Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/4 - France (R-eff=1.0) has reached the peak of its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with 331,615 cases and 304 deaths/day foreseen by Feb 07, if at same pace.
80.2% received 1 dose;
Regional forecast Feb 01 to Feb 04:
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
By @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/4 - Eight mainland Régions are:
- Close to their peak in #COVID19 new cases, with [very] high mortality:
Bretg (R-eff=1.07);
Ctre-Val-L=1.05;
[Corse=0.97];
Hts-de-Fr=1.08;
Normd=1.04;
[PACA=1.02];
- Landing to their safe zones, [very] high mort:
AURA=0.94;
[Ile-de-Fr=0.81].

3/4 - Five mainland Régions are still rising in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with [very] high mortality:
[Bourgogne-Franche-Comté (R-eff=1.10)];
Grand-Est=1.11:
Nouvelle-Aquitaine=1.14;
[Occitanie=1.11;]
Pays-de-Loire=1.12.

4/4 – Overseas Régions are experiencing high #COVID19 epidemic activity:
- Close to its peak in La Réunion (R-eff=1.06), very high mortality;
- [Slowly] landing in [Martinique=0.91]; Guadeloupe=0.71; Guyane=0.47, with [high] or very high mortality;
Safe in Mayotte=0.30.

5/4 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
@elisa_manetti
@AdelineDugerdil

A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K pop/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activ < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

6/4 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0