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Mujtaba (Mij) Rahman Profile picture
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2 Jan, 4 tweets, 3 min read
A quick analysis of #flaggate #DrapeauEuropéen. @EmmanuelMacron has been  accused of “betrayal” and “provocation” by far right politicians for replacing the huge French tricolor flag under the Arc de Triomphe with the EU flag for the start of France's six month EU Presidency 1/
Interestingly, the centre-right Presidential candidate @vpecresse  - supposedly as Europhile as Macron - has joined in the far right chorus of protest. This is the most obvious example so far of magnetic pull of hard right, Eurosceptic wing of centre-right on Pécresse campaign 2/
Was this a deliberate trap set by Macron’s people? Maybe not. But Macron evidently intends to use the coincidence of the EU Presidency to make a distinction between the vague European credentials of Pécresse & his own ambitions & ideas for the EU 3/

When France last held EU Presidency, Sarkozy was President & Pécresse a minister in his Govt. He also placed EU flag under the Arc but alongside the French one. Le Pen has asked Govt watchdog, the Conseil d’Etat to rule whether a solo EU flag on a Fr state building is illegal 4/4

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Mujtaba (Mij) Rahman Profile picture
31 Dec 21
A brief thread on a few key questions that will likely define EU politics & issues in 2022 1/
Will Draghi transition from Italian PM to President? If he does, will it precipitate early elections & if so, will @GiorgiaMeloni of far-right Brothers lead the next Govt? What will be the implications for Italy's Recovery Plan - & relations with the EU? 2/
Could @vpecresse enter the Presidential election runoff against @EmmanuelMacron on 24 April? If so, will she beat him? If she did, Pécresse would then be the strongest centre-right leader in the EU: What would be the implications for the EU & Europe's centre-right? 3/
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Mujtaba (Mij) Rahman Profile picture
27 Dec 21
Emmanuel Macron is taking an each-way bet on Omicron not being too much of a health calamity just before the French election in April. No new lockdowns or curfews but restrictions on the size of large indoor and outdoor gatherings and mandatory home working three days a week 1/
After emergency cabinet & health defence councils today, PM Castex warned that number of cases in Fr could more than double to 250K a day in a week or so. All the same,  the Govt is rejecting – for now-  the kind of draconian new restrictions imposed by some of its neighbours 2/
Instead, the waiting period for third booster jabs will again be reduced from 4 months to 3. 3 days home working will be mandatory for office jobs. New, relaxed rules on isolation by contacts will be introduced to prevent the avalanche of new cases from closing country down 3/
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Mujtaba (Mij) Rahman Profile picture
20 Dec 21
Although she's a future leadership contender with a strong incentive to tack right on Europe & go in hard, after chats with both sides I think @trussliz assuming EU brief *could* actually be quite positive for UK-EU relations 1/
It's not obvious she'll be beholden to Right if PM is ditched next year. Of all credible runners & riders, only @pritipatel will adopt a more hardline EU stance. But her stock has fallen as Tories think she's failed on migration. @RishiSunak @Jeremy_Hunt would be pragmatic 2/
.@nadhimzahawi wd focus on vaccines; @sajidjavid on Covid. This isn't an exhaustive list, but it begs the question: who would the €sceptics vote for, if not Truss? If she's too extreme, she'll also alienate MPs she needs to get into runoff, who basically want Protocol sorted 3/
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Mujtaba (Mij) Rahman Profile picture
18 Dec 21
Quick thread on @DavidGHFrost resignation 1/

dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1…
Regardless of what Mail on Sun says, the fact is as political situation around @BorisJohnson disintegrates, the EU dropped down PMs list of priorities - now it's about survival, Covid, inflation/cost of living etc. EU/Protocol/ECJ/Art 16 are a very long way down list 2/
This left Frost exposed - as he was pursuing hardline approach in Bxl - the domestic ground shifted under his feet. Lack of progress on divergence agenda - & therefore tax - were also issues. Frost didn't think Global Britain could succeed unless UK broke out from EU's orbit 3/
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Mujtaba (Mij) Rahman Profile picture
16 Dec 21
Macron presented himself to Fr people last night as a safe pair of hands rather than the impatient white-collar revolutionary of 2017. In 2h TV i/view, he refused (just) to declare himself a candidate next Apr, but painted himself as a wiser & more cautious man than 5 yrs ago 1/
The interview on TF1 - Fr most watched TV channel - was clearly aimed at chunk of Fr electorate exhausted by Covid pandemic & does not want to see the country turned upside down again next year. He evidently regards the pandemic as a potential vote-winner, rather than a threat 2/
Apologising for remarks  which infuriated people early in his mandate – such as making a distinction between people who were “successful” and those who were “nothing” - Macron said that he had learned to govern with more “indulgence and kindness” 3/
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Mujtaba (Mij) Rahman Profile picture
15 Dec 21
What is the outlook for UK-EU relations in 2022? That has become a much more difficult question to answer of late, because it really hangs on one question - the fate of @BorisJohnson 1/
The outlook was clearer one month ago - the relationship would have hit a new low as UKG triggered Article 16 & EU partially terminated UK-EU trade deal. But then came along @OwenPaterson & new allegations of Tory sleaze - serving as a brake on hostilities with EU 2/
As one Tory MP told me at the time: “Article 16 has to be done from a position of strength but Boris is suddenly in a much weaker state. He could have done it at conference when he was riding high. The whole party would have rallied behind him. Now it would look desperate.” 3/
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