You know you're overstating the role that GDP can play as a welfare metric when you say the economy as a whole is stronger now than before the pandemic...
There are fewer jobs, more unemployment, more inflation, more government debt, more bankruptcies, worse schooling, less access to healthcare, worse mental health, greater illness and 800,000 lost souls.

This isn't political—it's the virus's fault.

But the economy ain't stronger
The lesson here is that anytime you talk about "the economy" without talking about actual people and their lives, you're inviting faulty reasoning.

The economy is us. If our lives aren't better, the economy's not better.
Think about it this way: Who among us wouldn't trade our present circumstances for those in late 2019? Sure some people have gained. And some of our losses are partly offset by other gains. But I suspect the vast majority of us would choose the pre-pandemic version of our lives.

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More from @JustinWolfers

7 Jan
December payrolls report shows disappointing job growth of only +199k in December, well below expectations.

Unemployment fell a couple of ticks to 3.9%.

And revisions suggest the past couple of months were a bit better than feared.
Revisions punched November's number up from +210k to +249k, and October up from +546k to +648k. Those upward revisions -- and the prospect that December's number is likely to be revised up -- put a somewhat sunnier glow on these disappointing numbers.
Over the past three months payrolls employment has grown, on average, by +365k per month, which is okay, but not the sort of growth you might hope for.

And the past two months are consistent with a real slowdown in the recovery.

Remember, these are all pre-Omicron data.
Read 14 tweets
5 Nov 21
October's payrolls report shows a resumption to growth: +XX351Xk jobs added, which changes the narrative a bit after a disappointing September.

Unemployment is down a touch to 4.6%, which is pretty remarkable after it fell dramatically last month.

THIS IS A GOOD JOBS REPORT.
Revisions are a game changer.

Previous we had thought employment growth had slowed to +194k in September. Revised to +312k. Likewise August revised from +366k to +483k.

Employment growth has now averaged +442k over the past three months.
If you don't revise your views about the state of the recovery after this jobs report, you're not really evidence-based.

The Fall hiccup is now at best a Fall deep breath.
Read 16 tweets
11 Oct 21
The credibility revolution in economics.
Short version of the prize: We used to dig into the data, say "correlation ain't causation," quickly forget we said that, and make a bunch of causal-ish statements based on data that really couldn't support such claims.
Then David, Josh and Guido said: Hang on.

Their response wasn't the usual destructive "we can't make causal claims" stuff, but rather entirely constructive: Here's a toolkit and set of approaches to help you make credible causal claims.
Read 21 tweets
8 Oct 21
Oh dear.

Non-farm payrolls in September rose by only +194k, after +366k last month.

The recovery has stalled.

We're missing about 8 million jobs, and at this rate, we're not bringing them back any time soon.
Slightly brighter news in the revisions: Last month's gains were revised from +235k to +366k. The previous month's gains were revised up by an additional +38k. So the prior two months were in total +169k better than we thought.

But this month is about 300k worse than we hoped.
The unemployment rate fell from 5.2% to 4.8%, but celebrations on this score would be premature, as it partly reflects the labor force shrinking by about -183k.

Household survey is slightly sunnier than the payrolls survey, showing employment growth of +526k.
Read 10 tweets
23 Sep 21
Stunning new estimates suggest that the 400 wealthiest American families paid an average Federal tax rate of only 8.2%. whitehouse.gov/cea/blog/2021/…
Here’s why:
1. The rich rely on investment income, which is taxed at lower rates than labor income.
2. They pay no income tax on a big chunk of their investment income. (This is the “stepped up basis” loophole.)
This new estimate does something quite important: It analyzes a measure of income that includes unrealized capital gains. The rich earn a lot of this income, but because it’s difficult to calculate, few estimates of tax rates include it.
Read 7 tweets
15 Sep 21
The vax mandate solves a collective action problem:

Businesses want to vax their staff to provide a safe workplace. But they’re each worried that if they move first, they’ll lose staff to their rivals (who probably also want vaxxed staff). Mandating the vax solves this problem.
Point is in many industries all of the major players want fully vaccinated staff, but none wants to bear the political heat of announcing this first. Result: None of them require it even if all of ‘em want to.

The mandate solves the problem of waiting for a first mover to emerge
The vax mandate only applies to large employers, and so may be a competitive advantage for large companies, because customers know they’ll be safe there. Small businesses who do have vaccinated staff need a way to signal that they’re just as safe.
Read 6 tweets

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