Thread by @ClimateAudit

Here's a startling graph illustrating a point that people are beginning to talk about, but not visualizing well. And showing that concepts from 6 weeks ago aren't applying. Changes in ratio of new cases PER 100K of fully vax to unvax.

data is from Ontario, but it sounds like US experience is at least directionally similar. Vaccines were doing excellent (even if not perfect) job against cases, not just against ICU and hospitalization. In midDecember, with arrival of omicron, advantage disappeared, then reversed

the erosion of relative advantage of fully vax to unvax in respect to non-ICU hospitalization also began in mid-December, eroding rapidly. Opinions based on data prior to mid-December are no longer valid.

as an editorial comment, these graphs have certain distinctive, shall we say, Hockey Stick shape. An issue that readers of the original Climate Audit blog will appreciate.

@celliottability @fordnation

I wonder if climate hockey stick advocates are also COVID vaccine hockey stick deniers.

in this graph, I've plotted 1- Full_Vax_NewCases_Per_100K/Unvax_NewCases_Per_100K as a measure of vaccine "effectiveness" relative to CASES. Related to but different from "seriousness". By this measures, vax were ~85% "effective" in Sept, sliding to ~75% effective in Nov/earlyDec

starting in mid-December, the "effectiveness" of vaccines against infection eroded to nothing by three days before Christmas and then, in less than a week, became about 30% negative for past two weeks.

A similar pattern appears to be occurring in other jurisdictions.

what about boosters? Data on cases per 100K boosted is thus far unavailable in Ontario (where I live. Most boosters in Ontario have been given in past 5 weeks, so this campaign has (oddly) coincided with the erosion of case protection for fully_vax.

It's entirely possible that boosters do achieve case effectiveness ratios similar to those observed in September. But, be that as it may, nobody expected the dramatic and sudden decline in case effectiveness that we've experienced in past three weeks.

such data (or corresponding US data) seems relevant to the astonishingly disconnected debate at US Supreme Court on vaccine mandates. As matters stand, mere "full vaccination" doesn't do anything to stop the spread of Omicron. So it doesn't protect fellow workers (or Grandma)

thus far, vaccination appears to be holding up as firewall against severe illness, a less broad but still important objective. (But even here, disquietingly, not as well as before). But that's a different argument.

the view of some US Supreme Court justices (and Canadian politicians) that vaccine mandates would lead to overnight disappearance of disease was over-egged with Delta, but, in respect to Omicron, has reached cargo cult anti-science.

I had personally hoped and expected that at ~70% vaccination, the R factor would decrease and extinguish the vaccine. But that's long in the rear view mirror.

as an important perspective, a thoughtful Ontario doctor observes that Omicron, despite the data, is considerably less virulent than Delta. Staffing issues for hospitals arise from cases among staff, but these will be transient issues

https://twitter.com/DrJacobsRad/status/1479865262371393540

Ontario does provide rate data stratified by agegroup and vax status. Below is vaccine "efficacy" (1- full_vax_rate/unvax_rate) for agegroups 12-60, each showing erosion phenomenon. Younger and older not shown due to data "wrangling" issues - see next tweet.

in Ontario, vaccination rates over 70 are so high that unvax population is miniscule; vax of under 12 began only recently. Comparison of full_vax rate to unvax rate in both agegroups raises data "wrangling" issues that I don't have time to do right now.

be that as it may, the almost overnight erosion of vaccine protection against cases for the large population between 12 and 60 is clearly what's driving the casedemic.

as to hospitalizations and ICU, ICU occupancy for Delta and COVID Classic were dominated by 60-90 age range and I suspect that will remain true. This agegroup in Ontario is highly boosted.