Thread by @Mij_Europe

As @trussliz & @chhcalling take over EU/NIP brief, 85 officials are moving from Cabinet Office to FCDO. Senior UK officials say this bc PM now keen to emphasise UK relationship w/EU no longer a "whole of Govt" affair. Now considered just a foreign/trading relationship, like US 1/

This is a big move - & includes senior UK officials that led on things like EU strategy & institutions. The "Brexit opportunities" team will, however, remain in Cab Office (considered a domestic issue). There's quite some mourning in this regard for @DavidGHFrost 2/

Despite his many critics, he's seen by many sensible people in Whitehall as a heavyweight who had a clear strategic vision & view of Brexit. Many officials I've spoken to think the elusive opportunities of Brexit will now prove even more elusive given Frost has left 3/

As UKG w/out him will be less likely to pursue a diff regulatory approach, reinforcing fears among Tory MPs @robertshrimsley addresses in his latest excellent column this week. All over EU, of course, Frost was seen as THE prob & they're glad he's left 4/

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On big picture, I remain of view @trussliz will be inclined to do a deal. She's already had many calls with EU capitals & Bxl. She's likely to meet @MarosSefcovic next week. But she won't be able to do a deal at any price. Will need to win something tangible from Bxl for ERG 5/

It is cliche, but as a Remainer Truss can’t on her first outing be seen to be "selling out to Bxl." (Some in UKG think Johnson has given her NIP brief precisely bc its "boring", doesn't lend itself to quick fixes & will test her w/Right while also lumping Sunak with tax rises) 6/

That has undermined PMs two most competitive rivals. (Perhaps too Machiavellian - esp on Sunak as HMT is much more worried than @10DowningStreet about legacy/Covid debt). It's now also clear Truss will delegate a lot of day-to-day management/heavy lifting on NIP to @chhcalling 7/

Officials think HH will have no ability to set agenda like Frost (probably not a bad thing), as he won't have a direct line to PM & will be reporting to @trussliz - result is they think he'll be pulled in lots of different & perhaps not particularly productive directions 8/

EU will also resist delegation of Joint Committee discussions to HH as @MarosSefcovic is @EU_Commission VP. Many tell me Truss will want the photo opp in Bxl, but with huge mandate -
global Britain, development, plus overseeing agencies - it's unclear she'll have the bandwidth 9/

Coveney suggested end-Feb deadline, but Truss/HH will need until end-Jan to get fully across detail. As any deal will need to address goods entering NI, reg standards in NI & governance/ECJ + Truss can't fold immediately, a quick deal seems unlikely
ENDS

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