It’s a delusion to think mass spread of Omicron will end the pandemic

The idea that herd immunity from widespread Omicron infection will last longer than a few months is a mass delusion propagating in all forms of media. 1/
It’s the type of delusion sure to gain traction in a world where we are all absolutely sick and tired of the pandemic. It even ignores reality from three months ago, when Omicron didn’t exist and the idea of us benefitting from infecting everyone was a widely condemned idea. 2/
The reality is we are causing COVID-19 to mutate on a scale never seen before. By allowing the virus to infect much of the world, we are generating trillions upon trillions of viruses. 3/
Because the world has chosen not to pursue adequate public health measures, new variants will be evolutionarily selected for their ability to evade protection from vaccination and infection. 4/
And by the way, variants aren’t invariably milder than those they precede – Alpha and Delta were both more severe than the original strain. 5/
Though there will undoubtedly be other variants, the heir apparent to Omicron is likely already known: Omicron BA.2. This strain is best understood as its own variant because it has so many additional mutations. 6/
BA.2 may soon get its own Greek letter name from the WHO, because it is dominant in India and growing exponentially in Europe by heavily outcompeting Omicron there. 7/
If we continue to treat Omicron’s transmissibility as an intractable problem that makes infection inevitable, we are accepting that, without a scientific silver bullet that so far doesn’t exist, we may be stuck in this pandemic indefinitely. 8/
We need to look past what is right in front of our noses. If we keep approaching every variant as if it will be the last, we will never get out of this. 9/
The people who have been saying “this isn’t over” have been ignored at almost every step of this pandemic, and they have also been right every time.
Let the science overtake the pace of viral mutation!! 10/

theglobeandmail.com/opinion/articl…

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More from @vipintukur

Feb 1
The possibility of using animal-adapted variants to develop a multivalent SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, such as that for the vaccinia virus for smallpox.

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
In fact, a half-adapted mink variant was barely able to spread among humans. It probably had low virulence and was quickly replaced by a more infectious variant.
A more adapted variant would probably not be able to spread from humans to humans. Once a weakly toxic variant is selected, it can be maintained and propagated in its host and cultured cells.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 31
The most burning 🔥 Questions right now:

Will #SARS2 continue to mutate to escape antibody protection? Do we need another booster? If so, what’s the next formula? For example, do we need an Omicron-specific vaccine?
1/
By the time an Omicron-specific vaccine is tested, we won’t have an Omicron wave anymore. So, is there still value in rolling it out? 2/
It all depends on how the SARS2 keep on evolving? The problem is it’s not following a fixed pattern. We know about evolutionary features of two viruses namely #flu and #measles. 3/
Read 18 tweets
Jan 31
People are being reinfected immediately again after #Omicron infection!!

A new study shows that immunity based upon “mild" Omicron infection is weak for Omicron reinfection, and limited for cross immunity to Delta infection. 1/
Overall, immunity from Omicron infection is much lower than the immunity from Delta infection, correlated with the severity of infection. 2/
What does that mean?
Unless you get a severe infection with all of its consequences you also don’t get immunity from having another infection.
And recall even immunity from severe infection wanes rapidly in a few months. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Jan 31
Transmission of SARS2 #Omicron’s subvariants BA.1 & BA.2

A Danish households transmission study

➡️ The secondary attack rate was estimated as 29% and 39% in households infected with Omicron BA.1 and BA.2, respectively. 1/
➡️ BA.2 was associated with an increased susceptibility of infection compared to BA.1.

-Unvaccinated (Odds Ratio (OR) 2.19; 95%-CI 1.58-3.04),
-Fully vaccinated (OR 2.45; 95%-CI 1.77-3.40)
-Booster-vaccinated (OR 2.99; 95%-CI 2.11-4.24). 2/
➡️ There was an increased transmissibility from unvaccinated primary cases in BA.2 households when compared to BA.1 households, with an OR of 2.62 (95%-CI 1.96-3.52). 3/
Read 8 tweets
Jan 30
Last night, renowned Indian virologist, Dr T Jacob John predicted that the pandemic would end in the spring of 2022 & the #Omicron is probably the last VOC! Let’s see what are the other views on these issues. 1/
Making predictions is a risky thing. More so with the SARS2. Perhaps we know enough now to know we shouldn’t try to predict anything about this virus! 2/
No, the SARS2 has not stop evolving, and the #Omicron isn’t the last VOC. We are already witnessing its intense evolution in form of sister lineages like BA.2 & BA.1.1 which are quite distinct & distanced from the Omicron 3/
Read 28 tweets
Jan 29
COVID vaccine #boosters are proving a useful tool against Omicron, but many believe that endless boosting might not be a practical or sustainable strategy. 1/
Because protection from boosters might be short-lived, rolling out endless doses — potentially at the expense of immunizing unvaccinated people in low-income nations — is not a “viable or reasonable” long-term global strategy. 2/
Then, what are options?
1-Continue to go for repeated boosting at regular intervals
2-Develop new vaccines. What are the options:
a. Variant-specific vaccines
b. Pan-coronavirus vaccine (pansarbecovirus vaccine, at least) 3/
Read 4 tweets

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