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More from @Ayei_Eloheichem

Jan 20
Biden confirms this reporting and essentially greenlights any Russian operation against Ukraine short of a full invasion:

"It depends on what it does. It's one thing if it's a minor incursion and we end up having to fight about what to do or not do"
Biden says any Russian attempt to cut off energy supplies to Europe would be "biting your nose off to spite your face" given that it's 45% of their income.

Biden says Russian "banks will not be able to deal in dollars" if it invades, and that while it will win the war/occupy Ukraine, it will suffer terribly.

"Militarily, they have overwhelming superiority...but they'll pay a stiff price... near term, medium term, and long term"
Read 10 tweets
Jan 20
US reportedly approves the requests of #Estonia, #Latvia, and #Lithuania to rush their US weapons to #Ukraine as the likelihood of Russian invasion goes up to near certainty.

The Baltics have requested increased NATO presence, as well.…
This seems to have been done by the administration under pressure, as some of the requests are older than a week and the approval was only confirmed after POLITICO reported on them publicly.
The Biden administration has also reportedly FINALLY approved the arms package to Ukraine it's been holding up forever to appease Russia.

Read 4 tweets
Jan 20
Very much this. I think there's also a vast overestimation of the difficulty Russia would face in occupying all or most of the country.
Russia will steamroller Ukraine. If it wants, it could take Kyiv within less than a week. It won't be a proper war.

It'll look like 2003.
Read 5 tweets
Jan 20
#UAE ambassador to US Yousef Al-Otaiba: “Several attacks — a combination of cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and drones — targeted civilian sites...Several were intercepted”

Looks like the #Houthis weren't lying about ballistic missiles being used.…
The odds are high that this attack was once again directly from Iran, like the 2019 ARAMCO strikes.

Saudi Arabia refused to blame Iran for those, and the UAE will cover for Iran now, like it always does.
Read 6 tweets
Jan 19
#Ukraine Defense Ministry's latest intelligence assessment seen by CNN says Russia has "almost completed" its deployment:

127,000 troops deployed (sea, air, land components)+>35K proxy forces+3000 Russians already in Donbas.…
#Ukraine Defense Ministry's latest intelligence assessment:

Since January, Russia moving "stockpiles of ammunition, field hospitals and security services" to border, increasing intelligence operations, and increasing Iskanders on border to 36 launchers.
#Ukraine Defense Ministry's latest intelligence assessment: "The territory of #Belarus should be considered as a full-fledged theater of operations that #Russia can use to expand aggression against Ukraine"
Read 7 tweets

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