I compiled a list—as exhaustive as possible—of all peer-reviewed & published research articles that evaluate the effectiveness of nonpharmaceutical interventions, specifically lockdowns on COVID-19
➡️Papers finding NPIs effective outnumber, by 8 to 1, those finding the opposite
➡️Papers finding NPIs effective outnumber, by 8 to 1, those finding the opposite
Criteria for inclusion in the list:
1-Be a RESEARCH ARTICLE (data, methods, results). Commentaries, opinion pieces, etc, do not qualify
2-Be PEER-REVIEWED & PUBLISHED among the 26,000 titles in Scopus
3-Be EXPLICIT. No secondhand interpretation of the data
1-Be a RESEARCH ARTICLE (data, methods, results). Commentaries, opinion pieces, etc, do not qualify
2-Be PEER-REVIEWED & PUBLISHED among the 26,000 titles in Scopus
3-Be EXPLICIT. No secondhand interpretation of the data
Regarding criterion #3: the authors must explicitly state in the text whether their results suggest NPIs are effective or not
Their exact words have been peer-reviewed & published. Your interpretation of figures or data tables has not.
Their exact words have been peer-reviewed & published. Your interpretation of figures or data tables has not.
The list will be updated over time. Currently there are 51 papers:
38 papers find NPIs generally effective (✅)
6 papers find NPIs generally ineffective (🚫)
7 papers are inconclusive (❔)
These first 51 papers are sorted by order of publication below:
38 papers find NPIs generally effective (✅)
6 papers find NPIs generally ineffective (🚫)
7 papers are inconclusive (❔)
These first 51 papers are sorted by order of publication below:
1. science.sciencemag.org/content/early/…
✅ "we detected change points in the effective growth rate that correlate well with the times of publicly announced interventions" (May 2020)
✅ "we detected change points in the effective growth rate that correlate well with the times of publicly announced interventions" (May 2020)
2. ajicjournal.org/article/S0196-…
✅ "The results were remarkably consistent across states and support the usefulness of stay-at-home orders in reducing COVID-19 infection rates" (May 2020)
✅ "The results were remarkably consistent across states and support the usefulness of stay-at-home orders in reducing COVID-19 infection rates" (May 2020)
3. pnas.org/content/117/19…
✅ "Results suggest that the sequence of restrictions posed to mobility and human-to-human interactions have reduced transmission by 45% (42 to 49%)" (May 2020)
✅ "Results suggest that the sequence of restrictions posed to mobility and human-to-human interactions have reduced transmission by 45% (42 to 49%)" (May 2020)
4. nature.com/articles/s4158…
✅ "Our results show that major non-pharmaceutical interventions—and lockdowns in particular—have had a large effect on reducing transmission" (Jun 2020)
✅ "Our results show that major non-pharmaceutical interventions—and lockdowns in particular—have had a large effect on reducing transmission" (Jun 2020)
5. thelancet.com/journals/lance…
✅ "A strong linear trend suggests that countries that went into lockdown earlier experienced fewer deaths" (Jun 2020)
✅ "A strong linear trend suggests that countries that went into lockdown earlier experienced fewer deaths" (Jun 2020)
6. thelancet.com/journals/lanin…
✅ "mobility patterns are strongly correlated with decreased COVID-19 case" (Jul 2020)
✅ "mobility patterns are strongly correlated with decreased COVID-19 case" (Jul 2020)
7. jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/…
✅ "school closure was associated with a significant decline in both incidence of COVID-19 [...] and mortality" (Jul 2020)
✅ "school closure was associated with a significant decline in both incidence of COVID-19 [...] and mortality" (Jul 2020)
8. bmj.com/content/370/bm…
✅ "Physical distancing interventions were associated with reductions in the incidence of covid-19 globally" and "Earlier implementation of lockdown was associated with a larger reduction in the incidence of covid-19." (Jul 2020)
✅ "Physical distancing interventions were associated with reductions in the incidence of covid-19 globally" and "Earlier implementation of lockdown was associated with a larger reduction in the incidence of covid-19." (Jul 2020)
9. thelancet.com/journals/eclin…
❔ "we do not support a definitive judgement on the effectiveness" of interventions because "many countries included in our dataset were not yet in the “plateau” or downslope phase of their individual epidemiologic curves" (Jul 2020)
❔ "we do not support a definitive judgement on the effectiveness" of interventions because "many countries included in our dataset were not yet in the “plateau” or downslope phase of their individual epidemiologic curves" (Jul 2020)
10. nature.com/articles/s4158…
✅ "interventions prevented or delayed on the order of 61 million confirmed cases, corresponding to averting approximately 495 million total infections" (Aug 2020)
✅ "interventions prevented or delayed on the order of 61 million confirmed cases, corresponding to averting approximately 495 million total infections" (Aug 2020)
11. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ec…
✅ "approximately 3 weeks following the adoption of a [Shelter-in-Place Order], cumulative COVID-19 cases fell by approximately 53.5%" (Aug 2020)
✅ "approximately 3 weeks following the adoption of a [Shelter-in-Place Order], cumulative COVID-19 cases fell by approximately 53.5%" (Aug 2020)
12. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/10…
✅ "Three mitigation strategies (nonessential business closure, large-gathering bans, and restaurant/bar limitations) showed positive impacts on reducing cumulative cases, new cases, and death rates across states." (Sep 2020)
✅ "Three mitigation strategies (nonessential business closure, large-gathering bans, and restaurant/bar limitations) showed positive impacts on reducing cumulative cases, new cases, and death rates across states." (Sep 2020)
13. bmj.com/content/371/bm…
❔ "prompt interventions were shown to be highly effective at reducing peak demand for intensive care unit (ICU) beds" however the unintended consequence is that, in the absence of an effective vaccine, "when the interventions are lifted, there is...
❔ "prompt interventions were shown to be highly effective at reducing peak demand for intensive care unit (ICU) beds" however the unintended consequence is that, in the absence of an effective vaccine, "when the interventions are lifted, there is...
...still a large population who are susceptible and a substantial number of people who are infected. This then leads to a second wave of infections that can result in more deaths, but later." Vaccines being available "is not considered in the model" therefore...
... it is inconclusive how the model applies to the real-world. (Sep 2020)
14. academic.oup.com/cid/article/73…
✅ "We detected an immediate and significant reversal in SARS-CoV-2 epidemic suppression after relaxation of social distancing measures across the United States" (Oct 2020)
✅ "We detected an immediate and significant reversal in SARS-CoV-2 epidemic suppression after relaxation of social distancing measures across the United States" (Oct 2020)
16. ajtmh.org/view/journals/…
❔ "there appeared to be a negative association between mortality and time in lockdown (P = 0.83)" [P=0.83 is statistically insignificant, thus language "appeared" to evoke inconclusiveness] (Oct 2020)
❔ "there appeared to be a negative association between mortality and time in lockdown (P = 0.83)" [P=0.83 is statistically insignificant, thus language "appeared" to evoke inconclusiveness] (Oct 2020)
17. sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
✅ "We find that in the counterfactual world in which Wuhan were not locked down on January 23, 2020, the COVID-19 cases would be 105.27% higher in the 347 Chinese cities outside Hubei province" (Nov 2020)
✅ "We find that in the counterfactual world in which Wuhan were not locked down on January 23, 2020, the COVID-19 cases would be 105.27% higher in the 347 Chinese cities outside Hubei province" (Nov 2020)
18. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wm…
✅ "the implementation speed of these containment measures in response to the coronavirus had a strong effect on the successful mitigation of fatalities" (Nov 2020)
✅ "the implementation speed of these containment measures in response to the coronavirus had a strong effect on the successful mitigation of fatalities" (Nov 2020)
19. nature.com/articles/s4156…
✅ "The most effective NPIs include curfews, lockdowns and closing and restricting places where people gather" however "Less disruptive and costly NPIs can be as effective as more intrusive, drastic, ones (for example, a national lockdown)" (Nov 2020)
✅ "The most effective NPIs include curfews, lockdowns and closing and restricting places where people gather" however "Less disruptive and costly NPIs can be as effective as more intrusive, drastic, ones (for example, a national lockdown)" (Nov 2020)
20. emerald.com/insight/conten…
✅ "This study finds that a longer duration of a shelter-in-place order is associated with lower cases and deaths per capita from COVID-19" (Nov 2020)
✅ "This study finds that a longer duration of a shelter-in-place order is associated with lower cases and deaths per capita from COVID-19" (Nov 2020)
21. sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
✅ "We find that approximately 90% of the curbed growth in COVID-19 cases in Texas came from the early adoption of SIPOs by urbanized counties" however "the later statewide shelter-in-place mandate yielded relatively few health benefits" (Nov 2020)
✅ "We find that approximately 90% of the curbed growth in COVID-19 cases in Texas came from the early adoption of SIPOs by urbanized counties" however "the later statewide shelter-in-place mandate yielded relatively few health benefits" (Nov 2020)
22. frontiersin.org/articles/10.33…
🚫 "Stringency of the measures settled to fight pandemia, including lockdown, did not appear to be linked with death rate" (Nov 2020)
🚫 "Stringency of the measures settled to fight pandemia, including lockdown, did not appear to be linked with death rate" (Nov 2020)
23. sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
❔ "The decline of infections [...] can be attributed to relatively small interventions [...] Additional effects of later interventions cannot be detected clearly [thus] the effectiveness of most German interventions remains questionable" (Nov 2020)
❔ "The decline of infections [...] can be attributed to relatively small interventions [...] Additional effects of later interventions cannot be detected clearly [thus] the effectiveness of most German interventions remains questionable" (Nov 2020)
24. nature.com/articles/s4158…
✅ "the NPIs that were considered have indisputably contributed to reducing the spread of the virus" (Dec 2020)
✅ "the NPIs that were considered have indisputably contributed to reducing the spread of the virus" (Dec 2020)
25. science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…
✅ "These results indicate that, by using effective interventions, some countries could control the epidemic while avoiding stay-at-home orders" (Dec 2020)
✅ "These results indicate that, by using effective interventions, some countries could control the epidemic while avoiding stay-at-home orders" (Dec 2020)
26. valueinhealthjournal.com/article/S1098-…
🚫 "A national lockdown has a moderate advantage in saving lives with tremendous costs and possible overwhelming economic effects." (Dec 2020)
🚫 "A national lockdown has a moderate advantage in saving lives with tremendous costs and possible overwhelming economic effects." (Dec 2020)
27. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.11…
✅ "Implementing any NPIs was associated with significant reductions in case growth in 9 out of 10 study countries" however "we find no clear, significant beneficial effect of mrNPIs on case growth in any country" (Jan 2021)
✅ "Implementing any NPIs was associated with significant reductions in case growth in 9 out of 10 study countries" however "we find no clear, significant beneficial effect of mrNPIs on case growth in any country" (Jan 2021)
28. link.springer.com/article/10.100…
✅ "various types of social distance measures such as school closings and lockdowns, and how soon they were implemented, help explain the US/EUROPE gap in cumulative deaths" (Jan 2021)
✅ "various types of social distance measures such as school closings and lockdowns, and how soon they were implemented, help explain the US/EUROPE gap in cumulative deaths" (Jan 2021)
29. bmjopen.bmj.com/content/11/2/e…
✅ "International travel was directly associated with the mortality slope and thus potentially the spread of COVID-19. Very early restrictions on international travel should be considered to control COVID-19 outbreaks" (Jan 2021)
✅ "International travel was directly associated with the mortality slope and thus potentially the spread of COVID-19. Very early restrictions on international travel should be considered to control COVID-19 outbreaks" (Jan 2021)
30. sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
✅ "We also find that, without stay-at-home orders, cases would have been larger by 6 to 63 percent and without business closures, cases would have been larger by 17 to 78 percent" (Jan 2021)
✅ "We also find that, without stay-at-home orders, cases would have been larger by 6 to 63 percent and without business closures, cases would have been larger by 17 to 78 percent" (Jan 2021)
31. royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rs…
✅ "Lockdown-like measures were associated with greater than 50% transmission reduction for all age groups" (Feb 2021)
✅ "Lockdown-like measures were associated with greater than 50% transmission reduction for all age groups" (Feb 2021)
32. nature.com/articles/s4159…
✅ "The timing of lockdowns reveals that a “tunneling” effect on incidence can be achieved to bypass the peak and prevent pandemic caseloads from exceeding hospital capacity." (Feb 2021)
✅ "The timing of lockdowns reveals that a “tunneling” effect on incidence can be achieved to bypass the peak and prevent pandemic caseloads from exceeding hospital capacity." (Feb 2021)
33. mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/6…
✅ "Less stringent interventions increase the number of deaths, whereas more severe responses to the pandemic can lower fatalities" (Mar 2021)
✅ "Less stringent interventions increase the number of deaths, whereas more severe responses to the pandemic can lower fatalities" (Mar 2021)
34. academic.oup.com/cesifo/article…
🚫 "I find no clear association between lockdown policies and mortality development" (Mar 2021)
🚫 "I find no clear association between lockdown policies and mortality development" (Mar 2021)
35. jclinepi.com/article/S0895-…
❔ "the impacts of lockdown are uncertain and highly model-dependent" and "We do not claim that lockdown measures definitely had no impact in the first wave of COVID-19" (Mar 2021)
❔ "the impacts of lockdown are uncertain and highly model-dependent" and "We do not claim that lockdown measures definitely had no impact in the first wave of COVID-19" (Mar 2021)
36. link.springer.com/article/10.105…
✅ "containment policies have, in general, a significant role in reducing the pandemic’s fatality rate across all countries" however "workplace closure is ineffective in low-income countries" (Apr 2021)
✅ "containment policies have, in general, a significant role in reducing the pandemic’s fatality rate across all countries" however "workplace closure is ineffective in low-income countries" (Apr 2021)
37. degruyter.com/document/doi/1…
✅ "we show that lockdowns substantially reduced COVID-19 cases" (Apr 2021)
✅ "we show that lockdowns substantially reduced COVID-19 cases" (Apr 2021)
38. pnas.org/content/118/15…
❔ "We find that shelter-in-place orders had no detectable health benefits, only modest effects on behavior" however "our study should not be interpreted as evidence that social distancing behaviors are not effective" (Apr 2021)
❔ "We find that shelter-in-place orders had no detectable health benefits, only modest effects on behavior" however "our study should not be interpreted as evidence that social distancing behaviors are not effective" (Apr 2021)
39. journals.plos.org/plosone/articl…
✅ "Overall, the results suggest business shutdowns are effective, but should be selectively implemented and centrally coordinated" (May 2021)
✅ "Overall, the results suggest business shutdowns are effective, but should be selectively implemented and centrally coordinated" (May 2021)
40. academic.oup.com/heapol/article…
✅ "We found that COVID-19 containment and closure policies were most effective with respect to mobility and morbidity in higher income countries compared to lower income countries" (May 2021)
✅ "We found that COVID-19 containment and closure policies were most effective with respect to mobility and morbidity in higher income countries compared to lower income countries" (May 2021)
41. nature.com/articles/s4146…
✅ "Decreases in mobility were associated with substantial reductions in case growth two to four weeks later" (May 2021)
✅ "Decreases in mobility were associated with substantial reductions in case growth two to four weeks later" (May 2021)
42. academic.oup.com/rfs/article/34…
✅ "We find strong evidence consistent with the idea that [...] restaurant and bar closures, gym closures, and high-risk business closures reduce future fatality" however "Other business restrictions [...] may have been counterproductive" (Jun 2021)
✅ "We find strong evidence consistent with the idea that [...] restaurant and bar closures, gym closures, and high-risk business closures reduce future fatality" however "Other business restrictions [...] may have been counterproductive" (Jun 2021)
43. journals.plos.org/plosone/articl…
✅ "we show while stricter contemporaneous measures affected mobility, stringency in seven to fourteen days mattered most for containing the contagion" (Jun 2021)
✅ "we show while stricter contemporaneous measures affected mobility, stringency in seven to fourteen days mattered most for containing the contagion" (Jun 2021)
44. journals.plos.org/plosone/articl…
✅ "These results suggest that stay-at-home orders might have reduced confirmed cases by 390,000 (170,000 to 680,000) and fatalities by 41,000 (27,000 to 59,000) within the first 3 weeks in localities that implemented stay-at-home orders" (Jun 2021)
✅ "These results suggest that stay-at-home orders might have reduced confirmed cases by 390,000 (170,000 to 680,000) and fatalities by 41,000 (27,000 to 59,000) within the first 3 weeks in localities that implemented stay-at-home orders" (Jun 2021)
45. dovepress.com/whether-county…
🚫 "The relation between distance (complexity of neighbouring) and confirmed cases (contagion) could be explored. Our research shows county lockdown in the USA plays no important role in containing the spread of coronavirus" (Jun 2021)
🚫 "The relation between distance (complexity of neighbouring) and confirmed cases (contagion) could be explored. Our research shows county lockdown in the USA plays no important role in containing the spread of coronavirus" (Jun 2021)
46. eurosurveillance.org/content/10.280…
✅ "Our analyses confirm that the imposition of non-pharmaceutical control measures have been effective in controlling epidemics in each investigated country" however "we were unable to demonstrate a strong impact from every intervention" (Jul 2021)
✅ "Our analyses confirm that the imposition of non-pharmaceutical control measures have been effective in controlling epidemics in each investigated country" however "we were unable to demonstrate a strong impact from every intervention" (Jul 2021)
47. tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…
🚫 "Our preferred baseline model indicates that the first national lockdown in England and Wales had a net mortality increasing effect" (Aug 2021)
🚫 "Our preferred baseline model indicates that the first national lockdown in England and Wales had a net mortality increasing effect" (Aug 2021)
48. journals.plos.org/plosone/articl…
❔ "it does not imply that lockdowns had no effect, but it does suggest that other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) may have been much more effective than Knock et al. imply" (Sep 2021)
❔ "it does not imply that lockdowns had no effect, but it does suggest that other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) may have been much more effective than Knock et al. imply" (Sep 2021)
49. link.springer.com/article/10.100…
✅ "Partial lockdown [...] is seen to be highly effective in confining cases" however they add "as compared to a complete lockdown" (Jan 2022)
✅ "Partial lockdown [...] is seen to be highly effective in confining cases" however they add "as compared to a complete lockdown" (Jan 2022)
50. mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/3…
✅ Our findings support the evidence that besides the vaccine increasingly contributing to pandemic control, the implementation of NPIs also plays a key role (Jan 2022)
✅ Our findings support the evidence that besides the vaccine increasingly contributing to pandemic control, the implementation of NPIs also plays a key role (Jan 2022)
51. sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
✅"The synergistic effectiveness of all NPIs for reducing COVID-19 infections declined along waves, from 95.4% in the 1st wave to 56.0% in the 3rd wave recently at the global level and similarly from 83.3% to 58.7% at the USA national level" (Feb 2022)
✅"The synergistic effectiveness of all NPIs for reducing COVID-19 infections declined along waves, from 95.4% in the 1st wave to 56.0% in the 3rd wave recently at the global level and similarly from 83.3% to 58.7% at the USA national level" (Feb 2022)
52. journals.plos.org/plosone/articl…
✅ "Among the NPIs considered, bans of large gatherings were most effective, followed by venue and school closures, whereas stay-at-home orders and work-from-home orders were least effective" (Jun 2021)
✅ "Among the NPIs considered, bans of large gatherings were most effective, followed by venue and school closures, whereas stay-at-home orders and work-from-home orders were least effective" (Jun 2021)
53. nature.com/articles/s4146…
✅ "Defining a “lockdown” policy as a ban on all gatherings and closure of all nonessential businesses, we estimate a total reduction in Rt of 52% [95% CI: 47–56%]" (Oct 2021)
✅ "Defining a “lockdown” policy as a ban on all gatherings and closure of all nonessential businesses, we estimate a total reduction in Rt of 52% [95% CI: 47–56%]" (Oct 2021)
54. bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.11…
"the effectiveness of school closure and internal movement restrictions appears robust across different model specifications, with some evidence that other NPIs may also be effective under particular conditions" (Feb 2021)
"the effectiveness of school closure and internal movement restrictions appears robust across different model specifications, with some evidence that other NPIs may also be effective under particular conditions" (Feb 2021)
55. thelancet.com/journals/lanin…
✅ "Individual NPIs, including school closure, workplace closure, public events ban, ban on gatherings of more than ten people, requirements to stay at home, and internal movement limits, are associated with reduced transmission" (Feb 2021)
✅ "Individual NPIs, including school closure, workplace closure, public events ban, ban on gatherings of more than ten people, requirements to stay at home, and internal movement limits, are associated with reduced transmission" (Feb 2021)
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