Thread by @RaleighWx

Local Weather 1) Decreasing clouds today with temps rising into the mid to upper 40s this afternoon. Cold and dry Tues/Wed. Low 23 High 40, low 23 on Tues. Low 20 High 49 on Wed. As a disturbance move east, it will go negatively tilted Thursday and spawn low pressure development

2) Off the Carolinas coast. I have been watching this all weekend, but for now it looks to stay far enough offshore to only bring some showers to the immediate coastal areas. For now, P. Cloudy for RDU, Thurs: High 54, Low 29. P. Cloudy Friday: High 49, Low 31.

3) Sat looks dry, High 43, Low 26. We will need to watch a system behind the prev storm which could dive further S, thanks to the previous storm blowing up off the NE coast. If it can dig far enough south and tap Gulf moisture we could see wintry weather here Sunday.

4) Yesterdays 12z ECMWF was a pretty significant system. The 00z ECMWF was flatter/weaker and a bit further south, but still impactful and there is decent support from the 00z EPS members (06z EPS mean and 00z EPS members shown). The 00z UKMET at day 6-7 also shows it.

5) 00z GFS showed enough digging to bring some light snow, the 06z GFS keyed more on the s/w behind it and and just brought light rain to the coast Mon. The 00z CMC didnt dig the s/w far enough south and we saw more of a basic frontal passage with rain. Which scenario is right?

6) Right now, I favor the ECMWF/EPS/UKMET solution, but lets see if we can get one more run today at 12z to support it. There is some support from the 06z GEFS as well. For now, something to watch for Sunday time frame but not honk for quite yet.

7) Decreasing clouds Monday, Temps will depend to an extend to what happens the day before. For now, I will go with high of 45, low of 28. It looks dry thru Wednesday with colder than normal temps. Highs in the mid 40s lows in the upper 20s to near 30.

8) Another time frame to watch is the 1/20-1/21 time frame. The ensemble members show some support for a wintry threat then, the operational models have been all over the place, so no solid feel yet but a time to watch.

9) The pattern in the 1/20-1/24 time frame will continue to feature strong ridging in the GOA and a trough over southern Canada and the central and eastern US. The EPS wants to start to build the SE ridge by 1/25, but the GEFS/GEPS dont yet.

10) The 5 day 2m T anomaly is below. We could see some big cold in the Upper Midwest/Lakes. The models arent showing as big a threat for a plunge of this south/east today, keeping the coldest air w.r.t normal over the Midwest. But still a cold pattern and one to watch.

11) I still think we turn warmer by the very end of Jan and Feb. The GEFS-ext, CFS-weeklies, and EPS-weeklies show this. The MJO loitering in phase 7 also supports this look in Feb. For now, we wait to see if that starts consistently showing late in the ensemble runs.