Antoine FLAHAULT Profile picture
Feb 2 7 tweets 5 min read
1/5 - France (R-eff=0.95) has reached the peak of its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with 279,279 cases and 298 deaths/day foreseen by Feb 08, if at same pace.
80.2% received 1 dose;
Regional forecast Feb 02 to Feb 05:
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/5 - Four mainland Régions have reached their peak in #COVID19 new cases and are landing to their safe zones, with [very] high mort:
AURA (R-eff=0.92);
[Corse=0.97];
[Ile-de-Fr=0.79].
[PACA=0.96].
3/5 - Eight mainland Régions are close to reaching their peak in #COVID19 new cases, with [very] high mortality:
Bourgogne-Franche-Comté (R-eff=1.07);
Bretg=1.06;
Ctre-Val-L=1.01;
Grand-Est=1.04:
Hts-de-Fr=1.02;
Normd=1.01;
[Occitanie=1.08];
Pays-de-Loire=1.08.
4/5 - One mainland Région is still rising in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with high mortality:
Nouvelle-Aquitaine (R-eff=1.11).
5/5 – Overseas Régions are experiencing high #COVID19 epidemic activity:
- Close to its peak in La Réunion (R-eff=1.04), very high mortality;
- [Slowly] landing in [Martinique=0.92]; Guadeloupe=0.69; Guyane=0.53, with [high] or very high mortality;
Safe in Mayotte=0.32.
6/5 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
@elisa_manetti
@AdelineDugerdil

A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K pop/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activ < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...
7/5 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0

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More from @FLAHAULT

Feb 3
1/9 - Feb 03 to Feb 09 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience Image
2/9 - Western Europe
Three profiles in #COVID19:
- Landing, [very] high mortality: [IT (R-eff=0.83)];IRL;SP;FL;FR;
- Plateau, [low/med] high (very high/alarming) mort: [ICL/CH;BE];LUX;(UK=0.97;PT/GR);
- Deteriorating:
. [Very] high mort: [SE];DK=1.08;AT;
. Med-low mort: NO;NL;DE. ImageImageImageImage
3/9 - East-Central Europe
- Surge or rise in #COVID19 cases, high mortality:
Czech=1.27; Eston=1.21; Hung=1.11; Latv=1.24;Lith=1.21; Pol=1.19; Romn=1.26; Russia=1.36;Slovk=1.36; Slovn=1.19;Ukr=1.3;
- Reaching their peak, alarming mortality: Bulg=1.03; Croat=0.98; Serb=1.03. Image
Read 11 tweets
Feb 3
1/5 - France (R-eff=0.91) is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone, with 237,583 cases and 297 deaths/day foreseen by Feb 09, if at same pace.
80.3% received 1 dose;
Regional forecast Feb 03 to Feb 06:
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience ImageImageImage
2/5 - Five mainland Régions have reached their peak in #COVID19 new cases and are landing to their safe zones, with [very] high mort:
AURA (R-eff=0.93);
[Corse=0.97];
Hauts-de-France=1.0;
[Ile-de-France=0.80].
[PACA=0.96]. ImageImageImageImage
3/5 - Seven mainland Régions are close to reaching their peak in #COVID19 new cases, with [very] high mortality:
Bourgogne-Franche-Comté (R-eff=1.03);
Bretagne=1.05;
Centre-Val-Loire=1.02;
Grand-Est=1.05:
Normandie=1.01;
[Occitanie=1.08];
Pays-de-Loire=1.07.
Read 7 tweets
Feb 2
1/9 - Feb 02 to Feb 08 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/9 - Western Europe
Three profiles in #COVID19:
- Landing, medium/[very] high mortality: IRL (R-eff=0.75)/SP;FL;[IT];
- Plateau, [low/med] high (alarming) mort: [ICL/CH];UK=0.98;LUX;FR;(GR);
- Deteriorating:
. High mort:PT;DK=1.08;SE;BE;AT;
. Med-low mort:NO;NL;DE.
3/9 - East-Central Europe
The whole sub-region experiences high #COVID19 epid activ, with alarming [high] mort:
Bulg=1.03; Croat=1.01; [Czech=1.15; Eston=1.25; Hung=1.13; Latv=1.27;Lith=1.21; Pol=1.26; Romn=1.28; Russia=1.36;Serb=1.05; Slovk=1.39; Slovn=1.21;Ukr=1.32].
Read 11 tweets
Feb 1
1/9 - Feb 01 to Feb 07 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/9 - Western Europe
Three profiles in #COVID19:
- Improving, medium/[very] high mortality: IRL (R-eff=0.72);FL=0.81;/SP=0.86;[IT=0.88];
- Plateau, [low] high (alarming) mort: [ICL;CH];UK=0.95;LUX;FR;(GR);
- Deteriorating:
. High mort:PT;DK=1.07;SE;BE;AT;
. Med-low mort:NO;NL;DE.
3/9 - East-Central Europe
The whole sub-region experiences high #COVID19 epid activ, with alarming [high] mort:
Bulg=1.07; Croat=1.05; [Czech=1.27; Eston=1.25; Hung=1.15; Latv=1.26;Lith=1.22; Pol=1.27; Romn=1.28; Russia=1.38;Serb=1.06; Slovk=1.40; Slovn=1.22;Ukr=1.33].
Read 11 tweets
Feb 1
1/4 - France (R-eff=1.0) has reached the peak of its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with 331,615 cases and 304 deaths/day foreseen by Feb 07, if at same pace.
80.2% received 1 dose;
Regional forecast Feb 01 to Feb 04:
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
By @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/4 - Eight mainland Régions are:
- Close to their peak in #COVID19 new cases, with [very] high mortality:
Bretg (R-eff=1.07);
Ctre-Val-L=1.05;
[Corse=0.97];
Hts-de-Fr=1.08;
Normd=1.04;
[PACA=1.02];
- Landing to their safe zones, [very] high mort:
AURA=0.94;
[Ile-de-Fr=0.81].
3/4 - Five mainland Régions are still rising in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with [very] high mortality:
[Bourgogne-Franche-Comté (R-eff=1.10)];
Grand-Est=1.11:
Nouvelle-Aquitaine=1.14;
[Occitanie=1.11;]
Pays-de-Loire=1.12.
Read 6 tweets
Jan 31
1/16 - “After the World Health Organization’s regional chief for Europe expressed hope last weekend that the continent could be moving to a “pandemic endgame”, his WHO superiors moved quickly to play down such optimism.”
ft.com/content/037a3a…
2/16 - “Director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus clarified Hans Kluge’s remarks the following day by insisting it was “dangerous to assume . . . we’re in the endgame” of coronavirus while WHO Europe stressed that the “pandemic is not over yet”.
3/16 - “The confused messaging cuts to the heart of a debate that was bubbling even before the #Omicron variant sparked a global infection surge: at what point does the world move on from the pandemic?”
Read 16 tweets

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