Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/5 - France (R-eff=0.91) is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone, with 237,583 cases and 297 deaths/day foreseen by Feb 09, if at same pace.
80.3% received 1 dose;
Regional forecast Feb 03 to Feb 06:
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/5 - Five mainland Régions have reached their peak in #COVID19 new cases and are landing to their safe zones, with [very] high mort:
AURA (R-eff=0.93);
[Corse=0.97];
Hauts-de-France=1.0;
[Ile-de-France=0.80].
[PACA=0.96].

3/5 - Seven mainland Régions are close to reaching their peak in #COVID19 new cases, with [very] high mortality:
Bourgogne-Franche-Comté (R-eff=1.03);
Bretagne=1.05;
Centre-Val-Loire=1.02;
Grand-Est=1.05:
Normandie=1.01;
[Occitanie=1.08];
Pays-de-Loire=1.07.

4/5 - Nouvelle-Aquitaine (R-eff=1.11) is the only remaing mainland Région of France which is still rising in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with high mortality.

5/5 – Overseas Régions are experiencing high #COVID19 epidemic activity:
- Close to its peak in La Réunion (R-eff=1.04), very high mortality;
- [Slowly] landing in [Martinique=0.95]; Guadeloupe=0.78; Guyane=0.50, with [high] or very high mortality;
Safe in Mayotte=0.29.

6/5 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
@elisa_manetti
@AdelineDugerdil

A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K pop/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activ < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

7/5 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0