Thread by @Usherwood

Quick thoughts on possible impact of a new Tory leader on Brexit policy

tl;dr probably minimal, but some risks still exist

1/

Just as any post-Johnson leader will not want to be defined by Covid, so they are even less likely to return to Brexit as a hot topic: it's of the past, doesn't switch on many voters and risks inflaming backbench

2/

So you'd imagine that route one would be quiet diplomacy, not too dissimilar from current position: speak firmly, but don't upset the apple cart (or trigger Art.16) and hope it settles down

3/

However, precisely because it's less central as an issue and because most obvious contenders weren't forged in the fires of #EURef, there's a risk someone starts a bidding war in a leadership contest about who can talk/act toughest, to sharpen up their credentials

4/

Think Cameron and EPP membership in 2005 and how that played out: low salience for him, but emboldening for eurosceptics

5/

So non-negligible chance that UK stumbles into a new round of aggro with EU, just because of internal party dynamics

Which would be in keeping

6/

Of course, also possible that a new leader might come with a more considered view, but that's really unlikely right now, given who's on manoeuvres and the state of the party

7/

In sum: more of the same, whatever happens

/end