Russian Air Force ๐ท๐บ Eastern Military District Su-25SMs from (likely) 18th Guards Assault Aviation Regiment, Chernigovka Airbase, Primorsky Krai moved to airfields in ๐ง๐พ Belarus.
In the video in the link, I'm able to jot down some nose and registration numbers. 10 Su-25s with several from 18 Shturmovik Av Regt, seemingly confirming the movement. tvzvezda.ru/news/202225249โฆ
The Su-25 from 266th ShAP may have been transferred at some point and I am willing to disregard this datapoint, but based on ID numbers of the Su-25s in the video, looks like 3 others appear to be from 18th Shturmovik Av Regt (per @scramble_nl).
Just for good measure, visual confirmation it is Luninets AB, ๐ง๐พ Belarus.
In summary: at least 10 Su-25s to Luninets (52.2791, 26.7803) with a high probability they are from ๐ท๐บ 18th Shturmovik Aviation Regiment from Chernigovka AB, Primorsky Krai.
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On the evening of November 19 2021, RCH8194, C-17A 08-8194, lifted from Fort Campbell. It was 6:40PM (2340Z). It probably didn't make much difference to anyone in the area. These are common flights. Common enough for flight trackers who watch for this stuff to sometimes miss.
1/
Within a couple hours, it should have become a little more obvious.
Another C-17A, 00-0184 #AE08BE, was lifting from Fort Campbell around 7PM local, 0000Z, with RCH5E1, C-17A 04-4138 #AE1448, descending for Campbell's Army Airfield.
Something was beginning to move.
2/
Not much further away to the east at roughly the same time, RCH889, C-17A 06-6157 #AE145B, was lifting out of Fort Bragg/Pope AAF, NC.
At this moment, all aircraft involved had used in part or in whole Mode S to at least partially obfuscate their departures.
Sources (BBC, Pravda, Euroradio) indicate that several airlines are involved, increasing routes to meet an anticipated demand of tourists at discount rates to Minsk. Those involved (but not limited to):
The head of foreign economic activity for Minsk airport indicates that service routes are in the works to open for Kenya, Vietnam, Algeria, Iran, Morocco, Moldova, Qatar, Ethiopia as of early November. belmarket.by/news/2021/11/0โฆ
As such, NATO-member VIP jet spots across the pond:
๐ฎ๐น IAM3131 is Italian Air Force Dassault Falcon 900 MM62245 #33FFAD. To Andrews AFB.
๐ญ๐บ HUAF777 is Hungarian Air Force Dassault Falcon 7X 607 #477FF7, out of Tampa IAP.