As the HoR moves ahead with appointing a new interim authority likely to be led by @fathi_bashagha, the GNU is suffering from major internal divisions/turbulence. Yesterday @Dabaibahamid tried to put on a brave face & rally Libyans to support him by going out on the streets.
People will not come out on the streets to support Dbaiba because he failed on every key file that his Gov was supposed to handle. He thought he could buy his way with the entire population the same way he managed to buy his way through the @UNSMILibya facilitated LPDF. #Libya
Yesterday @Dabaibahamid promised that he won't drag #Libya into another war or preside over a return to division, but at the same time vowed not to hand over power except to an elected authority. The irony is that he & his team worked hard to prevent the 24 Dec elections.
It is clear that @Dabaibahamid is no longer able to use the money to buy more time in power. Armed group leaders & MPs are taking his money but are not offering him anything in return, to the contrary, they're taking the money & then calling his opponent to offer support. #Libya
It's also clear that @Dabaibahamid did not build an armed alliance that is loyal to him in order to defend his seat of power in #Tripoli. His foreign backers (if any at this stage) are failing him & looking the other way as HoR process to replace him progresses. #Libya
As @fathi_bashagha is seen as the frontrunner to replace @Dabaibahamid in the HoR's vote set for tomorrow. He'll have to deal with some immediate challenges. 1- Ensuring the process of his appointment is transparent + secures required votes/quorum. 2- Forming the new Governemnt.
3- Taking a seat in #Tripoli & getting the GNU/Dbaiba out. 4- Governing/managing the alliance that brought him into his seat of power. These are going to be huge challenges & will require assistance from a capable team of advisers/ministers + allies both foreign/domestic. #Libya
Having his Gov seated anywhere other than #Tripoli is not an option for @fathi_bashagha. It is almost certain that he'll be in #Tripoli as soon as he is voted in by the HoR. The question will be how he'll manage to convince the GNU/Dbaiba to leave without a confrontation. #Libya
Another key challenge for @fathi_bashagha will be managing the alliance that was formed as a result of their common interest in unseating @Dabaibahamid & his GNU. #Libya
During his speech in front of the HoR on Monday @fathi_bashagha made explicit promises/pledges regarding the formation of his government + delivering elections in 14 months + not running in the upcoming elections. #Libya
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