Thread by @connolly_s

Since Conor is gone I thought I'd set up a bot to generate graphs of hospital admissions for Ireland from the Geohive data... so as an FYI wer are still less than half the level of hospitalization at the peak of 2021. Roughly similar to 2020's peak @EwanMacKenna @RealEddieHobbs

If we keep a running total (light blue) of the Covid admissions and discharges we see that the numbers in hospital seem to have about 50% admissions of Covid positive and 50% covid detected post admission, also appears to be some recovery but still in hospital during 2021?

In case it's non-obvious why I'm saying 50% tested positive after admission, it's these Oct 2020 and Jan 2021 differences between the dark blue curve (total in hospital) and the light blue curve (running sum of admissions with Covid minus discharges with Covid)

That the light blue line doesn't go back to 0 is because those people were not discharged while Covid positive

If we plot a different running sum, this time light blue is the discharges while covid positive and purple is the sum of new covid cases minus discharges. We are missing data on discharges from April 2021 to July 2021, but we can say something from this graph

During the Dec 2020-Apr 2021 wave, about 800 people were discharged while still Covid positive. This current wave, however, we have been able to keep those people in hospital after they have recovered from Covid... unclear if that is because Covid was incidental or not...

Here's admissions with a confirmed covid positive as a fraction of all new covid positives in hospital, this seems to be running about 70% but has been trending down towards 50% since November

Here's the graph for ICU, which thankfully seems to be trending downward in the current wave and we are less than half the levels we saw during the Dec 2020-April 2021 wave... that would seem to be good news

Here's another interesting graph. This is the percentage of hospitalized cases that are in ICU, which seems to have lowered significantly. There could be many reasons but given we have approx 300 ICU beds and only 1/3rd of them are Covid positive, probably not ICU pressure

Here's lab positives... today is 20154 on the back of 35402 tests

Here is the percentage of tests showing pcr positive. I think this may provide an explanation of the plateau of around 4k positives that we were seeing since Nov 11th... essentially it may just be that the number of tests done exactly rose at a rate to keep positive count at 4k!

These graphs are setup now to update at 4:10pm every day and you can find them at github.com/stephenc/2021-… which will always have the latest graphs (though it is dependent on how often geohive gets updated)