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Rob Lee Profile picture
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Feb 5 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Noticeable difference between what Ukrainian officials are saying publicly and privately. If Russia wants to have all pieces in place, they'll probably be there in about a week. Then Russia could escalate within hours or days with little public warning.
nytimes.com/2022/02/04/wor…
Personally, I think Zelensky's behavior is rational. By acting as though everything is normal, he's preventing Russian coercion from disrupting the Ukrainian economy or way of life without using military force. But I hope the Ukrainian military is taking appropriate steps. 2/
Presumably, this means another BTG from the 7th Air Assault Division has been moved to Crimea where its 56th Air Assault Regiment is located. It also seems Russia has deployed a number of helicopters to Crimea recently from elsewhere in the Southern Military District. 3/
We've seen Rosgvardia troops deployed in a few areas around Ukraine. In addition, the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade in Crimea has also reportedly been alerted. Keep in mind, Russia's naval infantry are used for amphibious operations but also for protecting naval facilities. 4/
I disagree with this. If Russia decides to escalate, it will be very fast and lethal mostly with fires. There's little reason to start small since it gives away surprise. 5/
A number of Serna and other landing craft were spotted in port in Novorossiysk a month or two ago, but there are still fewer there now than in April when the Caspian Flotilla deployed more than 10 landing craft and artillery boats. 6/

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Rob Lee Profile picture
Feb 5
@JenGriffinFNC reports Russia has 83 BTGs near Ukraine with another 14 in transit. That means Russia has 1/2 of its total number of BTGs near Ukraine, which represents about half of Russia's ground combat power. 14 more BTGs would bring the total to ~100 as US intel predicted.
h/t @gerrydogma
It seems the US intel assessment from the beginning of December correctly predicted the size of the force Russia has assembled near Ukraine. I still don't think they'll pull together 100k reservists, but the BTG figure looks very accurate. 2/
Read 6 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Feb 2
To be clear, I'm not predicting that Russia will invade on Feb 9, I'm saying that it will likely have all of the necessary military capabilities in place around then, which means an escalation is more likely after then. The risk will remain high until the CMD & EMD troops leave.
That won't happen until the end of Feb at the earliest. We're still waiting to see troops deploy to man the equipment at Yelnya and other assembly areas. Until they start moving them, which could coincide with the exercise in Belarus, then an escalation isn't quite "imminent".
It is also worth noting that the situation in Kazakhstan may have delayed Russia's buildup near Ukraine by a week or two. Russia could keep the units from the Northern Fleet and Eastern/Central Military Districts near Ukraine for months, but there would be costs.
Read 4 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Feb 1
Some people misinterpreted this tweet. Russia doesn't have all the pieces in place yet but is moving them right now (e.g. helicopters, VDV, air defenses, pipeline troops, logistics, etc.). They'll likely all be in place by February 9th. That's when an escalation is more likely.
Many of the units deployed near Ukraine aren't fully manned. I suspect we'll soon start seeing troops airlifted to Ukraine's border to man this equipment likely during the exercise in Belarus. If Russia wants to conduct a large-scale escalation, it will then have the capability.
Also worth keeping in mind when looking at negotiations with Russian officials that they are continuing to deploy forces, including from the Northern Fleet, near Ukraine. They may get close to 100 BTGs + 5 Iskander-M brigades and other important capabilities in two weeks.
Read 4 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Jan 31
It is certainly possible that Putin will backdown, but then the buildup will have been a strategic failure for Moscow. NATO countries will consider future buildups as bluffs and will draw the lesson that increased arms exports to Ukraine were decisive and will send more arms.
There will be a credibility cost for Russia and Kyiv will only be more emboldened to purse policies that will upset Moscow and to seek longer-range weapon systems. It would be a remarkable strategic blunder for Putin, which is why I think an escalation is more likely.
Plus, they are deploying a lot of equipment and units from the Eastern Military District. It is highly unlikely Russia would keep this force in Belarus until next fall. They'll be in a strong position to escalate once the exercise is over but readiness costs will soon increase.
Read 4 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Jan 27
A nice rundown of perspectives. I want to emphasize that Russia's current behavior—the demands, rhetoric, and buildup—are unprecedented. It is entirely possible that Russia's next steps will not be similar to previous uses of military force but could also be unprecedented.
So we are all debating how much a Russian escalation would look like 2008, 2014, and 2015. All of those events had an external catalyst that led to Russia's response. If Russia escalates now without such a clear event, it would be a significant departure from previous behavior.2/
There is a lot of uncertainty about which COA Russia may choose, and they could of course change their ultimate goal after deciding to escalate depending on how the conflict is going. We should also keep in mind that the Russian military is much more capable than 2008-2015. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Jan 26
I would argue Russia has deployed the necessary equipment but just needs to send troops to man that equipment at this point. They will also move in another 10+ VDV BTGs if they decide to escalate. The slow preparation steps have already been taken, the next steps would be quicker
Let's not forget how many troops Russia's Military Transport Aviation can move on short notice. They moved quite a bit of equipment to Kazakhstan over the span of a week. Flying troops is much easier.
Russia has ~70 BTGs near Ukraine with important additional army and district-level assets (e.g. S-300V, Redut-2US, Iskander-M). If they continue moving units at this rate and deploy the VDV, they'll have half of the Russian military's BTGs near Ukraine in ~2 weeks.
Read 4 tweets

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