1) I looked at the individual EPS members at 12z. And grouped them into 3 scenarios. Op model idea (close to coast or inland track), ENS mean idea (offshore track), and other which is mostly a really suppressed track. I came up with Group 1: 21 Group 2: 22 Group 3: 7 #snow
2) I think this is a better way to look at the ensemble to see what scenario is favored. For now, it is 50:50 mostly with the outside chance we have a much more suppressed solution. I will try and update this each cycle to see how we trend.
3) Same exercise with the 12z GEFS. The GEFS had more scenarios though. The original 3, but option 4 (Slider) as the surface low move ENE out to sea south of Hatteras. And the 5th a more NW flow event with the northern stream dominant, similar to yesterday. I came up with:
4) Option 1: 7 member Option 2: 8 members Option 3: 4 members Option 4: 9 members Option 5: 2 members. Surprising to see the "slider" option as high as the other two option. Granted option 3 is just a less amplified version of option 2 much less amplified than option 1.
5) Again I will track this to see if we start to trend towards 1 scenario. The ensemble mean can sometimes hide the details of what the members are really showing.
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