Thread by @Eljarh

#Thread loss of Watiya airbase. What it means for the LNA's presence in western #Libya & repercussions for its support base elsewhere. Also, what does this mean for the LNA's external backers? #Libya

1- Loss of al-Watiya airbase is the most strategic loss for the LNA since the start of its offensive back in April 2019. The base represented an important asset for the LNA operations in western #Libya for combat/supplies. LNA advisers/officers admit to that.

2- No doubt the loss of al-Watiya will hit the morale of LNA forces elsewhere. GNA taking al-Watiya means freeing up resources/forces for the southern #Tripoli suburbs. This will bring unprecedented pressure on LNA forces stationed there. Tarhuna becomes the next target. #Libya

3- Al-Watiya airbase is the good news that #Erdogan promised a couple of weeks ago. #Turkey will seek to utilize the airbase for its expanded presence in western #Libya & will equip the base with assets that shape #Turkey's military footprint & operations in the future.

4- As #Turkey continues to step up its efforts in #Libya. Expect moves on important oil & gas sites/facilities in the southwest and also the oil terminals area in the central region. Control of oil & gas infrastructure is key for Turkey/GNA. #Libya

5- LNA's big losses have had two different types of impact on the LNA's support base in eastern #Libya. In one sense, they have resulted in rising anti-war sentiment + the Agilah episode. In another, it has galvanized more support among some constituencies due to some factors.

6- Loss of al-Watiya means whatever the LNA's external backers are doing to counter #Turkey's expansion in #Libya is not working. Will this hekp the chances of a political settlement or more escalation? I think the latter. Escalation has only begged further escalation, so far.