Some morning quick maths (mini thread);

Israel announced that it was 181 ballistic missiles launched. Iranian media had a range from 200 to 400, but let’s go with 200 for argument as it’s closed to the 181 that Israel said and I doubt 200 odd missiles broke up mid air.

https://twitter.com/armscontrolwonk/status/1841985294368964944

200 - 181 =19 did 19 fail? Not sure, or was it actually 181 launched. Something to consider, but for this exercise I’ll use 181 and then you can add 19 on if you want.

181 - 32 = 149 left.

Initial low resolution satellite imagery from Nevatim Airbase this morning appears to show some damage around 31°12'15.7"N 35°02'19.7"E, which aligns with reports of a building being damaged. Not seeing anything else obvious, currently. Couple of annoying cloud shadows.

Another potential impact on the runway, and just south of it. Can't make up my mind on the one south of it, could be the change in light which can be observed on the larger structures.

Higher resolution required for this.

Multiple explosions are being reported across social media in Yemen currently, Zabid, Sa’ada and Al Hudaydah. Sa’ana has also reportedly been targeted according to multiple reports.

Reports of explosions around Damascus, #Syria. Possible #Israel|i strikes. AD is active.

After following the rhetorics and post event details of these drones for years in the Middle East seeing them now “in the wild” is truly something. The illusive Shahed’s doing their thing, in the public eye.

https://twitter.com/girkingirkin/status/1573276414664912897

The secretiveness of these drones is no more. No doubt radar data we’ll be analysed.

Initial reports of air defense activity over #Damascus, #Syria Guessing Damascus Intl. Airport has been targeted again, or the navaid.

Sat. Imagery courtesy of @planet from earlier today shows several vehicles on the runway at #Aleppo Intl. Airport, #Syria most likely conducting a repair (square cutover already) after the reported #Israel|i airstrike hours after #IRGC affiliated Yas Air Cargo EP-GOX landed. To the south of the runway you can see the damage caused to the DVOR/DME Navaid which also appears to be targeted.

Heavy scaring can be seen in both areas due to fires. Notably, personally, I’ve only twice seen a runway targeting have some heavy prominent scaring.

Initial reports of Air Defense activity over Masyaf, #Syria At least two air defense missile launches from Tartus region, #Syria.

Initial reports of an airstrike near Tartus, #Syria Multiple footage circulating of two objects in the skies over Lebanon, according to initial reports two IAF jets were heard over Sidon, Lebanon.

Multiple roof knocks being reported in several areas across #Gaza. Airstrike conducted after roof knocks.

#IDF says it is striking targets in #Gaza, emergency situation has be declared in #Israel|i homefront Initial image from northern #Gaza

Hezbollah’s initial window is starting to close, the commissioning of the Karish Field and the FPSO continues, unaffected at this time. Once commissioned targeting that FPSO poses a bigger environmental risk to the Mediterranean Sea.

https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1553662393137479687

Workers on the FPSO and drill rigs are likely from an international work force, so that’s a risk Hezbollah are also most likely taking into account as well.

This is completely different to the 2006 attack against the INS Hanit.

Initial reports of significant airstrikes in #Damascus, #Syria. At least 7 impacts reported. Considering the reports correlate around Qudssaya Area in North West #Damascus I am taking a guess at the SSRC being the potential target site. Area has been targeted numerous times.

Calculated risk by Hezbollah launching three drones at the FPSO during commissioning phase, means nothing was stored/being produced so if successful environmental damage/risk is lower, at the same time IDF/IAF capabilities being tested. Curiosity now is the incident in Syria Was the strike a response to the drone launch? Or was the launch in retaliation to the strike or we merely seeing cross events.

Earlier this morning at 0630 local time several explosions were heard in the southern Tartous region of #Syria. Cause is still currently unknown, damage has be caused by these explosions per included. No statement from Syrian MoD at this time. The area is question is reportedly farm land, greenhouses and poultry. Multiple posts across social media assume that this was a strike by Israel, it is worth noting if true and it was a strike (pending Syrian MoD) comments that it’s early hours on Saturday (Shabbat) are…

Initial reports of Air Defense activity over #Damascus, #Syria Intensive IAF aerial activity over northern #Israel.

Initial reports of a rocket attack against Ain Al-Assad Airbase, #Iraq. Reports of multiple 122mm rockets used. Expecting to see a photo of a burnt out Bongo Truck in the coming hours.

Initial reports of explosions heard in #Damascus, #Syria SyAAD reportedly engaging multiple missiles over Damascus, Syria

PIJ Saraya Al-Quds have revealed their drone called “Jenin” - first used in 2019 to observe and attack the IDF on the Gaza border. Looks like a mini Samad-3 drone which is used by the Houthi’s and derived from Iran’s IRGC tech.

Initial reports of air defense activity over #Damascus, #Syria At least 1 impact being reported so far.

IAF Aircraft back up over #Gaza it seems.

One Israeli reportedly received minor injuries from that last wave of rockets. IDF Spox: 4 rockets were launched from Gaza and intercepted.