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Beͫvͣaͬnͨd Profile picture
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25 Jan, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Sweden mortality over the last 120 years.

This week's update from SCB takes Sweden to 𝟵𝟴,𝟬𝟴𝟭 deaths recorded in year 2020. The country's seeing the worst excess mortality since the 1918 pandemic flu.

1/n
Source: scb.se/en/finding-sta…

Above link is found under "Preliminary statistics on deaths" at scb.se/en/finding-sta…

2/n
Covid denialist: "but it's not population-adjusted"

Yes it is. Panels (A) and (B) are population-adjusted.

3/n
Covid denialist: "the trend of expected deaths is wrong / excess deaths are miscomputed"

Wrong. My expected deaths figure (~7000) is confirmed by the SCB, the government agency in charge of estimating official excess deaths: dn.se/sverige/sverig…

4/n

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More from @zorinaq

Beͫvͣaͬnͨd Profile picture
19 Jan
Sweden mortality from 1900 to 2020.

This week's data update from SCB puts Sweden past a sad milestone: year 2020 recorded both the most excess *deaths* as well as the highest excess *mortality* (population adjusted) since the 1918 flu pandemic.

Let this sink in.

1/n
Source: scb.se/en/finding-sta…

This is the link found under "Preliminary statistics on deaths" at scb.se/en/finding-sta…

2/n
My estimate of ~7200 excess deaths is roughly confirmed by SCB who, as of a few weeks ago, estimated approximately 7000: dn.se/sverige/sverig… .

3/n
Read 4 tweets
Beͫvͣaͬnͨd Profile picture
11 Jan
Latest official Swedish population stats: 𝟵𝟳,𝟭𝟲𝟰 preliminary deaths recorded in 2020

As per my analysis year 2020 has:
➡️highest excess mortality since 1931 (population-adjusted)
➡️most excess deaths since 1918 flu pandemic
➡️highest absolute mortality since 2013

#sweden
Source: scb.se/en/finding-sta…

Which is the link found under "Preliminary statistics on deaths (published 2021-01-11)" at scb.se/en/finding-sta… .
Final figures for 2020 will be known around February 2021 and will probably stabilize around high 97,000s or low 98,000s total deaths.
Read 4 tweets
Beͫvͣaͬnͨd Profile picture
22 Dec 20
Here's my weekly update from SCB on mortality in Sweden.

Year 2020 has:
(1) the highest excess mortality since 1937 (pop. adjusted)
(2) the most excess deaths since 1919 (not pop. adjusted)
(3) annulled 7 years of all-cause mortality decline (highest ACM since 2013)

1/n
For their part, the Swedish government estimates 4859 as of 30 Nov:

2/n
The line representing average expected mortality on my chart is a LOWESS regression

Normally demographers use more sophisticated statistical algorithms (eg. Farrington) to do so. LOWESS is a sloppy technique, but it works well enough for rough estimates

3/n
Read 4 tweets
Beͫvͣaͬnͨd Profile picture
30 Nov 20
The timing of when self-sustained transmission starts is crucial:

A and B are 2 identical countries implementing the same lockdown policy at the same time

If self-sustained transmission starts 𝟱 𝗱𝗮𝘆𝘀 𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗿 in A, then A will have 𝘁𝘄𝗶𝗰𝗲 the number of deaths
This is just math, based on various estimates that the epidemic doubling time of COVID was less than 5 days before lockdowns in spring 2020
academic.oup.com/jid/article/22…
In fact, because of this short doubling time, the timing between self-sustained transmission and lockdown is one of the most important factors that determines cumulative deaths per capita

This explains NYC and the Nordic countries. See next tweet.
Read 4 tweets
Beͫvͣaͬnͨd Profile picture
29 Nov 20
A thread to refute the nonsense spewed by #covid deniers/minimizers...
#1 "It's just the flu"

No, vast majority of studies disagree:
#2 "Really, it's just the flu"

Really, no:
Read 19 tweets
Beͫvͣaͬnͨd Profile picture
27 Nov 20
This chart shows Sweden's mortality rate & excess deaths since 1900

While COVID-19 *seems* to be a small bump in mortality, 2020 has the most excess deaths of any year since the 1918 influenza pandemic

These ~4700 excess deaths are supported by SCB:

1/n
The line representing average expected mortality on the chart is a LOWESS regression

Normally demographers use more sophisticated statistical algorithm (eg. Farrington) to do so. LOWESS is kind of a sloppy technique, but it works well enough

2/n
For more accurate results, I didn't include 2020 data in the LOWESS regression. Instead I cut off the smoothing at 2019, and assume that without COVID-19 the expected mortality would have continued its generally improving trend of the last decades through 2020

3/n
Read 12 tweets

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