1) So for this weekend storm. Right now, to me it looks to have 3 potential paths. 1. The GFS/CMC path which is that there is enough separation between the storm ahead and disturbance behind that the s/w cuts off and becomes neg titled This leads to the big storm idea GFS/CMC
2) Path 2, favored by the ECMWF/UKMET Is that the shortwave cant become neutral or negatively but is positively tilted This is a weaker, flatter, further south scenario Significant strengthening is slower and off shore. This could still bring wintry weather to the South, but less
3) Path 3 not shown, but still possible is that the northern stream is stronger and we see more of a strong clipper/low pressure type event, like yesterdays models implied. This would still bring some snow, but with less Gulf/Atlantic moisture involved and focused more on NC/VA
4) The 00z GFS solution was an extreme event and thus unlikely, but a more amplified/stronger storm is a very possible solution. You can see the 3 possible outcomes in the ens members. RDU shown, some big hits, some moderate, a few with nothing. But most with something. 
5) I still think the chances of seeing some wintry precip is high this weekend for many in our region. I think the 00z ECMWF is too far south/suppressed but the 00z GFS was too amped/extreme. However, a strong system scenario is possible and not crazy or fantasy.
6) Hopefully we get some more clarity in the models today but that is where I see things as of now. Reason to be excited, but certainly not a done deal. Look for the normal daily post to come out soon but wanted to get this out first.
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