🚨🚨 Update: Our daily view is showing the (1) highest volatility in whales ratio since years. First it dumped hard indicating almost non tokens arriving by whales on exchanges, then it pumped hard indicating incoming whales inflows

and it dumped afterwards again. The (3) netflow chart is confirming those operations. First big outflows, big inflows afterwards and rising outflows later on again.
However, we had a total netflow of (minus) 2,666 BTC, indicating a bigger outflow from exchanges. Matches to the
price action as the price has started to lift up again after reaching our local bottom at $45.7k yesterday.

The whales ratio 30d average (2) keeps rising indicating more inflows arriving exchanges, while the (yellow curve) stablecoin reserve on exchanges are declining indicating
more stablecoin withdraws from exchanges, but with a rising (blue curve) stablecoin supply in general indicating a rising stablecoin demand.

Our hourly view gives us a better understanding of what is happening right now. Our (1) whales ration maintains very high between a range
of 0.70 - 1.00 (max) indicating whales tokens arriving to exchanges constantly. As soon the whales ratio falls heading 0.70 we pump afterwards and as soon it starts to pump heading 1.00 we dump. Usually whales ratio isn’t that accurate. It just indicates whales inflows to
exchanges, but an inflow to exchange doesn’t mean that they sell immediately afterwards. They can sell hours later or even days.

Anyway we can let confirm our whales ratio observations with our netflow chart showing (2) two big positive netflows (more inflows than outflows) but
four big negative netflows at the same time indicating more purchases. Two of them happend today and the last one happend last hour.

Our stablecoin chart is indicating less stablecoins on exchanges (5) since 12–25/12–29–2021 indicating more stablecoin withdraws on exchanges.
Stablecoin supply (4)keeps rising since 12–30–2021 indicating more stablecoin demand. Last but not least our (3) 30d average whales ratio on hourly basis showing a falling trend indicating the sell pressure is reducing since 01–02–2022.
We have almost $800m in stablecoins that leaved the exchanges since yesterday and almost $400m inflows to exchanges in the same period of time. That at least woud indicate different parties here being in action. Those selling their assets and withdrawing stablecoins afterwards
and those pushing the price up again with stablecoins buying the assets.
The total exhange reserves are falling more and more indicating big accumulation ops. We have reduced the reserves by 5,150 BTC since yesterdays Market Update, but we still have 9,500 BTC remaining from our last big inflows end of december.
Okex has declined its reserves by 300 BTC since yesterday. Also here we have almost 1,600 BTC still remaining on the exchange from our last big inflow from 12–31–2021. These tokens could be related to Huobi and Binance restriction for China Mainland holders due the crypto ban in

Bitfinex has rised its reserves by another 200 BTC since yesterday. Bringing the remaining tokens to a total volume of 3,300 BTC since its inflows from 12–23–2021.
Gemini was rising its reserves since EoY but reducing the reserves again. Since yesterday another 1,250 BTC has gone. However, also here keep in mind, we still have 6,450 BTC remaining there since their inflows from 12–21–2021.
Binance, the main driver of the dump phase. The only exchange that received a big amount of all inflows. It reduced its reserves again by 1,350 BTC since yesterday. While it had received almost 45,000 BTC between 12–23–2021 and 12–29–2021 it has recuced the remaining tokens from
that inflows to 33,150 BTC.

Option traders are trading the coming 28Jan2022 expiry and indicating big volume in calls. In the last 24h they traded options at $60k and $48k and even the Buy/Sell Volume (24h) showing an expected trading range between $44k and $50k. The traded
volume for this price range wasn’t that big, so maybe a good trend indicator, but at the moment too early to let us make any prediction related to a price level for end of the month.
That’s actually wondering me a bit. The volume for derivates within 24h isn’t that high. In the past we had daily volumes of almost $78b while at the moment at $66.5b. Also the Open Interest isn’t that high either. Spot market doing very well and maintaing it’s $35b — $40b range.
Checking the BTC Long/Short ratio and the funding rates it seems, the funding rates are flipping now back to bullish. That would also explain why we have pumped today. But since the last hour more longs are arriving, so funding rates will shift back to bullish again.
If we check our Future Data on hourly view we can see that traders are gabling again using (2) high leverage futures. The Leverage Ratio has rised a lot since 12–07–2021 and it doesn’t stop. While (1) funding rates looks neutral. Due the last pump they liquidated some (3) shorts,
but also nothing big.
Additional Informations
SPX and DXY looks solid at the moment. SPX has its bearish day and I would expect more dump at least heading its support at 4768 while DXY is back on track after its deviation.
Dates you should have in mind the next 2 weeks because they can have an impact to $DXY and $SPX, so also to crypto.
Personal Conclusion
The market keeps showing weak. We still have more incoming tokens by whales, even if they don’t send the same volume as in december, we still detect a lot of tokens on exchanges. We have stablecoins leaving the exchanges indicating whales selling their assets
At least that indicates their are preparing to buy the dip as the stablecoin supply didn’t decline yet. They hold stablecoin now, but didn’t send those back to treasury to convert in fiat. Only if the stablecoin supply start to fall while the exchange reserve of stablecoins
decline at the same time I would start to cry. At the moment it looks like they are preparing to buy the next big dip.
The only thing that doesn’t look great at the moment related to derivates is the leverage ratio imo. That let us rise the volatility to rekt all those high/1
leverage shorts and longs. That would also explain why option traders are expecting a rising volatility and maximizing their risk management with long gamma./2
So, as usual make your own trade strategy. These informations should help you to make your own conclusions and develop your own trade strategy. Detect your entry and exit(s) and always stick to your plan. Don’t let you guide by fear or by price action./3

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More from @InspoCrypto

6 Jan
🚨🚨 Update: Our hourly whales ratio chart (1) is showing the first time since 12-30-2021 a little dump indicating less incoming whales tokens. Interesting because at the same time we are detecting more incoming tokens as the total netflow (2) is showing bigger

#BTC #ETH #XRP Image
inflows. When we've a low whales ratio but a green netflow that means retailers are capitulating and selling their #BTC in fear. However, we are not done yet.

Since 01-01-2020 the 30d average whales ratio is falling indicating less whales related inflows. At least not constant
inflows from whales detected. Stablecoin reserves on exchanges has stabilized since 01-04-2022 while the stablecoin supply keeps rising indicating a rising demand. The data keeps looking bearish, but better than in december atm.

In the top chart we can see the total netflow 30d Image
Read 20 tweets
5 Jan
🚨🚨 Update: Today a quick market update as nothing have changed since yesterday. We still detect more incoming inflows from whales. The whales ratio maintains its level between 0.7 - 1.0. As soon we register bigger outflows, more inflows follows. Today we have

#BTC #ETH #XRP Image
registered more inflows than outflows. The stablecoin reserves on exchanges has rised a bit. I have received some whale alerts related to new stablecoin inflows to exchanges, but we have more outflows coming from #Binance again. Almost $510m stablecoin withdraw registered from Image
#Binance indicating whales selling their assets and withdrawn their stablecoins. If we don't detect some big inflows to treasury soon its almost confirmed that these whales want to stay to stablecoins to buy the dip afterwards. We have also detected $400m stablecoin inflows
Read 15 tweets
4 Jan
What if the recent dumps are related to the spot ETF rejection by SEC from November 12th? At least that could explain why #Bitfinex placed walls in the range of $38k - $46k. If so, that wouldn't be that bearish.

@SBF_FTX comments from your part?

Institutionals dumping the price in May to accumulate and prepare the launch or their Spot ETFs. China FUD as trigger to let retailers sell their tokens. When everybody was expecting the big dump to lower ranges 07-21-2021 #FTX starts to buy and pumped the price up
init a new rally heading upper 40s/50s. More China FUD follows to get more tokens from retailers. FOMOying with incoming Spot ETF to rise the price up and reach new ATH. November 12th SEC announcing their rejection citing concerns about the lack of regulation and the potential
Read 5 tweets
3 Jan
🚨🚨 Update: Our daily view is still showing a rising whales ratio indicating more whales inflows arriving on exchanges. Our total exchanges netflow also showing a positive netflow on exchanges (more inflows than outflows) of almost 850 #BTC. Since end of december

no more big inflows were detected. Also we can see a rising stablecoin supply but a declining stablecoin reserve on exchanges indicating more stablecoin outflows from exchanges. Also for me a sign, they are preparing a dip. As the stablecoin supply keeps rising no big volume
in stablecoins are arriving the treasury. So, not that bearish. However, that would also indicate, we are not done yet with our dumps. That matches very well with my current expectations.

If we switch to our hourly view we can see that our whales ratio maintain very high since
Read 16 tweets
2 Jan
Sometimes to detect certain OTC activity I usually use the Total Tokens tranferred on netwok indicator combined with the exchange counts indicators. Together they can show you potential OTC activity. The August pump was driven by #FTX and my theory is, the

rise of activity outside of exchanges (potential OTC, darknet, etc.) in August happen because #FTX huge transactions, a total of 40,000 #BTC. I have reported about that close after it happend. But the other 3 I have detected looks strange. They are related to dumps. Would be
interesting to know Genesis current data related to #BTC demand by institutionals. Because in their last report they mentioned that institutional demand is shifting from #BTC to #ETH. Until yet I thought our current dumps are related to the China mainland shut down, but what if
Read 6 tweets
2 Jan
🚨🚨 Update: Today just quick market view as no big changes happend since yesterday. We've started the year with extremely low volume, so also netflows no showing anything big.

Our hourly view shows a high whales ratio since the beginning of the new year.

#BTC #ETH #XRP Image
In the first 2 days we have detected to relatively big positive netflows, indicating more inflows than outflows to exchanges and one negative netflow in the beginning of the year. However, the netflow is showing us more inflows from whales are arriving to exchanges. The last big
netflow happend yesterday at 2 am (UTC +1) with almost 1,700 #BTC.

Also option trades didn't really change. At least nothing useful to let us predict certain price levels for January. Some of option traders have started to buy options for EoY 2022, their trade range between
Read 17 tweets

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