EU gas: Right now & hear, #Gazprom uses gas export as political weapon. It books but does not use; bookings became useless indicator of what might flow in pipes. Latest: even NS flows reduce.

So far, EU compensated with warmer weather & LNG, as illustrated below.

1/4
Last month, Gazprom booked 21% of Mallnow’s (GER entry from PL) capacity for Jan, yet there have been no flows. In Dec, the company used daily pipe allocations for that route after opting against booking capacity for the whole month. Nor do Flows enter Poland (from BL).

2/4
On the Ukrainian route, some capacity was booked on Monday for gas shipments to Slovakia via Velke Kapusany border point for Feb. Yet, current flows through that station, even though an extra booking was also made for this month, are a fraction of contractual volumes. 

3/4
Where it gets disturbing is the recent noticeable drop for contractual flows to Germany via Nord Stream. They never dropped in Jan since the pipe’s capacity is in full use for past 5 years!

#payattention 4/4

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More from @BurggrabenH

Jan 13,
Macro shorts commodities on 1bps of inflation deceleration. Mind u though: demand is half the story nor the real story!

Years of underinvestment should make shorting oil, EU/A gas or metals risky business this time & in absence of a deep recession due to Fed mistake.

Thread
Nickel - the battery metal - first. If you short Nickel, you deserve to lose all your capital. Reason: ignorance!

Read 10 tweets
Jan 9,
The EU is in a gas crisis, the details of which we explained in various threads on this channel.

Ironically however, the liberalisation of the European gas markets is a huge success story. A brief history & some present day observations on gas security (#Gazprom).

Thread
1/n
With the liberalisation of EU gas & electricity markets in 1998, in theory consumers were able to freely choose their supplier & shop for the best deal. However, most households and businesses still lacked a real choice of supplier well into 2014. Why?

2/n
A Commission inquiry into the energy sector, published in February 2006, identified a number of "serious malfunctions" in the market as most countries maintained their local monopolies.

3/n
ec.europa.eu/competition/se…
Read 19 tweets
Jan 8,
Starting on 22 December, European gas prices experienced - shall we say - a bit of a "rug pull". Within 10 days they crashed by 60%. Is the gas crisis over?

Thread
1/n
TTF (EU equ. of US price Henry Hub) crashed from a record $59/MMBtu down to $23/MMBtu within 10 days. Today, the price is back at $29 (left axis; $168/boe) or >7x (!) the price US consumers pay for their heating bill.

So no, the crisis is hardly "over". It gets worse.

2/n
Why did TTF (or it's UK equ. NBP) come crashing down in late December? Chiefly b/c Europe had an unusually warm weather patch. Warm weather meant less gas withdrawals.

3/n
Read 13 tweets
Dec 16, 2021
Copper - the metal that conducts electricity & heat best - is high in demand & short in supply.

Yet, the macro concern is all about China's property slowdown.

Let's give a go at that. Short thread
First, what is copper used (not "consumed", but "used" in durable goods & recycled thereafter) for?
Answer: for everything. But "building construction" is 28% of global copper use. Likely 50% of that is China construction related (hard to precise), say 4.1mtpa.

2/..
Of those 4.1mtpa however, a part is infrastructure construction related, which China does not slow down for now. Say, "building construction" related is 2-3mtpa - an unknown known.

3/..
Read 17 tweets
Dec 8, 2021
As the news that Kuwait may struggle to keep its oil output in the coming years, we like to explain some facts on "Base Declines". Kuwait is said to have 3.2mbpd capacity & produces 2.5mbpd in Oct 2021.
Kuwait is major, not minor for the market.

Thread
First, think of a conventional oil fields like a "normal distribution" or, after its mathematician, a "Gauss curve". As a field starts producing hydrocarbons, its production is stable or increases (with reservoir pressure & wells No) bf it enters in a "permanent decline".

2/... Image
Take the Cantarell offshore field in Mexico, one of a few "giant" conventional oil fields ever to be discovered. Do you see the "Gauss" curve below? In May 2021, Cantarell was down to 90kbpd, a fraction of its 2mbpd peak production in 2004.

3/... Image
Read 12 tweets
Dec 8, 2021
In Europe, US$ 200/boe hydrocarbon prices arrived as the EU gas hub price TTF is going vertical.

Note: €102/MWh = US$33.8/MMBtu (or $33.8/Mcf) = US$ 203/boe (barrel of oil equivalent)

Why?

1/4 @OKalleklev @NachoTrust Image
Because the EU continues to withdraw gas at a record pace when compared to its 5-year averages due to colder than average weather.

2/... Image
At the same time, the EU has lower than average gas injections for the time of the season.

3/... Image
Read 4 tweets

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