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Lyn Alden Profile picture
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11 Jan, 4 tweets, 2 min read
December CPI comes out tomorrow and has a decent shot at reaching 7%+ year-over-year.

But then unless monthly inflation accelerates from here, the year-over-year figure will likely peak within Q1 2022.
House prices and apartment rents have topped in many markets for now. However, the components of CPI that measure these are on a multi-month lag, and so they haven't topped yet.
Used car prices likely haven't topped yet either, according to industry estimates. When they do top (as semiconductors get released, freeing up manufacturer inventory), this will be a disinflationary impulse. Just not yet.
publish.manheim.com/en/services/co…
Energy remains a key area of concern for sticky inflation over the longer-term, and that runs downstream into everything else (food, materials, transportation, manufacturing, etc).

The world remains rather tight on energy due to low investment.
lynalden.com/oil-and-gas/

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More from @LynAldenContact

Lyn Alden Profile picture
13 Jan
For a while now, China rather than the United States has had the world's largest GDP in terms of purchasing power parity, even though the US still has the highest nominal GDP. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c… Image
Some people think PPP is less accurate than nominal GDP, but for example, China has way more electricity consumption, 3x as many skyscrapers, more commodity imports, and more industrial capacity, than the US. Makes sense, given how big their population is. ImageImage
China also surpassed the US a long time ago as being the largest trading partner for majority of countries in the world. Image
Read 5 tweets
Lyn Alden Profile picture
3 Jan
Bitcoin is 13 years old today, the anniversary of the genesis block. It's an angsty teenager now, I suppose, which actually kind of fits.

The US dollar in its current fiat form is 50 years old, born in 1971.

Bitcoin is now more than 1/4th as old as the current US dollar. Image
Next year, Bitcoin will become half as old as "the Internet" as we know it. It seems to have some staying power, having lasted as long as it did thus far:
The foundations of the Internet were made in the 1970s and 1980s, the consumer browser was invented in the early 1990s, proof-of-work was invented in the 1990s, and SHA-2 encryption was published in 2001. Bitcoin itself was published in 2008 and released in 2009.
Read 5 tweets
Lyn Alden Profile picture
28 Dec 21
People with demanding jobs spend their time in a few key ways:

-Advance at work in the tactical sense.

-Research and have random conversations and insights that boost your tactical work more dramatically.

-Recharge your batteries, refill your spirit, amplify your passion, etc.
All three (and more) are necessary.

Long-term productive people seem to be aware of all three, encourage tactical achievements, but also allow for subjective and longer-term insights, while acknowledging passions and family time.
In other words, work is important, but it has various components (completing TPS reports vs finding new insights), and is recharged by passion (family, hobbies, nature, life, etc).

To dominate at work requires a passion that exists outside of work, for one reason or another.
Read 4 tweets
Lyn Alden Profile picture
28 Dec 21
Stablecoins will become increasingly regulated, only allowed to hold nominally risk-free assets, if they want to connect to regulated, legal institutions.

This includes cash and Treasuries. As such, stablecoins are a way to monetize Treasuries.
In other words, if stablecoins are backed in part by Treasuries, and the stablecoin market cap continues to grow, this is a new source of demand for US government debt.

Cash and Treasuries of various durations get mixed together in a basket, blurring the line between them.
USDC, GUSD, and USDP have already gone this route.

USDT is the one that holds other types of assets as well, which are not backed by the full faith and credit of the US government.

Entities that don't conform to regulations are basically eurodollars- offshore dollars.
Read 9 tweets
Lyn Alden Profile picture
27 Dec 21
This chart shows the change in broad money supply per capita compared to the change in beef prices over 5-year rolling periods:
Meanwhile, the past 25 years had a big disconnect between M2 and CPI:
The question, in an imperfect world with imperfect metrics, is M2 or CPI the better metric between the two?

CPI changes its basket of goods and hedonic offsets over the calculation period. Meanwhile, M2 is more consistent but struggles with an opaque financial situation.
Read 4 tweets
Lyn Alden Profile picture
9 Dec 21
Rent inflation is stabilizing for now after a big 2021 surge:
apartmentlist.com/research/natio…
Back in 2020 when a lot of folks were expecting ongoing disinflation, that was actually the bottom and a big inflationary surge was forming.

In late 2021 or early 2022 when a lot of folks are expecting permanent high inflation, that may be a local top for a period.
Inflation in the 1940s and 1970s was cyclical as well.

US job market, European energy, and global supply chains are still inflationary. US fiscal cliff is disinflationary.

Unclear what China will do for the lead up to their late-2022 national congress. Probably reflationary.
Read 4 tweets

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