Thread by @ZarinaZabrisky

#UkraineConflict The world is anticipating further Russian aggression against Ukraine. My summary (a podcast with @gregolear forthcoming), after talking to experts and friends in Ukraine. What's going on? 👇 #Ukraine #ukrainerussia #RussiaUkraine #Russia #RussiaInvadedUkraine

Russia has amassed between 100-200K troops on Ukraine's borders and in Belarus, moving troops from the Far East and Siberia and made a written ultimatum to the US: NATO should not accept any former Soviet republics, including Ukraine that is currently seeking admission...

...to the alliance and must roll back its troops from the countries that have borders with Russia, such as Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania.) Today, the US has delivered a written response to this draft proposal.

It didn't start now. In 2014, Russia annexed the Ukrainian region of Crimea and via state-funded mass media and social media carried out a disinformation campaign disseminating a false narrative about the civil war and ethnic divide in Ukraine.

Since then, more than 14,000 already have died in the war in eastern Ukraine, orchestrated by Russia. Russia uses proxies and denies military presence in the region. Important note: the "Russia-backed separatists" term is incorrect.

What's happening in the region this week? Ukrainian president Zelensky and his administration attempted to calm the Ukrainian people. In several public addresses, they noted that the hybrid war and manipulations are the main weapon of the Kremlin and panic would be detrimental.

Ukrainian troops are on high alert and training to use the lethal weapons provided by the allies, including the NLAW anti-tank missile systems delivered by the UK.

This week, Ukraine's state security service, SBU, claimed to have undercover a "criminal group" that was preparing a series of attacks near the border. "A large-scale operation ... The criminals were coordinated by representatives of Russia's special services."

Russia launched new military exercises near Ukraine and annexed Crimea, but Moscow has repeatedly denied plans to invade. Putin's spokesman blamed the West for "escalating tensions by deploying more forces & publishing 'fake' claims of two Russian regime change plots in Ukraine."

He also claimed that Ukraine is preparing an attack in Donbas & that the risk of conflict is "very high". The Kremlin accused the United States of ratcheting up tensions by putting several thousand of its own troops on alert. This tactic of disinformation is called "gaslighting."

In Belarus, Lukashenko said he would deploy "an entire contingent" of his army at the Ukrainian border in response to NATO force deployments in Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia and troop build-ups in Ukraine "to defend Southern border."

Russia and Belarus are currently carrying out military training while releasing disinformation, stating that these were planned beforehand and blaming Ukraine for concentrating troops at the Belarusian border. (Gaslighting, again.)

How does the world react to this situation? All major NATO countries and allies are committing to support Ukraine. It is important to note that NATO's constitution is purely defensive.

France is ready to send troops to Romania. President Macron offered to host peace talks for Putin and Zelensky this week. Spain has sent a frigate from its Atlantic coast to the Black Sea several weeks ahead of schedule. Denmark is also to send a frigate to the Baltic Sea.

Three neighboring Baltic states, former republics of the USA: Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia made a joint statement in support of Ukraine. Lithuania and Latvia are sending Stingers for airborne attack aid.

(Background: In response to Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, NATO increased its presence in the eastern part of the alliance, including with four multinational battlegroups in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland.)

The UK has sent 2000 units of UK-Swedish NLAW anti-tank missile systems. The British government warned that the Kremlin was planning to install a pro-Russian leader in Ukraine. Russian officials denied the allegations.

Germany refuses to send weapons but promises to open a military hospital. Kyiv's foreign minister tweeted that it seemed as if Germany was "undermining NATO" and "encouraging Vladimir Putin."

Germany's navy chief resigned Saturday after saying at a recent think tank event that Ukraine will probably never get Crimea back from Russia. The opposition leader demanded to provide help to Ukraine.

Here it is important to highlight the importance of economic factors, and in particular, gas and oil trade on the situation. In 2020, the EU accounted for almost one-third of the Russian trade. It is Russian biggest market for natural gas and the biggest investor.

At the same time, the EU relies on Russia to support almost 40% of natural gas & 25% of oil. These relationships are especially important to Germany. The almost finished Nordstream 2 pipeline that will support natural gas to Germany can be used as leverage to curb the aggression

Germany can refuse to give the final approval to the pipeline. In a smart move, the US officials started discussing increasing production of liquefied natural gas and re-routing to Europe with major energy-producing countries and companies worldwide.

The U.S. is sending lethal weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, including 300 Javelin that can destroy roughly 750 units of armored vehicles, 500 missiles, and 79 tons of equipment. Yesterday, the Pentagon put 8,500 American troops on "high alert"...

...to be possibly deployed to the allies' territory but not to the region. Biden has discussed deploying several thousand U.S. troops, as well as warships and aircraft, to NATO allies in Eastern Europe.

The options include sending 1,000 to 5,000 troops, with the potential to increase that number tenfold (Up to 50,000 to Eastern Europe, 3 divisions to be prepared.). These logistics, medical, transportation, and intelligence and surveillance support units...

... could join a NATO response force of about 40,000 troops. Other U.S. forces already in Europe could be sent to NATO's eastern flank: Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, and Poland. The U.S. has some military presence in Ukraine.

Elements of the Florida National Guard are currently deployed there as part of a regular rotational force that trains and equips Ukrainian forces.

What are the consequences? The situation has dire consequences for the world's economy. Among many factors to consider: Ukraine supplies food to Africa and Asia, and the war will cause crisis and price changes throughout the world. The oil prices will be affected.

Currently, the Russian economy is the one that takes a major blow. Investors are getting rid of the Russian assets due to the possible Western-imposed sanctions. P Morgan has completely withdrawn from the Russian ruble, closing all remaining positions in Russian currency

...citing unforeseeable risks in connection with the buildup of Russian forces on the border with Ukraine. As a result, Moscow's Moex stock index fell more than 7.5% ; yields on Russia's government debt hit their highest level in six years.

The rouble closed in on a record low against the dollar in 14 months. The stock market crash has wiped $150 billion off the value of Russia's top companies. The Russian central bank, the Bank of Russia, stepped in and suspended the purchase of foreign currency ...

...due to this collapse of the ruble and markets. With the further crackdown on the opposition, Navalny and his allies being pronounced terrorists, the business class is not the one to voice opposition to war, according to the Moscow Times.

Future measures, as proposed by the Biden administration, can include the West cutting Russia off the SWIFT banking system and the US banning Russia from using the dollar, as well as sanctioning individuals close to the Kremlin.

How likely is the war?
According to the Snowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, the indication of imminent war is the combination of cyberattacks, "snap" military exercises, and evacuations of non-combatants.

Cyberattacks: Yesterday, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kirgistan were left without electricity for six hours; reason unknown. In Belarus, a hacking group claimed control of Belarusian railroads in a move to "disrupt" Russian troops heading to Ukraine.

Military exercises are now being conducted by Russia Belarus and NATO. Iran, China, Russia, conducted naval and air drills in the Indian Ocean this week, following Iranian President's official visit to Moscow, where he said Tehran has "no limits for expanding ties with Russia".

NATO started nearly two-week-long drills in the Mediterranean Sea today, with the US participating. Strike group was operating under alliance command, a post-Cold War first. The exercise was planned months ago, well before Russia's renewed threat of a Ukraine invasion.

Canada, the US, UK, Germany, and Australia ordered family members of diplomatic staff stationed in Ukraine to leave the country. The State Department ordered the families of all American personnel at the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine to leave

What kind of war could it be?
Some experts spoke of "lightning raid" but the majority of analysts doubt that Russia will have an easy time invading Ukraine. Ukrainian troops are trained and prepared after eight years of war.

Across Ukraine, thousands of civilian volunteers form Territorial Defence units and take basic combat training courses. In times of war, these groups would go under the direct command of the Ukrainian military and the Russian army would be met with a prolonged insurgency.

Many analysts believe that Kharkiv, Odesa, and the land corridor to Crimea are possible targets. Kharkiv has many Russian speakers and the Kremlin hopes to get local support. In the past, the Kremlin relied on the Russian communities in Donbas, Crimea, and Ossetia, Georgia.

One of the complicated matters here is Azov, one of the most combat-ready regiments in the national guard. The US Senate banned the supply of heavy weapons to Azov due to its extreme right-wing ideology. Odesa is an important air-force base and can be the target.

Russian troops on the Belarusian border will weaken the Ukrainian defense, but the Ukrainians can use 200 new generation of light anti-tank UK-Swedish weapons and that would work because there are not enough engineering constructions in this region.

Russian aerial attacks could be damaging. The Ukrainian army needs air-defense systems which did not arrive in the last shipment of the US weapons.

We should expect modern warfare, sometimes called hybrid war or asymmetrical war. Military propaganda is the major weapon used to weaken the army and population of the adversary.

In addition to cyberattacks and massive disinformation campaigns, Russia can use other strategies, such as administrative moves and lawfare. For instance, to throw the West into turmoil, the Kremlin can suspend Western airlines' overflight rights. Lawfare is already being used.

For instance, the lower house of the Federal Assembly of Russia discusses a draft proposal to claim DNR and LNR as part of Russia. This week, the District Administrative Court in Kyiv has accepted the statement of the ousted president, pro-Kremlin Yanukovych

regarding the illegal detention of his authority. The court hearing is scheduled for February 16, 2022. By accepting the claim, the court legitimized Yanukovych's claim to the presidency.

Why is this happening? From the beginning of his presidency, Putin, heartbroken by the fall of the Soviet empire, has been consistently pushing the idea of creating a Eurasian State, that will stretch from Lisbon to Vladivostok, with the Russian nation at the core.

In 2000, Putin said, "the ideas of the age-old community, the interconnectedness of peoples inhabiting the vast expanses of Eurasia: from the Baltic and the Carpathians to the Pacific Ocean. ...

..."The instructive charge that Eurasian ideas carry is especially important today … We know that Nazarbayev is an adherent not only of the idea but also of the creation of the Eurasian Union of States."

For the last 30 years, Putin has made similar statements in his yearly address to the Federal Assembly. His foreign policy reflects the plan to build a new empire, the surrogate of the USSR, the Eurasian Union of States, and establish world dominance.

Recent events only confirm his intentions.
On January 6, 2020, Russian troops "intervened" in Kazakhstan where the protesters revolted against the influence of Nur-Sultan Nazarbaev, the former president who stayed in power for 30 years,

the supporter of the Eurasian theory, and his puppet, a current president. Notably, the Kremlin blamed the West for preparing paramilitary groups to undermine the regime. (Gaslighting again, a tactic of the combat propaganda, as mentioned.)

A close look at the current events in the world will reveal more: This week, the Armenian president has resigned after Putin's call with the prime minister.

Other political reasons include Putin's long-term goal to weaken the NATO, EU, and the US, and exciting the patriotic moods to increase his popularity domestically. The Kremlin used the "siege" mentality and external enemy concept to control the population at home.

The economic and strategic reasons include the Kremlin needs the freshwater supply from the Dnipro River north of Crimea, which provides 85% of Crimea's drinking water.

One can only hope that the West will find a way to settle the conflict. Thread 👆 #RussiaUkraine #Russia #Ukraine #UkraineInvasion #IStandWithUkraine Слава Україні!