A good track record is everything. If you don't have a good one, you are a bad analyst.
With that in mind, let's examine some of @MLevitt_NP2013's analyses and predictions
1/n
With that in mind, let's examine some of @MLevitt_NP2013's analyses and predictions
1/n
Michael claimed Italy would end at 17k-20k deaths (
Observed: 94k & and counting
Wrong by 5-fold
2/n
https://twitter.com/MLevitt_NP2013/status/1243905625714831363)
Observed: 94k & and counting
Wrong by 5-fold
2/n
Michael claimed Switzerland would have approximately 500 deaths (
Observed: 9k deaths & counting
Wrong by 18-fold
3/n
https://twitter.com/MLevitt_NP2013/status/1243929765876301825)
Observed: 9k deaths & counting
Wrong by 18-fold
3/n
Michael predicted Israel will have "no more than 10 covid deaths" (jpost.com/israel-news/no…)
Observed: 5k deaths & counting
Wrong by 500-fold
4/n
Observed: 5k deaths & counting
Wrong by 500-fold
4/n
Michael later tried to reframe his Israel prediction by saying he meant "actual" not "reported" deaths—as if reported deaths were unreliable stats.
He pointed out the lack of excess deaths indicates few or no "actual" deaths:
But he was wrong again.
5/n
He pointed out the lack of excess deaths indicates few or no "actual" deaths:
https://twitter.com/MLevitt_NP2013/status/1293827585395380224
But he was wrong again.
5/n
He claimed, again, no excess deaths in Israel as of Jan 2021:
But weeks later he contradicts himself & showed 1408 excess deaths:
So by his own admission he's wrong by 140-fold compared to the "10 deaths" he predicted
6/n
https://twitter.com/MLevitt_NP2013/status/1346841473606565889
But weeks later he contradicts himself & showed 1408 excess deaths:
https://twitter.com/MLevitt_NP2013/status/1361337183181938696
So by his own admission he's wrong by 140-fold compared to the "10 deaths" he predicted
6/n
By the way his calculation of Israel excess deaths is incorrect. A more reliable analysis by @TheEconomist puts it at 3k, not 1.4k: economist.com/graphic-detail…
So Michael was wrong by 300-fold on Israel deaths
7/n
So Michael was wrong by 300-fold on Israel deaths
7/n
Next we have this now-famous prediction that the US would be done with COVID after 170k deaths:
Observed: 500k deaths & counting
Wrong by 3-fold or 330k deaths
I don't think he ever acknowledged the magnitude of his error here...
8/n
https://twitter.com/MLevitt_NP2013/status/1287036738565738496
Observed: 500k deaths & counting
Wrong by 3-fold or 330k deaths
I don't think he ever acknowledged the magnitude of his error here...
8/n
After this US prediction failure, he immediately (weeks later) predicted between 170k and 270k excess deaths in the US in 2020 (
Observed: about 400k
9/n
https://twitter.com/MLevitt_NP2013/status/1310919675086241792) But he was wrong again.
Observed: about 400k
9/n
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