1/8 Texas C19 Update: Mid-Rise?

THREAD:

* Indications are that we are mid-way+ through the rise of this wave
* Positivity Rate growth is decreasing
* Crazy high Cases have topped out
* Hospital Admits are really starting a taper
* ICU and Vents still not keeping pace

1/n
1/8 Testing

Tests filed by date of specimen collection, < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 12/29,
* Pos rate 28.75% on its way to ~31%
* Positives at 42K/day on way to 50K. #Crazy
* Testing @ 148K/day on way to 160K
* Pos% rate will crest in the low 30s in coming days

2/n
.
1/8 - Cases

* Cases batched by date received by the county
* Topping out at 43K 7DMA & finally a decline, after 8 days of huge numbers
* 225% higher than previous C19 record & 500% higher than this point in 2020 Winter wave
* Will likely sit @ 40K range for a few days

3/n
.
1/6 Hospitalizations - Part 1

* % of beds tagged as Covid 15.82%, census at 9803
* Admits 7DMA inches up to 1585, but growth rate has really tapered. Down to 49% from 110% just 6 days ago
* Gen hospitalizations growth rate is following suit as per graph 4 below.

4/n
.
1/8 Hospitalizations - Part 2

* ICU still yet to catch 2020 Winter wave
* ICU portion of the bed census 1889
* Vent usage even further behind 2020 Winter than ICU
* Continues to be very low severity compared to past waves

5/n
.
1/8 Conclusion

* As we get further away from the holidays, test & case numbers will be more indicative of where we are in this wave
* But all indications point to mid-peak+: Upcoming rates of conversion of pos tests to cases, hosps already slowing down rate of growth, etc

6/end

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More from @therealarod1984

6 Jan
1/6 Texas C19 Update: Still going

THREAD:

* Maybe seeing a peak form for combined positivity rate
* Day 6 of huge case numbers, a record 7DMA by 2X
* General Hospitalizations increasing but growth rate has crested
* ICU & Vents behind Winter 2020 Wave pace

1/n
1/6 Testing

Tests filed by date of specimen collection, < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 12/27,
* Pos rate 23.91% on its way to ~31%
* Testing @ 130K/day on way to 155K
* Record positive tests
* Looking at more recent days, pos rate flattens @ 31%, will watch for a crest

2/n
. ImageImageImageImage
1/6 - Cases

* Cases batched by date received by the county
* Nearing 40K 7DMA, after 6th straight day of massive numbers
* More than twice the previous record set during Winter 2020
* After tomorrow, growth rate will plateau, but cases have gone wild

3/n
. ImageImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
3 Jan
1/3 Texas C19 Update: Everyone is getting it

THREAD:

* Shocking number of cases reported the past 3 days, shattering Covid case records
* Severe cases rising but nothing like cases
* Should be a steep but short wave
* Vaccine mandates LOL. Yeah OK.

1/n
1/3 Testing

Tests filed by date of specimen collection, < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 12/24, in a steep wave:
* Pos rate @ 18.94%, more growth to come
* Testing ~ 125K day
* Conversion of positives indicates still early in wave on 12/24, but that may change soon...

2/n
.
1/3 - Cases

* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* Records numbers of cases reported, starting to catch up from all the unreported positive tests
* Brand new records for daily reported and 7DMA. With 72% of the eligible pop and 77% of adults vaxxed

3/n
.
Read 6 tweets
31 Dec 21
12/30 Texas Regional C19 Hospitalization Analysis:

THREAD:

* Breakdown of the numbers into the different regions
* Far West & Panhandle basically are done with their wave
* Wave has moved East and South, and obviously into Texas Metro Triangle now, which will drive numbers

1/n
12/30 TX Regional Analysis: Far West and Panhandle

* El Paso appears completely over
* Midland some cyclical minor growth
* Amarillo & Lubbock are flat & whatever growth there is is cyclical
* For now, the wave has moved through this area and its over. Well watch though

2/n ImageImageImageImage
12/30 TX Regional Analysis: Texas Metro Triangle

* Austin and San Antonio have just started their rapid ascent.
* Dallas is also in the middle of rapid growth
* Houston has been driving the numbers, but the growth rate will soon taper. That's just how this works.

3/n ImageImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
30 Dec 21
12/30 Texas C19 Update:

THREAD:

* A steep wave in regards to testing, cases and general hospitalizations, all of it in the Eastern half of the state
* Severe cases are lagging significantly behind
* Behaving like a summer wave, not at all like last winter

1/n
12/30 Testing

Tests filed by date of specimen collection, < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 12/20, a steep wave forming:
* Pos rate @ 12.57%, more growth to come
* Testing nearing 110K day
* Conversion of positives to cases will help to indicate where we are in the wave

2/n
. ImageImageImageImage
12/30 - Cases

* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* Growth rate is tapering, some of that may be due to the holiday
* More cases now than at this point in 2020 wave, which was much more steady and flat. This wave behaving like a Summer one.

3/n
. ImageImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
22 Dec 21
12/21 - TX Hospitalizations by Region

THREAD:

* Analysis of 22 Texas TSA Hospital Regions grouped into 8 regional charts
* The Western part of the state has peaked for now. Will it stay that way? If so, not much of a wave
* Only new TX growth is in Houston

1/n
.
Panhandle and Far West Texas

* Start Date on all Charts is Jun 1
* Census for all four TSAs are in decline, as is change in 7DMA
* El Paso & Amarillo is in strong decline, which mirrors case rates in New Mexico
* Are these areas post peak or another wave coming We'll see

2/n
.
Texas Metro Triangle

* Only Houston showing strong recent growth. HOU can make a big impact to state numbers if it starts to offset the declines in 2/n
* The other three metros are really flat. The RoG charts show wave patterns that could indicate some growth is coming?

3/n
.
Read 4 tweets
21 Dec 21
12/21 Texas C19 Update: On the Case

THREAD:

* Testing showing signs of growth
* Cases finally climbing pretty fast as expected
* Case growth will taper soon but continue steadily
* Hospitalizations still flat as can be
* "Winter Wave 2021" right now is a casedemic

1/n
12/21 Testing

Tests filed by date of specimen collection, < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 12/11:
* Pos rate @ 7.57%
* Testing was still < 90K/day, but coming days will show growth, as will pos rate
* Conversion of positives to cases finally increasing, hence the cases

2/n
. ImageImageImageImage
12/21 - Cases

* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* Winter 2021 cases playing a ton of catch up with positive tests, growth will slow soon
* Vs Winter 2020, while its catching up to the 7DMA, obviously a ton more cases to start the 2020 Winter wave

3/n
. ImageImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets

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