Bitcoin is 13 years old today, the anniversary of the genesis block. It's an angsty teenager now, I suppose, which actually kind of fits.
The US dollar in its current fiat form is 50 years old, born in 1971.
Bitcoin is now more than 1/4th as old as the current US dollar.
Next year, Bitcoin will become half as old as "the Internet" as we know it. It seems to have some staying power, having lasted as long as it did thus far:
The foundations of the Internet were made in the 1970s and 1980s, the consumer browser was invented in the early 1990s, proof-of-work was invented in the 1990s, and SHA-2 encryption was published in 2001. Bitcoin itself was published in 2008 and released in 2009.
So in some ways, digital scarcity in the form of a distributed peer-to-peer ledger and consensus ruleset was an inevitable discovery.
However, the first successful implementation was unique in terms of its specific parameters, and thus is an invention.
Some bitcoin owners celebrate the network's anniversary with "Proof of Keys Day", where they take personal custody of the coins they own from exchanges.
Kind of like physical cash or gold, one of the attributes of Bitcoin is that an owner can take personal custody of it.
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People with demanding jobs spend their time in a few key ways:
-Advance at work in the tactical sense.
-Research and have random conversations and insights that boost your tactical work more dramatically.
-Recharge your batteries, refill your spirit, amplify your passion, etc.
All three (and more) are necessary.
Long-term productive people seem to be aware of all three, encourage tactical achievements, but also allow for subjective and longer-term insights, while acknowledging passions and family time.
In other words, work is important, but it has various components (completing TPS reports vs finding new insights), and is recharged by passion (family, hobbies, nature, life, etc).
To dominate at work requires a passion that exists outside of work, for one reason or another.
Stablecoins will become increasingly regulated, only allowed to hold nominally risk-free assets, if they want to connect to regulated, legal institutions.
This includes cash and Treasuries. As such, stablecoins are a way to monetize Treasuries.
In other words, if stablecoins are backed in part by Treasuries, and the stablecoin market cap continues to grow, this is a new source of demand for US government debt.
Cash and Treasuries of various durations get mixed together in a basket, blurring the line between them.
USDC, GUSD, and USDP have already gone this route.
USDT is the one that holds other types of assets as well, which are not backed by the full faith and credit of the US government.
Entities that don't conform to regulations are basically eurodollars- offshore dollars.
This chart shows the change in broad money supply per capita compared to the change in beef prices over 5-year rolling periods:
Meanwhile, the past 25 years had a big disconnect between M2 and CPI:
The question, in an imperfect world with imperfect metrics, is M2 or CPI the better metric between the two?
CPI changes its basket of goods and hedonic offsets over the calculation period. Meanwhile, M2 is more consistent but struggles with an opaque financial situation.
A lot of evidence shows that our lifestyles of looking at papers, screens, and phones indoors all day contributes to widespread deterioration in eyesight.
Now imagine if we work from home more, drive less, and wear VR goggles for hours a day...
And then of course we had the inverse correlation between technology and depression. Hunter gathers have rather rough lives but what we think of as depression is nearly nonexistent among them. They have plenty of exercise, decent diet, and frequent flow state.
Modern society requires that we make increasingly conscious choices to go outside, get exercise, and look into the distance, so that we can get the benefits of technology without the physical and mental deterioration that often comes with it.
Blue line is 10-year Treasury yields. Orange line is the annualized inflation-adjusted "real" rate of return if you bought a 10-year Treasury note that year and held it until maturity.
Bonds got killed on a real basis in all three inflationary decades (1910s, 1940s, 1970s).
If you compound -4% annual inflation-adjusted returns over a decade, you lose a third of your purchasing power on consumer goods by the end of the period.
And during that period, you probably lose more than that in terms of your purchasing power of prime capital goods.
So the bond market is "smart money" in that it does a good job of grasping tactical acceleration/deceleration moves, but isn't smart enough to avoid 30-40% losses of purchasing power over the course of a decade on three separate occasions.