Thread by @resfoundation

The UK’s trade agreement with India could deliver economic benefits eventually comparable in scale to the now defunct US trade deal - but it also carries far more uncertainty and risk - 🧵THREAD 🧵 here - and full report on our website: economy2030.resolutionfoundation.org/reports/a-pres…

A UK-India FTA could be a big deal: UK business services exports under-perform in India relative to other Indo-Pacific regions – accounting for just 1.8% of imports to India, compared to 4.2% in Malaysia – so the potential for future growth is huge.

A UK-India deal could also be a bigger, but riskier, deal than a US FTA. India is forecast to become the world’s third largest import market by 2050. Demand for business, telecommunications and computer services, where UK export firms perform well, is expected to treble in 2020s.

But while the benefits of trade liberalisation with India are clear, UK firms will also be exposed to far more competition from Indian exporters. 8 sectors have emerged as new comparative advantages for India in the past decade, compared to just 1 for the US.

A successful trade relationship with India rests on the idea that the UK can, in services, emulate the German goods success in exporting high-value manufacturing to China, while ensuring business services firms in the UK are not undercut by Indian imports with lower labour costs.

Ultimately, any trade deal means accepting uncertainty about the competition that will face UK firms, as the price for access to a fast-expanding market.

Read more in today's #Economy2030 report from
@resfoundation & @CEP_LSE, funded by @NuffieldFound - A presage to India: Assessing the UK’s new Indo-Pacific trade focus: economy2030.resolutionfoundation.org/reports/a-pres…