I broadly agree with this, though I'd add one additional twist on how to think about redistricting by seat: whether we're comparing to the actual outcome in 2020 or a hypothetical expected outcome on the old map in 2022
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1476246904673644555?s=20
Take VA, for instance.
Dave treats this as an R+1 shift, since Dems aren't favored to hold VA-2 (which is true).
But they probably would have won VA-2 in 2020 (this is still a Biden CD). So I'm not sure I'd call this a loss due to redistricting
Dave treats this as an R+1 shift, since Dems aren't favored to hold VA-2 (which is true).
But they probably would have won VA-2 in 2020 (this is still a Biden CD). So I'm not sure I'd call this a loss due to redistricting
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1476246912055627779?s=20
And on the other hand, Democrats might have been underdogs in both VA-2/7 on the old map in '22. By that forward looking measure, one could say the Democrats might be favored to gain a seat due to redistricting
In a lot of cases, the Democrats fare a little better on the seat count when you're really careful to make sure you're not adding in expectations of a 2022 rout into the cost of redistricting.
Given the extremely high relationship between presidential and congressional vote in '20, the easiest way to see that, to my mind, is to look at two measures: the number of Biden CDs and the number of CDs that are left of, say, Virginia (a hypothetical wave)
Across the 265 completed CDs, there are 5 more Biden CDs than before and there are also 4 more CDs where Dems would survive in a rout.
The GOP, OTOH, has really sured itself up against a Dem wave. There are 15 more CDs where Trump won by at least 15! In practice, that's less about playing defense against a wave and more about playing defense against highly unfavorable trends in formerly red, GOP-held suburbs
If, hypothetically, the Democrats make another big round of gains in the once red suburbs of Texas, IND, STL, etc., the value of GOP gerrymanders will soar. For now, it's the Democrats who might make slight gains
IE: if Texas turns blue, the GOP is still going to have a two-to-one seat edge and this gerrymander will look incredible. But it's entirely possible the Dems do better in '22 in TX than they would have on the old map
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