Thread by @therealarod1984

1/30 - Texas C19 Wave Severity Analysis

THREAD:

Now that we are on the backside of this wave, we can start to focus on severe outcomes and comparisons to previous waves. Well look at

* General Hospitalizations
* ICU
* Vents
* Fatalities
* CFR

1/n

1/30 TX Severe outcomes - Page 2

* We'll start with a view of all metrics, including Cases
* Obviously the 2021 Winter Wave was nothing like we've seen before in regards to Cases
* However, general hospitalizations peaked slightly below the previous 2 waves
#Casedemic

2/n

1/30 TX Severe outcomes - Page 3

* If we eliminate cases, the hospitalization metrics become clear
* Left axis = gen hospitalizations
* Right axis = ICU, Vents, Fatalities
* While Gen hosps are similar, ICU/Vents are going to peak SIGNIFICANTLY lower than previous two waves

3/n

1/30 TX Severe outcomes - Page 4

* My tried & true Gen Hospitalizations vs Fatalities chart
* Due to how delayed fatality reporting is, 12/23 - 1/8 fatalities below are projections, and chart doesn't show Jan 9 to now.
* You can see historically how close they charted

4/n

1/30 TX Severe outcomes - Page 5

* Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is the rate of cases sent to the State DSHS vs Fatalities attributed to C19
* CFR differs from Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) which estimates all infection - asymptomatic, mildly symptomatic, home tests, etc

5/n

1/30 TX Severe outcomes - Page 6

* CFR has hovered between 1.5% & 3% throughout the pandemic
* But look where CFR is through Jan 9 of Omicron. Dec 23 - Jan 9 again is projected based on past arrival analysis. Its not going to change much. I'm not projecting past Jan 9

6/n

1/30 TX Severe outcomes - Page 7

* CFR @ 0.25% is less than flu. Because again, this is cases recorded by the state over fatalities on that day.
* While fatalities lag, and CFR will assuredly rise off of 0.25%, CFR has already hit a low 4X lower than any previous wave.

7/n

1/30 TX Severe outcomes - Conclusion

It's preliminary, but its already apparent Winter 2021 was a severe casedemic. Its flu numbers. That's not my opinion, that's the charts. Just realized I need to cite them, they are all sourced right here.

8/end

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