IMHO, events in #Kazakhstan in the past week have undermined Putin's argument that #Russia has a right to a 'sphere of influence' in the former Soviet space. This will weaken Russia's negotiating position in the upcoming talks.
I will explain why.
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Putin's notion of Russia's 'area of privileged interest' is based on the narrative that Moscow acts as the stabilising force in the region. If the Kremlin is allowed to keep countries in its sphere of influence, they will be stable, with low levels of violence.
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Kazakhstan was a political, military and economic ally of Putin's Russia for the past 30 years. The only competition which Russia experienced there was not with the West, but with China - and mostly in economic / trade matters.
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On Tuesday, #Russia's state-owned Gazprom did not book any additional gas transit capacity via #Ukraine for August 2021, for the fourth month in a row.
Gazprom opted to not book additional capacity via Ukraine even during the stoppage of gas deliveries to the EU during planned maintenance of Yamal-Europe and Nord Stream pipelines earlier this summer.
#Ukraine thread. Kyiv International Institute for Sociology (KIIS) published its latest opinion #poll.
According to the poll, only 19.8% of Ukrainians were willing to vote for incumbent @ZelenskyyUa in a presidential election. Reminder: he was elected with 72% in Apr 2019.
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Zelenskyi's party, the ruling Servant of the People, which won majority in parliament in July 2019, fairs even worse.
With 11.2%, it ranks 4th in electoral preferences, behind pro-Russian OPFL, Poroshenko's YeS and Tymoshenko's Fatherland:
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According to the poll, 74.3% of Ukrainian respondents think that Ukraine is moving in the wrong direction. This figure is 90.7% in the government-controlled areas of Donbas:
#Ukraine THREAD. KIIS, a prominent Ukrainian pollster, published its latest study of political views and preferences of the electorate based on October 2020 opinion polls. More below.
THREAD on Ukraine's Constitutional Court ruling from 27 October, when it ruled that it was unconstitutional to hold public officials criminally liable for intentionally providing deliberately false information on asset declarations.
It also rescinded several powers of the National Agency for Preventing Corruption (NAZK). The CC ruled as unconstitutional the NAZK’s powers to verify asset declarations and monitor officials’ lifestyles for signs of corruption.
Free public access to officials' declarations was also made illegal, as were e-declarations meant to increase transparency. The CC rescinded NAZK’s right to access registers, draft reports on violations, and conduct anti-corruption inspections in government agencies.
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Given that I am currently in the middle of the old #Lemko country, here's a thread on who are Lemkos. They were an ethnic group residing in Western Carpathians along the current border between Poland and Slovakia
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2/x Lemkos affiliation with other ethnicities is controversial, although individual Lemkos generally self-identify as a sub-group of Ruthenians and/or Ukrainians. Other ethnic groups identifying as Ruthenians and/or Ukrainian include the Boykos and Hutsuls.
3/x The spoken language of the Lemkos has been variously described as a language in its own right, a dialect of Rusyn or a dialect of Ukrainian. But due to proximity to speakers of Polish and Slovak, the Lemko speech was strongly influenced by these two languages.