Aaron Derfel Profile picture
Jan 27 10 tweets 5 min read
1) Although Quebec continues to lead the country in the number of #COVD19 deaths per million population, other provinces are now beginning to catch up, underscoring the gravity of this terrible fifth wave. In this thread, I will discuss what this means for Canada and Quebec.
2) First, though, I would like to recognize a sombre milestone crossed: Quebec on Wednesday declared a total of 13,009 COVID deaths — by far, the highest of any province. The chart below shows how the current wave of #pandemic deaths has surpassed last January’s.
3) But as I noted in my last thread — confirmed by reporting by the Canadian Press — the wave of #COVID deaths in Quebec has exposed a new fatal blind spot in the government’s handling of the #pandemic: the tardy 3rd dose vaccination of elderly shut-ins.
4) The chart below shows Quebec continuing to lead the provinces with a rolling seven-day average of eight COVID deaths per million population. However, that rate has dipped from 8.4 nearly a week ago, suggesting that #pandemic mortality may have peaked in Quebec in this wave.
5) The other big surprise in the chart by Quebec’s public health institute is the surge in #COVID deaths in Prince Edward Island. P.E.I. now ranks second on the inter-provincial chart, confirming the latest news of nine deaths this month alone in Canada’s smallest province.
6) But deaths are surging in other provinces, too, as predicted by Tara Moriarity (@MoriartyLab) an expert in these matters. Unfortunately, Moriarity’s work is being politicized, slammed by Saskatchwan Premier Scott Moe and praised by Premier François Legault, for their own ends.
7) And contrary to Legault’s repeated assertions that inter-provincial comparisons don’t make sense (except when they do in showing Quebec in a favorable light, see below), the latest trends across the country truly illustrate the gravity of this latest wave in the #pandemic.
8) COVID deaths are now rising fast in Ontario, Manitoba, Alberta, Nova Scotia and Saskatchewan. What'll be important to confirm is whether Ontario’s decision to give booster shots to older people in the community earlier than Quebec will make a difference in its mortality rate.
9) Perhaps that’s the saddest, most tragic aspect of this latest wave of the #pandemic in Quebec. What if authorities had administered third doses to seniors in the community earlier? Would that proactive measure have saved more lives? End of thread. Please go get your shot.
ADDENDUM: Before somebody brings this up — unless they have already — I forgot to point out that #COVID deaths are climbing, too, in New Brunswick and British Columbia.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

Jan 28
1) Quebec’s new chief public health officer stunned the scientific world Thursday when he seemed to shrug off the precautionary principle and dismissed installing air purifiers in schools during the #pandemic. What key knowledge does Dr. Luc Boileau possess on this subject?
2) "We don’t have to deploy this equipment, which has not been shown in a school context to be a factor of improvement (in dealing) with COVID in particular,” Boileau said at a news conference. “There’s no demonstration on the scientific side.”
3) In this thread, I will draw your attention to what just a few other jurisdictions and scientific bodies have had to say about air purifiers in schools, each one applying the precautionary principle during the worst respiratory #pandemic since the 1918 Spanish Flu.
Read 9 tweets
Jan 27
1) For the longest time, Israel was held as the model around the world on how to launch a #COVID19 vaccination campaign effectively. But that campaign appears to be stalling and hospitalizations there are now rising. In this thread, I'll compare Israel with Quebec's approach. Image
2) Compared with many other jurisdictions — Quebec included — Israel was the first out of the gate to conduct mass vaccination in the #pandemic. It has also proceeded with a 4th dose for those over the age of 60, while many countries are still struggling to administer 3rd doses.
3) Yet the percentage of Israelis who are considered adequately vaccinated has plunged in the last few months. Today, it's in Cuba where most people are adequately vaccinated. Israel is now in 23rd place and Canada has surpassed Israel to place in 17th spot. See the chart below. Image
Read 11 tweets
Jan 26
1) It is now universally acknowledged that Quebec authorities maintained a big blind spot during the #pandemic's first wave: the province’s long-term care residences. In this thread, I will focus on what appears to be a new fatal blind spot: the personal homes of the elderly.
2) First though — on the day Quebec Premier François Legault asserted that the province was emerging from the #pandemic's tunnel of darkness — the Health Ministry declared another 85 #COVID deaths. The latest mortality wave may be bigger than last January’s. Please see below.
3) Since January 1st, a total of 1,212 Quebecers have died from and with #COVID19. Most who have passed away were in their 80s and 90s and had been living at home — not in long-term care (CHSLDs). Why are they the ones dying now, and could their deaths have been prevented?
Read 13 tweets
Jan 25
1) One success story in the #pandemic in Quebec that's not getting much attention by the news media are dental clinics. To my knowledge, there has been only one #COVID outbreak in a dental clinic. What is the secret of the dental clinics and how could this be applied elsewhere?
2) Dental clinics in Quebec have been required by the Health Ministry since May 2020 to improve the ventilation in their facilities. Dentists wear N95 masks, face shields and clinics use portable air purifiers with HEPA filters.
3) My dentist, Peter Weinstein (who graduated at the top of his class at McGill University’s dentistry school), uses not one but 2 air purifiers in the small confines of his dental suite. He told me today — as he replaced one of my crowns — he hasn’t had a single #COVID outbreak.
Read 9 tweets
Jan 24
1) Since the pandemic's start, Florida’s cumulative death toll has surged to 290 per 100,000 population — likely an undercount because the state is likely suppressing data. Quebec’s cumulative rate stands at 146.7 per 100,000. In this thread, I will compare the two jurisdictions.
2) Despite Florida’s much higher #COVID death toll, there are virtually no #pandemic restrictions in the state. As Josh Freed observed in his perceptive weekend column in the @mtlgazette, Florida feels like another planet, or a Cowboyland. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
3) COVID denialists and anti-vaxxers have seized on Freed’s column to argue that #pandemic restrictions don’t make sense and that we should let the #coronavirus rip through Quebec and other places. Forget that Florida’s death toll is at least twice as high as Quebec’s.
Read 16 tweets
Jan 23
1) So many times in this #pandemic, people have held out hope that the end may be near, only for those hopes to be dashed. Think of how many times Premier François Legault has said he could see the light at the end of the tunnel (“On voit enfin la lumière au bout du tunnel”).
2) But in this short thread, please let me indulge in a sliver of hope. At least for one day. First, 39% of Quebec’s population above the age of 5 has received a third vaccine dose — up from 17% on Jan. 1. So for those who are vaccine hesitant, I plead for you to get your shot.
3) We know that the number of #COVID cases is not a reliable indicator because Quebec is no longer testing adequately for the #coronavirus. A better indicator are ICU stays, which have dipped to a net 273 from 286 a week ago.
Read 6 tweets

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