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Tyler Black, MD Profile picture
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4 Jan, 5 tweets, 3 min read
This graph is now dynamically created based upon the latest @CDCofBC dashboard. #vaccineswork, even in the last month of this awful pandemic.

#stats #covidbc #bcpoli #epitwitter

/1 Image
Vaccination effectiveness dashboard

/2 Image
Raw data from @CDCofBC Image
This is closed to anon reply so that people can not tag on their own misinformation to my thread. Feel free to quote tweet it to whatever followers you have. If I follow you, feel free to reply!

I do this to STOP THE SPREAD OF MISINFORMATION about the pandemic.
Random internet jerk with 55 followers and a zillion number name saying "oh look at this clown and his clown statistics" not really what i'm interested in. If you want to challenge the data and you care to do so, quote tweet me and i'll see it.

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More from @tylerblack32

Tyler Black, MD Profile picture
4 Jan
/1 =-=-=-=-=-=-=-
Thread: Mortality in 2020 and myths
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

2020, unsurprisingly, came with excess death. There was an 18% increase in overall mortality, year on year.

But let's dive in a little bit deeper. The @CDCgov has updated WONDER, its mortality database. Image
/2 First, let's get you acquainted with my graph. It looks noisy because I wanted to give you the best data possible.

Graph: monthly rate of SUICIDE in the US, for every year going back to 1999. Teal represents 2019 and red 2020. Image
/3 I wanted you to see the trends, so there are 5 years 2014-2018 represented in the dark blue.

On the bottom, the summary of raw # of deaths 2019 vs 2020, and if this represents a significant difference (p<0.05) Image
Read 27 tweets
Tyler Black, MD Profile picture
31 Dec 21
Hi @FrontiersIn : A paper of yours (editor: @GetchellNancy) missed some very important (and honestly basic) statistical issues, and is contributing to a narrative that is not supported by the paper.

#twitterpeerreview
#reviewer2stepsinanddoesthejob
#statstwitter
The paper should have been challenged on review:

* why not iterate 1 year vs other 5 years for all years '16-20 (resolves all issues)
* why not challenge the finding in "communication at 1 year" increasing for 2020 when clearly the significance comes from the low 2017 #

/2
Had it done so, the conclusion of the paper would be markedly different: "2020 showed similar and expected fluctuations as has been seen in the prior 5 years in all domains," and it would not be used as evidence that "pandemic measures effects harm child development"

/3
Read 8 tweets
Tyler Black, MD Profile picture
31 Dec 21
The editorial process at @FrontiersIn makes a blunder. A study looking at "Developmental delays in children born during the pandemic" claims that fine motor delay and communication delay were seen comparing 2015-2019 & 2020.

This is very misleading. I see this mistake a lot.

/1
In fact, it is true that comparing 2020 to 2015-19 shows high anomalies in these two delays. But, if i compare 2016 to (2015, 2017-20) I would get the SAME significance testing. 2016 is worse than 2020 for fine motor and on par for communication.

/2
This is a case of a fallacy "cherry-picking."

The authors compared 2015-19 to 2020 but NOT:

2015 to 2016-20
2016 to 2015,2017-20
2017 to 2015-16, 2018-20
2018 to 2015-17, 2019-20
2019 to 2015-2018, 2020

And intentionally so, due to the cherrypicked "pandemic" situation.

/3
Read 12 tweets
Tyler Black, MD Profile picture
30 Dec 21
Vaccines for kids against COVID are VERY SAFE:

* 8.7m vaccines given to 5-11y
* 100 "serious side effects" in VAERS (**NOT** causative link) including myocarditis (15), for a myocarditis rate of 1 per 540000 (unsecure VAERS)
* 2 deaths, neither causal

/1
cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…
Using enrolled v-safe program, 42k kids received the vaccines. Normal, expected reactions occurred. 14 (0.02%) hospitaled following vaccine, and one of those was not actually hospitalized (error report).

No deaths. (AT LEAST 104 kids died of COVID during this time)

/2 Image
In another active surveillance program, out of 333,000 child vaccine doses given, NO cases of myocarditis 1-42 days after administration have been found. thats 0/333,000 doses.

/3
Read 5 tweets
Tyler Black, MD Profile picture
30 Dec 21
Good lord this harrassing-women-scientists doofus is awful. Nobody is anti-school (except kids, sometimes, who Eli doesn't actually care about). There is good reason to advocate for not having places of >30 people in a room congregating during a spike in the pandemic

/1
I am not anti school. I DO think that school has many unaddressed PREPANDEMIC stressors that the pandemic has worsened, but I also am a huge geek and did >20 years of the damn thing, as did all the PhDs he mocks and derides.

/2
Schools can safely be closed during periods of high transmission, and when they are open they need to be **safer and less stressful to kids**.

Covid safe would mean ventilation, smaller classes, different ways of learning, outdoor activities, and access to virtual tech.

/3
Read 5 tweets
Tyler Black, MD Profile picture
29 Dec 21
Lebron is 517 points from passing @kaj33 for all-time NBA/ABA points, combining playoffs + regular season. At his current pace, this occurs within 20 games.

A clear echelon of the top 5: Cap, LBJ, Karl, Kobe, MJ, with >3000 points to #6.

@KingJames #NBA75 #NBA #LakeShow
Lebron's about 100 games away from passing Kareem during the regular season, and absolutely dominates the record for the playoffs (nobody within 500 points).

/2
For active players gettin' there, KD likely cracks the top ten next season (98 games away at 27ppg). Carmelo could do it, but longevity will be the key, at his current rate of scoring he's likely 2 to 3 seasons away from the top ten.

/3
Read 5 tweets

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