I am excited to report a discovery:

I found a 521-km sightline from Pik Koroleva. This makes it the 2nd longest sightline on the planet:

Start point 41.080000,77.769167 (Pik Koroleva, elevation 5800 m)
Bearing 188.914568°
End point 36.449604,76.867903 (elevation 6416 m)

1/n Image
This 521-km sightline was found using a custom multithreaded program that is currently crunching through 2.4 million viewpoints. It will complete the full analysis in about 90 days

Above rendering is from panorama generator udeuschle.de/panoramas/panq…

2/n
This finding supersedes my previous finding of a 510-km sightline:

3/n
Currently the longest known sightline is 538 km from Pik Dankova & was discovered manually in 2008

My ultimate goal is to find if a longer one exists by doing an exhaustive search of the surface of the planet. And we have 90 days of compute time to wait to have an answer😎

4/n

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More from @zorinaq

17 Sep
Let's pick apart this preprint and see if Peter's claim holds.

I spent less than 1 minute scanning it, and I'm pretty sure it is flawed, but I'm going to review it live on Twitter
Peter highlights "For boys 16-17 without medical comorbidities, the rate of CAE is currently 2.1 to 3.5 times higher than their 120-day COVID-19 hospitalization risk"

CAE = cardiac adverse event
First, the claim is very specific:
- not all kids, just boys
- not all boys, just 16-17
- not 16-17 boys, just those with zero medical comorbidities

So, from the get go, this implies all other kids could probably still be vaccinated and this being less risky than COVID-19 itself
Read 14 tweets
20 Jun
I updated my chart comparing the fatality of covid vs flu

(data & source code: github.com/mbevand/covid1…)

Notice the new curve "Brazeau" which is 1 of the most comprehensive & recent analysis suggesting covid is more fatal than the flu even at ages as young as 5 years old Image
All the official sources behind this chart are referenced in the README file:
github.com/mbevand/covid1… Image
The US CDC did update their estimate of the covid IFR on 19 March 2021 (they increased it quite significantly). I missed that update.

Here is the chart with that latest update: Image
Read 4 tweets
17 Feb
A good track record is everything. If you don't have a good one, you are a bad analyst.

With that in mind, let's examine some of @MLevitt_NP2013's analyses and predictions

1/n
Michael claimed Italy would end at 17k-20k deaths ()

Observed: 94k & and counting

Wrong by 5-fold

2/n
Michael claimed Switzerland would have approximately 500 deaths ()

Observed: 9k deaths & counting

Wrong by 18-fold

3/n
Read 9 tweets
25 Jan
Sweden mortality over the last 120 years.

This week's update from SCB takes Sweden to 𝟵𝟴,𝟬𝟴𝟭 deaths recorded in year 2020. The country's seeing the worst excess mortality since the 1918 pandemic flu.

1/n
Source: scb.se/en/finding-sta…

Above link is found under "Preliminary statistics on deaths" at scb.se/en/finding-sta…

2/n
Covid denialist: "but it's not population-adjusted"

Yes it is. Panels (A) and (B) are population-adjusted.

3/n
Read 4 tweets
19 Jan
Sweden mortality from 1900 to 2020.

This week's data update from SCB puts Sweden past a sad milestone: year 2020 recorded both the most excess *deaths* as well as the highest excess *mortality* (population adjusted) since the 1918 flu pandemic.

Let this sink in.

1/n
Source: scb.se/en/finding-sta…

This is the link found under "Preliminary statistics on deaths" at scb.se/en/finding-sta…

2/n
My estimate of ~7200 excess deaths is roughly confirmed by SCB who, as of a few weeks ago, estimated approximately 7000: dn.se/sverige/sverig… .

3/n
Read 4 tweets
11 Jan
Latest official Swedish population stats: 𝟵𝟳,𝟭𝟲𝟰 preliminary deaths recorded in 2020

As per my analysis year 2020 has:
➡️highest excess mortality since 1931 (population-adjusted)
➡️most excess deaths since 1918 flu pandemic
➡️highest absolute mortality since 2013

#sweden
Source: scb.se/en/finding-sta…

Which is the link found under "Preliminary statistics on deaths (published 2021-01-11)" at scb.se/en/finding-sta… .
Final figures for 2020 will be known around February 2021 and will probably stabilize around high 97,000s or low 98,000s total deaths.
Read 4 tweets

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