1) Despite the fact #COVID hospitalizations, ICU stays and deaths are surging once again in Quebec, several hospital mangers have told me that they’re cautiously optimistic this fifth wave will soon start subsiding. In this thread, I'll assess whether such optimism is justified.
2) Much of this optimism is based on the experience in South Africa, where #Omicron emerged in November. On Dec. 30, the South African government released a statement saying that “all indicators suggest the country may have passed the peak of a fourth wave at a national level."
3) What’s more, South African doctors were declaring less severe illness among those who contracted Omicron. Here, front-line doctors have been observing a similar trend in Quebec’s Omicron-driven wave.
4) The optimism in Quebec may also be based on what appears to be a drop in the number of #COVID outbreaks. The chart below shows clusters peaking on Dec. 20 at 2,185. Since then, the number has been dropping steadily, down to 1,192 on Wednesday. 
5) On Thursday, Health Minister Christian Dubé suggested that Quebec’s latest curfew might counter government projections that #COVID hospitalizations will surge to 3,000 within the next two weeks, and worse, breach intensive-care unit capacity.
6) So is this optimism justified? To answer this question, let us turn back to the situation in South Africa. Although new infections have been dropping in the past three weeks, the lagging indicator of deaths has been rising. See below.
7) The lesson to draw is that contrary to much media reporting that Omicron is mild, South Africa’s experience shows it's anything but. The World Health Organization reiterated Thursday that “just like previous variants, Omicron is hospitalizing people and it is killing people.”
8) Let us now turn to Denmark, a nation of 5.8 million, which began experiencing its Omicron wave a few weeks before Quebec. Denmark has administered a booster shot to 50.7% of its population as of Tuesday. That’s in contrast to 20% thus far in Quebec.
9) As the chart below shows, the Omicron wave has not yet started to subside in Denmark. The country’s top health official, Tyra Grove Krause, warned this week that the wave will last another two months in her country.
10) All this suggests that this cautious optimism in Quebec among certain hospital managers may not be justified. According to tracking by Reuters, average #COVID infections have been increasing in the past two weeks all around the world. See the chart below.
11) The upshot is Quebec must do everything in its power to stop the spread of Omicron, which is as contagious as an invisible smoke. For that reason, Quebec should consider following Ontario in providing N95 masks to school staff. End of thread. Stay safe and get your booster.
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