Marc Bevand Profile picture
Jan 24 5 tweets 2 min read
Heads of government who have died of COVID-19

Confirmed:
1. Prime Minister of Eswatini, Ambrose Mandvulo Dlamini

Suspected:
2. President of Burundi, Pierre Nkurunziza
3. President of Tanzania, John Magufuli
4. Prime Minister of Ivory Coast, Hamed Bakayoko
1. Prime Minister of Eswatini tested positive on 15 Nov 2020, was hospitalized 8 days later, and died on 13 Dec.

bnonews.com/index.php/2020…
2. President of Burundi died on 8 June 2020. The cause of death was given officially as "cardiac arrest" by the Burundian government, but is suspected to be COVID: economist.com/middle-east-an…

His wife was flown to Kenya and hospitalized for COVID a week before his death.
3. President of Tanzania's death was announced on 17 March 2021. He embraced COVID denialism, and spread misinformation. In 2020 he ordered COVID testing to stop, and later announced "The corona disease has been eliminated thanks to God"

npr.org/2021/03/17/978…
4. Prime Minister of Ivory Coast died on 10 March 2021, from "cancer" according to the government. He was infected by COVID twice and also by malaria.

theafricareport.com/72174/cote-div…

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More from @zorinaq

Nov 18, 2021
10 years ago @apenwarr wrote "Why bitcoin will fail"

BItcoin is up 15,000x since then, so he published a blog update admitting it may take "more than 50 years" to fail

Me too I can predict anything will fail within X years, if X is large enough 😀
apenwarr.ca/log/20211117
More seriously, he makes really illogical poorly-explained arguments.

1. "Bitcoin doesn't work because of Scams"

There are tons of scams on this thing called "Internet." Does it mean Internet doesn't work?
2. "Bitcoin doesn't work because Citizens use it to move money out of authoritarian regimes"

Well, that's by design. Bitcoin is meant to be censorship-resistant. That's working as expected 🤦‍♂️
Read 7 tweets
Oct 29, 2021
I am excited to report a discovery:

I found a 521-km sightline from Pik Koroleva. This makes it the 2nd longest sightline on the planet:

Start point 41.080000,77.769167 (Pik Koroleva, elevation 5800 m)
Bearing 188.914568°
End point 36.449604,76.867903 (elevation 6416 m)

1/n Image
This 521-km sightline was found using a custom multithreaded program that is currently crunching through 2.4 million viewpoints. It will complete the full analysis in about 90 days

Above rendering is from panorama generator udeuschle.de/panoramas/panq…

2/n
This finding supersedes my previous finding of a 510-km sightline:

3/n
Read 4 tweets
Sep 17, 2021
Let's pick apart this preprint and see if Peter's claim holds.

I spent less than 1 minute scanning it, and I'm pretty sure it is flawed, but I'm going to review it live on Twitter
Peter highlights "For boys 16-17 without medical comorbidities, the rate of CAE is currently 2.1 to 3.5 times higher than their 120-day COVID-19 hospitalization risk"

CAE = cardiac adverse event
First, the claim is very specific:
- not all kids, just boys
- not all boys, just 16-17
- not 16-17 boys, just those with zero medical comorbidities

So, from the get go, this implies all other kids could probably still be vaccinated and this being less risky than COVID-19 itself
Read 14 tweets
Jun 20, 2021
I updated my chart comparing the fatality of covid vs flu

(data & source code: github.com/mbevand/covid1…)

Notice the new curve "Brazeau" which is 1 of the most comprehensive & recent analysis suggesting covid is more fatal than the flu even at ages as young as 5 years old Image
All the official sources behind this chart are referenced in the README file:
github.com/mbevand/covid1… Image
The US CDC did update their estimate of the covid IFR on 19 March 2021 (they increased it quite significantly). I missed that update.

Here is the chart with that latest update: Image
Read 4 tweets
Feb 17, 2021
A good track record is everything. If you don't have a good one, you are a bad analyst.

With that in mind, let's examine some of @MLevitt_NP2013's analyses and predictions

1/n
Michael claimed Italy would end at 17k-20k deaths ()

Observed: 94k & and counting

Wrong by 5-fold

2/n
Michael claimed Switzerland would have approximately 500 deaths ()

Observed: 9k deaths & counting

Wrong by 18-fold

3/n
Read 9 tweets
Jan 25, 2021
Sweden mortality over the last 120 years.

This week's update from SCB takes Sweden to 𝟵𝟴,𝟬𝟴𝟭 deaths recorded in year 2020. The country's seeing the worst excess mortality since the 1918 pandemic flu.

1/n
Source: scb.se/en/finding-sta…

Above link is found under "Preliminary statistics on deaths" at scb.se/en/finding-sta…

2/n
Covid denialist: "but it's not population-adjusted"

Yes it is. Panels (A) and (B) are population-adjusted.

3/n
Read 4 tweets

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