Thread by @celiabelin

Happy New Year! This week we take a look at shifting political dynamics in France under Omicron. [Who would have predicted that COVID would become, once again, a central feature of French politics?] A #FrenchFriday thread with @BlochAgneska. 1/17

Up until Omicron, @EmmanuelMacron had mostly succeeded in steering the boat through the storm -- the digital health pass by & large adopted. His critics remained focused on early stumbles (mask shortages) while Le Pen rode anti-COVID pass tide with her slogan “Libertés chéries”2/

Up until Omicron, the topics dominating the campaign were reflective of the far right’s domination in public discourse: immigration, security, national identity. The obsession was fed by Zemmour’s rise and embraced by Valerie Pécresse. 3/

(@vpecresse this week revived a 2005 Sarkozy formulation, who, in the aftermath of the killing of an 11-year old boy by a stray gunshot, said the neighborhood should be “"cleaned out with a Kärcher" [a “high-pressure water clean up].”) 4/ lemonde.fr/election-presi…

(That said, many voters are sick of hearing about these issues, which strike them as tone-deaf. @ifop polling from early December shows that 6 French out of 10 agree that “questions related to identity occupy too much space in the public debate in France”) ifop.com/wp-content/upl…

But Omicron has steered the campaign in new, unpredictable directions. Similar to the US, the current wave is threatening to overwhelm hospital capacity, and disrupt the economy due to quarantine/isolation rules. 6/

This week, the debate raged in the @AssembleeNat over the gov’s latest proposal to adopt a #PasseVaccinal -- starting Jan 15, full 2-dose vaccination (or covid recovery) would be required to access restaurants, cinemas, transports... After Feb 15: *three* doses needed. 7/

This would replace the #PasseSanitaire, available since June 9, which allowed access to services and public places with either proof of full vaccination OR a 24-hour negative test OR a proof of recovery from COVID within the past 6 months. 8/ gouvernement.fr/pass-sanitaire…

The Passe would mean that the unvaccinated will have no more access to these public places -- or that full vaccination becomes de facto compulsory. As the Passe was being debated, Macron doubled down with provocative words in a @le_Parisien interview 9/
leparisien.fr/politique/euro…

Standing out was his declaration that he wants to “emmerder les non-vaccinés”.
Setting aside the now stale debate on how to translate Macron’s vulgar expression (piss off? hassle? annoy?), the language reveals a change of tone from the President. 10/ theguardian.com/world/2022/jan…

Macron makes the bet that the 77% of French people who have received two doses (including 36% who are now boosted), but are tired of this latest wave of COVID, would have no problem with his condemnation of the unvaccinated. 11/ covidtracker.fr/vaccintracker

Risky? Depends who you ask. Macron & his camp are happy about his crude language. Polling conducted on Jan 4-5 revealed that 54% of French thought that the health pass should be transformed into a vaccine pass “as quickly as possible.”12/ ifop.com/wp-content/upl…

Macron & his camp also believe they have exposed the contradictions of Valerie Pécresse (whose camp is divided on the #PasseVaccinal) and they want to provoke the far right, who jumped on the opportunity to denounce Macron himself. 13/

https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1478698462740951040

Yet the typically Macronesque disruption contradicts his own narrative from a Dec TV interview when he claimed to have changed, preaching benevolence and respect… Soon entering the race, Macron has clearly not yet decided whether he wants to be a fighter or a uniter. 14/

The expression also over-politicizes the difficult transition to a Passe Vaccinale, radicalizing the issue. Yet, emergency measures being approved to deal with the crisis are not immune to criticism, as exposed by the Défenseur des droits. 15/
defenseurdesdroits.fr/fr/communique-…

This independent administrative agency defending citizens' rights points to the risk of a lack of proportionality, the loss of civil liberties, the vulnerability of minors, the need to prevent discrimination & to provide exceptions to the Passe. 16/

With the elections just 3 months away, debates are getting increasingly heated. For now, Omicron has ousted security as the top political issue. But two years of the COVID crisis should have taught us humility: no bet is ever really a sure one any more. [end]