Powell might not be chairman in 2 weeks, and it will not matter.
Sherrod Brown (D, OH), the head of the Senate finance committee, said the committee will most likely vote on the Powell/Brainard nominations in early Feb.
No date on the full Senate floor confirmation vote.
2/3
Powell's term as Fed Chairman ends January 31. His term as a "regular" Fed governor expires in 2028.
(The Fed chairman is also a "regular" Fed Governor, think of them as two separate things)
3/3
Brown told the press yesterday it doesn't matter that Powell technically expires as Chairman on the 31st.
All parties will probably agree to treat him as the Fed Chairman, and everything continues as is.
Regarding my last comment about "making things up" ... Thanks to @mckonomy for setting me straight...
The law says Fed officials can continue on the job until their successor is sworn in. So, Powell would remain Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board until a successor is in place
But since Powell is the successor, it doesn't make much of a difference.
As for the FOMC, the committee elects its chairman for the year each in January.
By tradition it's always the chairman of the Board of Governors, but it doesn't have to be.
The FOMC chair doesn't even have to work at the Fed.
In theory, Jim Bianco could be named chairman of the FOMC.
So even if he's not officially confirmed as chairman of the board, Powell will be reelected as chair of the FOMC on Jan 26.
Given this ...
I look forward to my appointment next week!
In my acceptance speech I will quote Groucho Marx ...
"I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member."
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What do markets look like when they are freaking out?
Answer, like they look this week.
Why? The realization/fear that the Fed is going to slam on the brakes ... hard. And the panic that the stock market is going to get thrown through the windshield.
A 🧵to explain
2/10
Let's start with Tuesday (Jan 18). The SPX was down 1.8% the same day the 10-year yield was up 9 basis point.
This has only happened seven times since 2000
3/10
And today
The S&P was up 1.53% at today's high. It closed down more than 1%.
Only 8 times since the Global Financial Crisis in 2009 has the S&P 500 been up more than 1.5% intraday and then finished down more than 1%. And 4 of the 8 were in March 2020 (bolded)
In some respects, what happened in bond markets last week was epic, something we might be talking about for many years.
A thread to explain
2/14
When discussing bond market moves, I believe the best metric is total return. It encompasses both price change and the level of yields (accrued interest).
The next set of charts show calendar week total returns. That is, the week ending Friday (Thursday if a holiday).
3/14
The 30-year data goes back to 1973 and last week was the worst calendar week total return in at least 49-year history! The long-bond lost 9.35%!!
If this was a year, a 9.35% total return loss would be the 5-year worst year ever.
Narrative is US cases will peak any day following South Africa pattern.
Keep in mind:
* South Africa is only 30% vaxxed (US 63%)
* It's young with few restrictions
* So, everyone "breathed on each other" cases went up 100x in 30 days and then peaked.
The orange line is the probability of a March hike. It has been above 50% since December 21, over 2 weeks now.
The blue line is a June rate hike. That has been priced in since late-Oct.
The Fed minutes should not have been a surprised, it's been priced in for some time.
3/8
For a while I've talked about the disconnect between what the market has priced in and what the consensus says will happen. It is rare the market pricing is NOT the consensus view.