Biden confirms this reporting and essentially greenlights any Russian operation against Ukraine short of a full invasion:

"It depends on what it does. It's one thing if it's a minor incursion and we end up having to fight about what to do or not do"
Biden says any Russian attempt to cut off energy supplies to Europe would be "biting your nose off to spite your face" given that it's 45% of their income.

Biden says Russian "banks will not be able to deal in dollars" if it invades, and that while it will win the war/occupy Ukraine, it will suffer terribly.

"Militarily, they have overwhelming superiority...but they'll pay a stiff price... near term, medium term, and long term"
Finland and the US are both being pretty clear that the former will not be joining NATO. I assume the public statement of this is another bone to Russia. Why not let them sweat?
Biden says Putin laments his loss of Empire and is trying to find his place between China and the West, and that despite Russia technically having everything going for it and the US being willing to give Russia what it says it wants, Putin is going to invade, anyway..
Biden rules out near-term [meaning indefinitely] Ukrainian membership of NATO [as the US and Europe have for decades]:

"There's room to work if he wants to do that, but I think as usual he's going to...I probably shouldn't go any further."
While implicitly confirming that Ukraine is barred from NATO, Biden rejects all other demands and says the US will increase its presence across the entire Russian border if it invades.

Asked to clarify whether he's greenlighting Russian operations short of invasion, Biden doubles down and says yes, because "transatlantic unity" uber alles and there's no agreement in NATO to punish Russia for anything short of invasion [and even that].

Biden backtracks and says he thinks Putin hasn't made up his mind on precisely what he wants to do yet in Ukraine.

He also says the senior Russian officials the US has been engaging with in different fora don't seem to know any better than the US does.
Biden says he wants a summit with Putin and that a full invasion of Ukraine would be "the most consequential thing that's happened...since World War II".

Biden also confirms he is concerned that an invasion could spiral and spark a war with NATO.

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More from @Ayei_Eloheichem

Jan 20
US reportedly approves the requests of #Estonia, #Latvia, and #Lithuania to rush their US weapons to #Ukraine as the likelihood of Russian invasion goes up to near certainty.

The Baltics have requested increased NATO presence, as well. politico.com/news/2022/01/1…
This seems to have been done by the administration under pressure, as some of the requests are older than a week and the approval was only confirmed after POLITICO reported on them publicly.
The Biden administration has also reportedly FINALLY approved the arms package to Ukraine it's been holding up forever to appease Russia.

Read 4 tweets
Jan 20
Very much this. I think there's also a vast overestimation of the difficulty Russia would face in occupying all or most of the country.
Russia will steamroller Ukraine. If it wants, it could take Kyiv within less than a week. It won't be a proper war.

It'll look like 2003.
Read 5 tweets
Jan 20
#UAE ambassador to US Yousef Al-Otaiba: “Several attacks — a combination of cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and drones — targeted civilian sites...Several were intercepted”

Looks like the #Houthis weren't lying about ballistic missiles being used. apnews.com/article/houthi…
The odds are high that this attack was once again directly from Iran, like the 2019 ARAMCO strikes.

Saudi Arabia refused to blame Iran for those, and the UAE will cover for Iran now, like it always does.
Read 6 tweets
Jan 19
#Ukraine Defense Ministry's latest intelligence assessment seen by CNN says Russia has "almost completed" its deployment:

127,000 troops deployed (sea, air, land components)+>35K proxy forces+3000 Russians already in Donbas. cnn.com/2022/01/18/eur…
#Ukraine Defense Ministry's latest intelligence assessment:

Since January, Russia moving "stockpiles of ammunition, field hospitals and security services" to border, increasing intelligence operations, and increasing Iskanders on border to 36 launchers.
#Ukraine Defense Ministry's latest intelligence assessment: "The territory of #Belarus should be considered as a full-fledged theater of operations that #Russia can use to expand aggression against Ukraine"
Read 7 tweets

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