Antoine FLAHAULT Profile picture
Feb 3 7 tweets 6 min read
1/5 - France (R-eff=0.91) is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone, with 237,583 cases and 297 deaths/day foreseen by Feb 09, if at same pace.
80.3% received 1 dose;
Regional forecast Feb 03 to Feb 06:
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/5 - Five mainland Régions have reached their peak in #COVID19 new cases and are landing to their safe zones, with [very] high mort:
AURA (R-eff=0.93);
[Corse=0.97];
Hauts-de-France=1.0;
[Ile-de-France=0.80].
[PACA=0.96].
3/5 - Seven mainland Régions are close to reaching their peak in #COVID19 new cases, with [very] high mortality:
Bourgogne-Franche-Comté (R-eff=1.03);
Bretagne=1.05;
Centre-Val-Loire=1.02;
Grand-Est=1.05:
Normandie=1.01;
[Occitanie=1.08];
Pays-de-Loire=1.07.
4/5 - Nouvelle-Aquitaine (R-eff=1.11) is the only remaing mainland Région of France which is still rising in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with high mortality.
5/5 – Overseas Régions are experiencing high #COVID19 epidemic activity:
- Close to its peak in La Réunion (R-eff=1.04), very high mortality;
- [Slowly] landing in [Martinique=0.95]; Guadeloupe=0.78; Guyane=0.50, with [high] or very high mortality;
Safe in Mayotte=0.29.
6/5 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
@elisa_manetti
@AdelineDugerdil

A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K pop/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activ < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...
7/5 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0

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More from @FLAHAULT

Feb 4
1/9 - Feb 04 to Feb 10 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience Image
2/9 - Western Europe
Three profiles in #COVID19:
- Landing, [very] high mortality: [IT (R-eff=0.82)];IRL;SP;FL;FR;
- Plateau, [low/med] high (very high/alarming) mort: [ICL/CH];LUX;(UK=0.99;PT;SE/GR);
- Deteriorating:
. High mort: DK=1.09;AT;BE;
. Med-low mort: NO;NL;DE. ImageImageImageImage
3/9 - East-Central Europe
- Increase in #COVID19 cases, very high mortality:
Czech=1.22; Eston=1.18; Hung=1.09; Latv=1.23;Lith=1.19; Pol=1.18; Romn=1.24; Russia=1.35;Slovk=1.33; Slovn=1.19;Ukr=1.28;
- Plateau or peak, alarming mortality:
Bulg=0.98; Croat=0.96; Serb=1.01. Image
Read 11 tweets
Feb 4
1/5 - France (R-eff=0.87) is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone, with 195,888 cases and 287 deaths/day foreseen by Feb 10, if at same pace.
80.2% received 1 dose;
Regional forecast Feb 04 to Feb 07:
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience ImageImageImage
2/5 - Ten mainland Régions have reached their peak in #COVID19 new cases, landing to their safety zones, with [very] high mort:
AURA (R-eff=0.89);
Brg-Frche-C=0.97;
Ctre-Val-L=0.97;
[Corse=0.95];
Grd-Est=0.99:
Hts-de-Fr=0.96;
Ile-de-Fr=0.77.
Norm=0.99;
P-de-L=0.99.
[PACA=0.91]. ImageImageImageImage
3/5 - Two mainland Régions are close to reaching their peak in #COVID19 new cases, with [very] high mortality:
Bretagne (R-eff=1.04);
[Occitanie=1.06].
Read 7 tweets
Feb 3
1/9 - "Scientists who track coronavirus mutations are closely monitoring an uptick in cases of an #Omicron sub-variant named BA.2, just as countries were beginning to hope the worst of the latest wave of #COVID19 infections had passed."
ft.com/content/efa3ce…
2/9 - "The strain has been detected in 57 countries, according to the WHO, and now accounts for about 10% of #SARSCoV2 sequences uploaded to Gisaid. Omicron BA.1 is still responsible for most cases. Nevertheless, BA.2 has become the dominant variant in DK, India and S. Africa."
3/9 - "BA.2 possesses up to 27 mutations that are not found in the original version of #Omicron, BA.1. Separate research from public health bodies in DK and the UK looking at household transmission indicate that these mutations make BA.2 30%-34% more infectious than BA.1."
Read 9 tweets
Feb 3
1/9 - Feb 03 to Feb 09 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/9 - Western Europe
Three profiles in #COVID19:
- Landing, [very] high mortality: [IT (R-eff=0.83)];IRL;SP;FL;FR;
- Plateau, [low/med] high (very high/alarming) mort: [ICL/CH;BE];LUX;(UK=0.97;PT/GR);
- Deteriorating:
. [Very] high mort: [SE];DK=1.08;AT;
. Med-low mort: NO;NL;DE.
3/9 - East-Central Europe
- Surge or rise in #COVID19 cases, high mortality:
Czech=1.27; Eston=1.21; Hung=1.11; Latv=1.24;Lith=1.21; Pol=1.19; Romn=1.26; Russia=1.36;Slovk=1.36; Slovn=1.19;Ukr=1.3;
- Reaching their peak, alarming mortality: Bulg=1.03; Croat=0.98; Serb=1.03.
Read 11 tweets
Feb 2
1/9 - Feb 02 to Feb 08 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/9 - Western Europe
Three profiles in #COVID19:
- Landing, medium/[very] high mortality: IRL (R-eff=0.75)/SP;FL;[IT];
- Plateau, [low/med] high (alarming) mort: [ICL/CH];UK=0.98;LUX;FR;(GR);
- Deteriorating:
. High mort:PT;DK=1.08;SE;BE;AT;
. Med-low mort:NO;NL;DE.
3/9 - East-Central Europe
The whole sub-region experiences high #COVID19 epid activ, with alarming [high] mort:
Bulg=1.03; Croat=1.01; [Czech=1.15; Eston=1.25; Hung=1.13; Latv=1.27;Lith=1.21; Pol=1.26; Romn=1.28; Russia=1.36;Serb=1.05; Slovk=1.39; Slovn=1.21;Ukr=1.32].
Read 11 tweets
Feb 2
1/5 - France (R-eff=0.95) has reached the peak of its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with 279,279 cases and 298 deaths/day foreseen by Feb 08, if at same pace.
80.2% received 1 dose;
Regional forecast Feb 02 to Feb 05:
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/5 - Four mainland Régions have reached their peak in #COVID19 new cases and are landing to their safe zones, with [very] high mort:
AURA (R-eff=0.92);
[Corse=0.97];
[Ile-de-Fr=0.79].
[PACA=0.96].
3/5 - Eight mainland Régions are close to reaching their peak in #COVID19 new cases, with [very] high mortality:
Bourgogne-Franche-Comté (R-eff=1.07);
Bretg=1.06;
Ctre-Val-L=1.01;
Grand-Est=1.04:
Hts-de-Fr=1.02;
Normd=1.01;
[Occitanie=1.08];
Pays-de-Loire=1.08.
Read 7 tweets

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