Antoine FLAHAULT Profile picture
Feb 1 11 tweets 10 min read
1/9 - Feb 01 to Feb 07 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/9 - Western Europe
Three profiles in #COVID19:
- Improving, medium/[very] high mortality: IRL (R-eff=0.72);FL=0.81;/SP=0.86;[IT=0.88];
- Plateau, [low] high (alarming) mort: [ICL;CH];UK=0.95;LUX;FR;(GR);
- Deteriorating:
. High mort:PT;DK=1.07;SE;BE;AT;
. Med-low mort:NO;NL;DE.
3/9 - East-Central Europe
The whole sub-region experiences high #COVID19 epid activ, with alarming [high] mort:
Bulg=1.07; Croat=1.05; [Czech=1.27; Eston=1.25; Hung=1.15; Latv=1.26;Lith=1.22; Pol=1.27; Romn=1.28; Russia=1.38;Serb=1.06; Slovk=1.40; Slovn=1.22;Ukr=1.33].
4/9 - Africa -
Four #COVID19 profiles:
- Surging in Libya (R-eff=1.39);
- Rising in Tunisia=1.12, high mortality;
- Plateauing in Botswana=1.02; [South Africa=0.95], with low [high] mortality.
- Improving in Morocco.
5/9 - Middle-East
Three profiles in #COVID19 cases, :
- Landing in:
Qatar; Saudi-Arabia;UAE;
- Reaching its peak in Israel=1.04 (78.5% received 1 dose); very high mortality;
- Deteriorating in:
Iran (R-eff=1.45); Iraq=1.18; ; Jordan=1.30; Kuwait=1.1; Lebanon=1.11; Oman=1.23.
6/9 - Asia & Pacific
- Rising in #COVID19 epidemic activity: Malaysia (R-eff=1.17); with low mortality.
- Plateauing in Thailand=1.04; [Vietnam=0.97], with low [medium] mortality;
- (Slow) landing in (Kazakhstan=0.92); Mongolia; Philippines; Laos, with low [medium] mortality.
7/9 - Asia & Pacific (cont'd)
- Rapid/worrying surge in #COVID19 epid activ, very low mortality:
Japan (R-eff=1.31); South Korea=1.38; Pakistan=1.16;
- Peak reached in India=0.94; Nepal=0.93;
- Landing in Australia, with high mortality;
- Safe in: NZ=1.36; China=1.10;Taiwan=1.04.
8/9 - North America -
- Canada (R-eff=0.93) is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safe zone, very high mort., 86.5% 1 dose. Red (R-eff>0.90) in Saskatchewan, NWT, Nun, NS PEI, orange elswhere.
- USA=0.78 (75.9%) are landing, very high mortality, red in 13 states, orange in 37.
9/9 - Latin America -
The sub-region experiences high #COVID19 epidemic activity, [very] high mort.
Three profiles:
- Surging-rising: Brazil (R-eff=1.19); Chile=1.33; [Peru=1.13];
- Plateauing: Cuba=0.96; Mexico=0.97;[Uruguay=0.99]
- Landing: [Argentina; Bolivia; Colombia].
10/9 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
@elisa_manetti
@AdelineDugerdil

Definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...
11/9 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0

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More from @FLAHAULT

Feb 2
1/9 - Feb 02 to Feb 08 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience Image
2/9 - Western Europe
Three profiles in #COVID19:
- Landing, medium/[very] high mortality: IRL (R-eff=0.75)/SP;FL;[IT];
- Plateau, [low/med] high (alarming) mort: [ICL/CH];UK=0.98;LUX;FR;(GR);
- Deteriorating:
. High mort:PT;DK=1.08;SE;BE;AT;
. Med-low mort:NO;NL;DE. ImageImageImageImage
3/9 - East-Central Europe
The whole sub-region experiences high #COVID19 epid activ, with alarming [high] mort:
Bulg=1.03; Croat=1.01; [Czech=1.15; Eston=1.25; Hung=1.13; Latv=1.27;Lith=1.21; Pol=1.26; Romn=1.28; Russia=1.36;Serb=1.05; Slovk=1.39; Slovn=1.21;Ukr=1.32]. Image
Read 11 tweets
Feb 2
1/5 - France (R-eff=0.95) has reached the peak of its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with 279,279 cases and 298 deaths/day foreseen by Feb 08, if at same pace.
80.2% received 1 dose;
Regional forecast Feb 02 to Feb 05:
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience ImageImageImage
2/5 - Four mainland Régions have reached their peak in #COVID19 new cases and are landing to their safe zones, with [very] high mort:
AURA (R-eff=0.92);
[Corse=0.97];
[Ile-de-Fr=0.79].
[PACA=0.96]. ImageImageImageImage
3/5 - Eight mainland Régions are close to reaching their peak in #COVID19 new cases, with [very] high mortality:
Bourgogne-Franche-Comté (R-eff=1.07);
Bretg=1.06;
Ctre-Val-L=1.01;
Grand-Est=1.04:
Hts-de-Fr=1.02;
Normd=1.01;
[Occitanie=1.08];
Pays-de-Loire=1.08.
Read 7 tweets
Feb 1
1/4 - France (R-eff=1.0) has reached the peak of its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with 331,615 cases and 304 deaths/day foreseen by Feb 07, if at same pace.
80.2% received 1 dose;
Regional forecast Feb 01 to Feb 04:
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
By @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/4 - Eight mainland Régions are:
- Close to their peak in #COVID19 new cases, with [very] high mortality:
Bretg (R-eff=1.07);
Ctre-Val-L=1.05;
[Corse=0.97];
Hts-de-Fr=1.08;
Normd=1.04;
[PACA=1.02];
- Landing to their safe zones, [very] high mort:
AURA=0.94;
[Ile-de-Fr=0.81].
3/4 - Five mainland Régions are still rising in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with [very] high mortality:
[Bourgogne-Franche-Comté (R-eff=1.10)];
Grand-Est=1.11:
Nouvelle-Aquitaine=1.14;
[Occitanie=1.11;]
Pays-de-Loire=1.12.
Read 6 tweets
Jan 31
1/16 - “After the World Health Organization’s regional chief for Europe expressed hope last weekend that the continent could be moving to a “pandemic endgame”, his WHO superiors moved quickly to play down such optimism.”
ft.com/content/037a3a…
2/16 - “Director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus clarified Hans Kluge’s remarks the following day by insisting it was “dangerous to assume . . . we’re in the endgame” of coronavirus while WHO Europe stressed that the “pandemic is not over yet”.
3/16 - “The confused messaging cuts to the heart of a debate that was bubbling even before the #Omicron variant sparked a global infection surge: at what point does the world move on from the pandemic?”
Read 16 tweets
Jan 31
1/9 - Jan 31 to Feb 06 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/9 - Western Europe
Three profiles in #COVID19:
- Improving, medium/[very] high mortality: IRL (R-eff=0.61); FL=0.76;/UK=0.93;SP=0.91;[IT=0.89];
- Peak or plateau, high mort: ICL;FR;[GR];
- Deteriorating:
. High mort: PT; DK=1.19;SE;BE;
. Med-low mort: AT; NO; NL; CH; DE; LUX.
3/9 - East-Central Europe
The whole sub-region is surging in its #COVID19 epid activ, with alarming [high] mort:
Bulg=1.11; Croat=1.08; [Czech=1.26; Eston=1.32; Hung=1.21; Latv=1.31;Lith=1.30; Pol=1.33; Romn=1.33; Russia=1.36;Serb=1.08; Slovk=1.47; Slovn=1.24;Ukr=1.39].
Read 11 tweets
Jan 31
1/4 - France (R-eff=0.98) has reached the peak of its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with 313,048 cases and 314 deaths/day foreseen by Feb 06, if at same pace.
80.2% received 1 dose;
Regional forecast Jan 31 to Feb 03:
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
By @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/4 - Seven mainland Régions are either
- Close to their peak in #COVID19 new cases, with [very] high mortality:
AURA (R-eff=1.03);
Bretagne=1.09;
Ctre-Val-Loire=1.08;
[Corse=1.0];
Normandy=1.09;
[PACA=1.06];
- Landing to its safety zone:
Ile-de-France=0.82, very high mortality.
3/4 - Six mainland Régions still rise in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with [very] high mortality:
[Bourgogne-Franche-Comté (R-eff=1.11)];
Grand-Est=1.12:
Hauts-de-France=1.10;
Nouvelle-Aquitaine=1.17;
[Occitanie=1.12;]
Pays-de-Loire=1.14.
Read 6 tweets

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