Thread by @DrSimEvans

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My latest analysis on the UK's billion-pound bill for Cameron deciding in 2013 to "get rid of the green crap"

Result?

Energy bills are now £2.5bn higher than they would have been, if climate policies had not been scrapped

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carbonbrief.org/analysis-cutti…

Many will remember infamous 2013 Sun frontpage, which reported then-PM David Cameron's "solution to soaring energy prices" as "get rid of the green crap"

Since bills are once again making the headlines, we thought we'd check what has happened…

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carbonbrief.org/analysis-cutti…

The results of "getting rid of the green crap" were immediate and long-lasting:

📉loft insulation rates fell 92%
🧱cavity walls down 74%
🏘️1m new inefficient homes
🌪️onshore wind growth stalled

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carbonbrief.org/analysis-cutti…

Add up the impact of "getting rid of the green crap" since 2013 and, given high and rising energy prices, you get a big fat £2.5bn bill

Ooops!

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The £2.5bn bill for "cutting the green crap" is spread across all electricity users (homes only 1/3 of demand)

But I estimate the impact on household bills is around £40, rising to £60 next winter

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carbonbrief.org/analysis-cutti…

So what is REALLY driving up energy bills?

Let's check in with gas prices, shall we?

Can you spot the problem?

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carbonbrief.org/analysis-cutti…

(Many thanks to @tmarzecmanser @ChetJPatel for sharing @ICISOfficial wholesale price data)

The overwhelming driver of rising UK energy bills – nearly 90% of the increase – is the tripling in wholesale gas & electricity prices

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carbonbrief.org/analysis-cutti…

(Thanks to Martin Young at @Investec for sharing forecast increases in the price cap)

Looking a bit closer at those rising bills, we can see that not only are high gas prices overwhelmingly behind the increase, but oft-blamed climate policy costs are actually *falling*

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carbonbrief.org/analysis-cutti…

Falling climate policy costs are due to the design of CfDs, now the UK's preferred support for low-carbon electricity schemes

When gas prices are v high, as now, our portfolio of CfD schemes *pay back money to consumers*, hedging costs on bills

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carbonbrief.org/analysis-cutti…

As noted by SSE boss Alistair Phillips-Davies in a recent Daily Mail column, we can look forward to more protection from high gas prices once the current tranche of massive under-construction offshore windfarms get completed

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carbonbrief.org/analysis-cutti…