How does Brexit look 5 years on from & for Scotland?
Scotland didn’t vote for Brexit – 62% voted remain.
Scottish Government and public views were essentially ignored by UK government under both May and Johnson.

1/9
Scottish economy damaged by Brexit across a range of sectors from fisheries to tourism to culture especially since Trade and Cooperation Agreement implemented start 2021. Loss of EU free movement v damaging to Scottish economy & society.
2/9
In 2018, Scotland exported 53% of its exports to European destinations (EU+Norway, Switzerland & Turkey). Over 60% of Scotland’s exports to EU were in manufacturing goods. Exports now facing substantial costs and non-tariff barriers.

3/9
Scotland’s security & European relationships incl. its para-diplomacy negatively affected by damage UK govt inflicted on UK’s reputation & on relations with European allies incl on foreign policy & domestic security cooperation. 'Global Britain' is an English ideology

4/9
Scottish government proposals including staying in EU single market, devolving more migration powers to Scotland & staying in Erasmus programme all simply rejected with little or no discussion by UK government.

5/9
Devolution seriously weakened by the process & practice of Brexit – lack of genuine consultation, limited information provision, refusal of any differentiation for Scotland. Power grab of Internal Market Act.

6/9
Repeated refusal of UK govt to allow 2nd independence referendum despite Brexit & repeated Scottish National party success in Westminster and Holyrood elections. Support for independence now roughly 50:50. Shift from some remain/no voters to backing yes over last 5 years.
7/9
Independence is now a choice between two (different) unions in a way it wasn’t in 2014. Lot of sympathy in EU for Scotland but neutrality from member states on indy. Path back to EU relatively straightforward but indy given Brexit means harder Scotland-rUK border

8/9
In essence, in handling Brexit, UK govt has acted in response to splits & power balance within the Tory party & with an eye to its voters while promoting an illusory ideology. Brexit has damaged Scotland in a range of ways, deepened UK’s fragmentation & undermined devolution.
9/9

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More from @KirstyS_Hughes

29 May
UK govt gearing up to pressure Scottish & other devolved admins on European & international offices. A sort of crazed control-freakery (not sure what happened to love-bombing).
More seriously, perfectly normal for regions & sub-states to have Brussels & international offices.
1/8
Bavaria has a Brussels office, so does Quebec, Catalonia etc. This is more about rampant Tory unionism, & fear of Scottish govt para diplomacy, including not least its successful Brussels, Berlin, Dublin & Paris offices & manifesto commitment to open a Nordic/Baltic hub
2/8
These Scottish hubs promote Scottish interests in diverse ways, such as research links, culture, climate change cooperation (eg discussions in Germany on hydrogen power). And yes ministers may sometimes touch on politics when talking to European & international interlocutors.
3/8
Read 8 tweets
24 Jan
As SNP set out 11 point plan to indyref, a few comments on route to independence in EU - drawing on in-depth research interviews across many EU member states.
There is a clear path to re-joining EU if independence done in legal, constitutional way with agreement Edinburgh-London
There's more understanding of Scottish independence in EU now than in 2014 but also a wide range of views - EU govts do not look at the fragmentation of the UK as positive (UK has caused enough trouble via Brexit) but if Scotland was independent then EU wd be pragmatic
Whether section 30 order or other route to independence, EU member states & Brussels, will be looking for political agreement between Edinburgh & London, an agreed divorce, rUK recognition of iScotland. This is especially important for Spain but for others too.
Read 9 tweets
24 Dec 20
Implications of EU-UK deal for Scot govt aim
of indy in EU?
- no tariffs or quotas iScot-rUK but plenty of customs checks & bureaucracy, but some trusted traders scheme etc
- iScot wd benefit, as rest of EU, from level-playing field controls
- challenges on services trade espec.
What is clear is that the new 1246 page EU-UK treaty will set a big chunk of future iScotland-rUK relations if iScotland does rejoin the EU. But given limited services access, there will also be much to negotiate bilaterally on services (& on non-EU issues).
So the future potential iScotland-rUK border becomes much clearer through the EU-UK agreement, albeit iScotland in EU wd likely be in the UK/Ireland common travel area, & the relationship EU-UK will doubtless evolve to some extent (or more depending on future UK govts)
Read 8 tweets
25 Nov 20
New @scer_eu Policy Paper: EU Views of the UK, the future EU-UK relationship & UK's constitutional strains
1/10
scer.scot/database/ident…
EU Views of UK: both appalled, concerned & pragmatic; see UK, since 2016, as unreliable, unpredictable, untrustworthy, as having lost influence, & harming itself in multiple ways.
Yet, EU still wants close, constructive relationship building on a basic deal.
2.
EU open door in Brussels & member states to more foreign & security policy cooperation w UK but anticipate more ad hoc UK approach for ideological reasons, EU bemused by 'global Britain' concept. Less readiness to rapidly negotiate closer economic ties in short term

3.
Read 10 tweets
23 Jan 20
EU views on upcoming UK-EU relationships talks from my Brussels visit this week:
Core mantra: deal to be done is 'level-playing field for free trade agreement'. No tariffs/quotas is big offer & not given for nothing back. Governance is key.
UK now weaker partner.

Thread

1.
Much concern on level-playing field as v brief commitment in political declaration to 'uphold the common high standards' at end of transition on state aid, competition, social/labour standards, environment, climate change & 'relevant tax matters'.
2.
Concerns too at UK's regulatory divergence goal. What does this mean in principle? Lack of understanding in some quarters of even the basic point that goods coming into EU mkt must meet its regulations.
Aim at dynamic alignment on state aids, prob also tax will be v tough
3.
Read 14 tweets
22 Oct 19
Government WAB impact assessment full of holes but look at detail on GB-NI trade - East-West, West-East or from outside EU.
56% of NI external trade in goods is w GB, 27% w EU.
Freight transfer NI-GB 17.6 million tonnes of which 35% is NI-Scotland
1/

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Tariffs will apply East-West i.e. GB to NI unless goods not at risk of entering EU. Import Declarations & Entry Summary declarations both needed E-W - this is the EU customs border. So rule of origin apply too. And then regulatory compliance.
2/
And as @SamuelMarcLowe has pointed out NI, like GB, faces major negative impact on services.
Not obvious why NI would somehow become a super hot FDI destination given all this plus associated uncertainty
3/
Read 6 tweets

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