Thread by @Mij_Europe

A brief thread on a few key questions that will likely define EU politics & issues in 2022 1/

Will Draghi transition from Italian PM to President? If he does, will it precipitate early elections & if so, will @GiorgiaMeloni of far-right Brothers lead the next Govt? What will be the implications for Italy's Recovery Plan - & relations with the EU? 2/

Could @vpecresse enter the Presidential election runoff against @EmmanuelMacron on 24 April? If so, will she beat him? If she did, Pécresse would then be the strongest centre-right leader in the EU: What would be the implications for the EU & Europe's centre-right? 3/

Can @markizaypeter beat Viktor Orban in April's Hungary's elections? Absent a super majority, how would any incoming opposition alliance unwind the institutional & regime constraints the Fidesz Govt has implemented over the last 10 years? 4/

Will @BorisJohnson face a leadership contest - & if yes, is it more likely in the first or second-half of next year? Conventional wisdom suggests @trussliz or @RishiSunak would be the most likely frontrunners for PM, but who would be the surprise candidate, if there was one? 5/

What would @trussliz vs @RishiSunak mean for a deal over the NI Protocol & relations with the EU more broadly? Would both necessarily improve the relationship - is it purely about degrees - or is there also downside? 6/

Is a major overhaul of EU fiscal rules likely? What form - new interpretative guidance or legislative amendments - will any changes take? Separately but related: Are discussions over a permanent fiscal capacity/Recovery Fund also likely to mature through the course of year? 7/

Is resolution to EU's Rule of Law standoff with Poland poss w/out (early) elections next yr? Same for Hungary. At what point are both likely to receive their Recovery Fund €bn? If they don't, will @EU_Commission be able to disburse other EU (eg structural/cohesion) funds? 8/

Could worst case scenario - no EU funds - begin to affect cost/benefit of EU membership? Alternatively: Wd any compromise with Poland & Hungary undermine confidence in Northern Europe over how Recovery Fund is being implemented, making it more difficult to make permanent? 9/

Interacting with all of these questions, of course, is the biggest unknown of all - Omicron & Covid. How & in what ways will that impact the political questions & issues raised above?
ENDS