Thread by @Mij_Europe

Blinded by the blizzard of French polls? Confused by the daily ups and downs? Here is a brief thread which tries to map the battlefield three months before the first round of the 🇫🇷 Presidential election on 10 April 1/

First, here is this week's first of a series of rolling polls by IFOP for Paris Match, LCI & Sud Radio – one of the most accurate guides last time around (2017) 2/

ifop.com/publication/re…

It puts @EmmanuelMacron in a strong position with 27% of first round vote, 9.5 points ahead of the pursuing “peloton” 3/

IFOP tests a wide field of 14 possible candidates – not all of which may reach the ballot paper. It has a second survey with 15 candidates, including Christiane Taubira, the would-be saviour of the Left. She gets only 3.5% but Macron comes down to 26% 4/

To put that snapshot in context, here is HuffPost’s animated graphic of support for 6 leading candidates since August (based on averaging 5 polls). In the “now” position (seen below) Macron is on 25.3%, ahead of MLP on 16.6% & Valérie Pécresse on 16.1% (similar to IFOP) 5/

If you run HuffPost's animation of changing polls, you will see Macron has been remarkably stable at 23-27%. The Left has flat-lined. All the action has been on Right & Far Right – decline & recovery of MLP; the boom & fall of Zemmour; & the rise & partial fall of Pécresse 6/

Link here:-

m.huffingtonpost.fr/entry/tous-les…

7/

Here is another “today” snapshot – Politico’s poll of polls, which was also a good guide last time. Updated constantly, it smoothes out variations between polling orgs. It has same front 3 as Ifop poll: Macron (25%), MLP (17%) & Pécresse (16%). It also averages 2nd round polls 8/

Finally, here is a somewhat different view from the newest French polling organisation, Cluster-17. It adopts a different method to other pollsters, giving more weight to people who are unsure whether or not they will vote 9/

marianne.net/politique/pres…

The main beneficiary in Cluster-17 poll is hard left Mélenchon on 12.5% of 1st round support, compared to 9-10% in other polls. Macron is down to 23%; Le Pen is 15%, Pécresse 14% & Zemmour on 13.5%. In other words, Cluster-17 sees a 5 not 4 horse race for 2 places in round 2 10/

Conclusions: Macron is remarkably stable and strong but the Cluster-17 poll is a reminder that his first round score is vulnerable to a resurgence of the Left. The Xenophobic (capital X) pundit, Eric Zemmour, after his surge in Sept, has faded badly and continues to fade 11/

Valérie Pécresse, the centre-right nominee, has failed to build on her post-nomination boom. Her score – around 16% - is close to what potential centre-right support has been for 12 months. MLP threatens to sneak ahead of her into 2nd round. But there are 3 months to go.. 12/

... So caution is advised. A new poll this AM shows Macron dipping to 23% & level with Pécresse in 2nd round. First signs of damage from #pissgate or just a bump in the road?? Shows why averaging polls is helpful. The next few will be very interesting END

bfmtv.com/politique/elec…