Thoughts on #devomax debate from international & EU perspective.

Hard to separate foreign/external policy from domestic policy, yet more so for EU policy. States will deal with UK when making treaties whatever its constitutional set-up.

1/
There are federal states that give sub-states some power over trade or migration (notably Belgium, Canada) but requires clear federal interactive structures. Prof Michael Keating @CCC_Research leading expert on this
2/
archive.scottish.parliament.uk/s3/committees/…
Despite SNP rebuffs to devomax this week, Scottish govt has produced several papers on strong devomax in Brexit context, notably its first Scotland’s Place in Europe paper in 2016 and subsequent papers on migration & other topics
3/

gov.scot/publications/s…
Scot gov idea of Scotland in EU single mkt & UK was never tested, as dismissed by UK govt. No-one I’ve talked to in EU thinks EU wd have agreed to this post-2016 or to a more limited version of NI protocol for Scotland which is v specific to island of Ireland, peace process
4/
Being in single mkt & not EU wd mean strong regulatory border Scotland-rUK & taking EU rules instead of UK rules – no single internal UK mkt. Countries like Spain, France etc wd not give this degree of autonomy to a substantial 3rd country sub-state, nor want to set precedents
5/
EU has a lot of diffferentiation internally & to some extent externally. Excellent summary by @AlynSmith & @davidmartinmep Clear this is linked to interests of EU member states – overseas territories, micro states, specific contexts eg Gibraltar, NI.
6/
d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/alynsmith/page…
Even in 2014, devomax wd have been highly limited unless major changes in how UK took decisions in EU; EU laws affect wide range of domestic policies. Asymmetric federalism unlikely to help v much here.

7/
Where does this leave devomax on international/EU side? There is considerable scope for Scotland as a sub-state to have, as it does, an external affairs policy. More cd be devolved on this. But there is no obvious route to being a third country sub-state in EU single mkt

8/
There is no way, if indy Scotland was in EEA or EU, to avoid substantial regulatory border with rUK (& customs one if EU). Starmer/Brown cd suggest some increased powers over trade/migration but while Labour accepts Brexit, then only route back to EU or to single mkt is indy.
9/
We live in an interdependent world. Domestic & international policies overlap enormously: climate change, trade, human rights, migration & more. Any serious devomax debate wd need to take account of this. EU membership wd still need independence.
10/

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More from @KirstyS_Hughes

21 Jun 21
How does Brexit look 5 years on from & for Scotland?
Scotland didn’t vote for Brexit – 62% voted remain.
Scottish Government and public views were essentially ignored by UK government under both May and Johnson.

1/9
Scottish economy damaged by Brexit across a range of sectors from fisheries to tourism to culture especially since Trade and Cooperation Agreement implemented start 2021. Loss of EU free movement v damaging to Scottish economy & society.
2/9
In 2018, Scotland exported 53% of its exports to European destinations (EU+Norway, Switzerland & Turkey). Over 60% of Scotland’s exports to EU were in manufacturing goods. Exports now facing substantial costs and non-tariff barriers.

3/9
Read 9 tweets
29 May 21
UK govt gearing up to pressure Scottish & other devolved admins on European & international offices. A sort of crazed control-freakery (not sure what happened to love-bombing).
More seriously, perfectly normal for regions & sub-states to have Brussels & international offices.
1/8
Bavaria has a Brussels office, so does Quebec, Catalonia etc. This is more about rampant Tory unionism, & fear of Scottish govt para diplomacy, including not least its successful Brussels, Berlin, Dublin & Paris offices & manifesto commitment to open a Nordic/Baltic hub
2/8
These Scottish hubs promote Scottish interests in diverse ways, such as research links, culture, climate change cooperation (eg discussions in Germany on hydrogen power). And yes ministers may sometimes touch on politics when talking to European & international interlocutors.
3/8
Read 8 tweets
24 Jan 21
As SNP set out 11 point plan to indyref, a few comments on route to independence in EU - drawing on in-depth research interviews across many EU member states.
There is a clear path to re-joining EU if independence done in legal, constitutional way with agreement Edinburgh-London
There's more understanding of Scottish independence in EU now than in 2014 but also a wide range of views - EU govts do not look at the fragmentation of the UK as positive (UK has caused enough trouble via Brexit) but if Scotland was independent then EU wd be pragmatic
Whether section 30 order or other route to independence, EU member states & Brussels, will be looking for political agreement between Edinburgh & London, an agreed divorce, rUK recognition of iScotland. This is especially important for Spain but for others too.
Read 9 tweets
24 Dec 20
Implications of EU-UK deal for Scot govt aim
of indy in EU?
- no tariffs or quotas iScot-rUK but plenty of customs checks & bureaucracy, but some trusted traders scheme etc
- iScot wd benefit, as rest of EU, from level-playing field controls
- challenges on services trade espec.
What is clear is that the new 1246 page EU-UK treaty will set a big chunk of future iScotland-rUK relations if iScotland does rejoin the EU. But given limited services access, there will also be much to negotiate bilaterally on services (& on non-EU issues).
So the future potential iScotland-rUK border becomes much clearer through the EU-UK agreement, albeit iScotland in EU wd likely be in the UK/Ireland common travel area, & the relationship EU-UK will doubtless evolve to some extent (or more depending on future UK govts)
Read 8 tweets
25 Nov 20
New @scer_eu Policy Paper: EU Views of the UK, the future EU-UK relationship & UK's constitutional strains
1/10
scer.scot/database/ident…
EU Views of UK: both appalled, concerned & pragmatic; see UK, since 2016, as unreliable, unpredictable, untrustworthy, as having lost influence, & harming itself in multiple ways.
Yet, EU still wants close, constructive relationship building on a basic deal.
2.
EU open door in Brussels & member states to more foreign & security policy cooperation w UK but anticipate more ad hoc UK approach for ideological reasons, EU bemused by 'global Britain' concept. Less readiness to rapidly negotiate closer economic ties in short term

3.
Read 10 tweets
23 Jan 20
EU views on upcoming UK-EU relationships talks from my Brussels visit this week:
Core mantra: deal to be done is 'level-playing field for free trade agreement'. No tariffs/quotas is big offer & not given for nothing back. Governance is key.
UK now weaker partner.

Thread

1.
Much concern on level-playing field as v brief commitment in political declaration to 'uphold the common high standards' at end of transition on state aid, competition, social/labour standards, environment, climate change & 'relevant tax matters'.
2.
Concerns too at UK's regulatory divergence goal. What does this mean in principle? Lack of understanding in some quarters of even the basic point that goods coming into EU mkt must meet its regulations.
Aim at dynamic alignment on state aids, prob also tax will be v tough
3.
Read 14 tweets

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