Evergreen Intel Profile picture
Feb 5 โ€ข 5 tweets โ€ข 3 min read
This is a huge red flag.

Russian Air Force ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Eastern Military District Su-25SMs from (likely) 18th Guards Assault Aviation Regiment, Chernigovka Airbase, Primorsky Krai moved to airfields in ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡พ Belarus.

These aircraft are crucial to a ground attack.

tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/1โ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡พ Luninets Airbase is mentioned as a location for Su-25SM deployment.

It is also a site with recently added S-400 & Pantsir-S deployments.

Recent evidence indicates the base keeps the runway free of snow.

In the video in the link, I'm able to jot down some nose and registration numbers. 10 Su-25s with several from 18 Shturmovik Av Regt, seemingly confirming the movement. tvzvezda.ru/news/202225249โ€ฆ
The Su-25 from 266th ShAP may have been transferred at some point and I am willing to disregard this datapoint, but based on ID numbers of the Su-25s in the video, looks like 3 others appear to be from 18th Shturmovik Av Regt (per @scramble_nl).
Just for good measure, visual confirmation it is Luninets AB, ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡พ Belarus.

In summary: at least 10 Su-25s to Luninets (52.2791, 26.7803) with a high probability they are from ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ 18th Shturmovik Aviation Regiment from Chernigovka AB, Primorsky Krai.

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More from @vcdgf555

Jan 5
Even Russia is acknowledging the police are shooting back.

"A group of protesters is trying to take the building of the ROVD in Alma-Ata, the police are shooting back"

3/
Read 30 tweets
Nov 23, 2021
On the evening of November 19 2021, RCH8194, C-17A 08-8194, lifted from Fort Campbell. It was 6:40PM (2340Z). It probably didn't make much difference to anyone in the area. These are common flights. Common enough for flight trackers who watch for this stuff to sometimes miss.

1/
Within a couple hours, it should have become a little more obvious.

Another C-17A, 00-0184 #AE08BE, was lifting from Fort Campbell around 7PM local, 0000Z, with RCH5E1, C-17A 04-4138 #AE1448, descending for Campbell's Army Airfield.

Something was beginning to move.

2/
Not much further away to the east at roughly the same time, RCH889, C-17A 06-6157 #AE145B, was lifting out of Fort Bragg/Pope AAF, NC.

At this moment, all aircraft involved had used in part or in whole Mode S to at least partially obfuscate their departures.

3/
Read 11 tweets
Nov 21, 2021
>flights ๐Ÿง

Has anyone identified them yet?
Sources (BBC, Pravda, Euroradio) indicate that several airlines are involved, increasing routes to meet an anticipated demand of tourists at discount rates to Minsk. Those involved (but not limited to):

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ถ Iraqi Airways
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡พ Belavia
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ทTurkish Airlines
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡พ Cham Wings Airlines
So here is what gets REALLY interesting.

The head of foreign economic activity for Minsk airport indicates that service routes are in the works to open for Kenya, Vietnam, Algeria, Iran, Morocco, Moldova, Qatar, Ethiopia as of early November.
belmarket.by/news/2021/11/0โ€ฆ
Read 4 tweets
Nov 14, 2021
New thread. Any military developments regarding the Belarussian border tension I find, I'll put here.

1/
Seeing several military VIP flights to Brussels ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช for the NATO meeting. Slovenian came and went.

They are:
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท ERJ-135 484 #4681E4
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ช CASA 235-100 MPA 252 #4CA13E
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น A319 MM62209 #33FFC1
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Falcon 2000 L1-01 #506F24
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช GIV SP 102004 #4A8199

2/ Image
As such, NATO-member VIP jet spots across the pond:

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น IAM3131 is Italian Air Force Dassault Falcon 900 MM62245 #33FFAD. To Andrews AFB.
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡บ HUAF777 is Hungarian Air Force Dassault Falcon 7X 607 #477FF7, out of Tampa IAP.

3/ Image
Read 20 tweets
Nov 2, 2021
Here comes the fuzz.

USAF RC-135W Rivet Joint SIGINT 62-4131 #AE01CC
USAF KC-135R tanker 60-0339 #AE0483
USN EP-3E Aries II SIGINT 159893 #AE1D95
USN MQ-4C Triton UAV 168460 #AE5C74
More surveillance.

MILKY76 is USAF ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ E-8C J-STARS 99-0006 #AE1497
Something I noticed earlier... the 2 leading Taiwanese Radarbox stations are virtually unusable today.

Probably just a coincidence.
Read 19 tweets

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