UK reports Delta Omicron recombination, this time it's the real thing.
I will try to answer 3 questions here:
1.Was this expected? 2.Is this the report from Cyprus?
3.Should we be concerned?
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1.Was this expected? Yes.
Recombination occurs when a cell is infected with 2 variants.
when 2 variants are in high # & % recombination is more likely to be visible. it is likely to occurred during the Δ times, but if AY.4 recombined with AY.3, that's gonna be hard to spot
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For example:
When α rose and mostly replaced B.1.177 in the UK, XA (recombinant of those 2) detected. github.com/cov-lineages/p…
With an algorithm developed by @DrorBendet I found additional Δ-ο suspects .
Among these are the lineage shown here which contains 2 breakpoints (2 parts of Δ with one part O in the middle).
2. Is this the report from Cyprus? No!
Those were just Δ sequences (Complete Δ, no breakpoint), from different AY lineages, that had ~2-3 mutations that also appeared in o.
Δ sequences with additional mutations like these found long before o emerged.
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Should we be concerned? Hard to say (but probably not).
Recombination is just another tool in the evolutionary toolbox of the virus. Like mutations that accumulate in a chronic infection, reverse zoonosis or even genetic drift from transmission in the community.
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Recombination is not the combination of mutations from both parents. Each variant contributes a part, but the complementary part disappears. For example, the unsuccessful BA.3 is a recombinant of BA.1 and BA.2 (which are causing the main part of the pandemic right now).
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Remember - The cases of α - B.1.177 ,Δ-α and now ο-Δ found in countries with high levels of 🧬. That may be attributed to those being really rare phenomena.
Successful Variants defined as VOC / VUI / VUM originated a lot from places with low 🧬 such as SA, India and Peru.
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How different is Omicron (o) ?
(more points for thought)
I took the %🧬 in different countries at the 3 genomic take overs:
α Vs. basal lineages
Δ Vs. α
o Vs. Δ
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In each country I took the %🧬 from when there is at least 1% after which there is a steady increase (to prevent bias from low coverage /borders🧬 ) and until it reached ~80 % (or the local peak). Just to mark the main local rise.
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The separation between the rise in the country of origin and the other countries does not demonstrate that the variant broke the borders only after it took over nationally as the data are lacking the initial lag growth phase which theoretically prolonged the graphs.
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Wanna know how different BA.2 can be? look BA.3
(Yes, there is a 3rd one).
ill show here that if we apply the logic some use to explain BA.2, BA.3 should also be successful, and it’s not.
(TL;DR Genetics are more complexed than what we would like to think.)
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In terms of GISAID # seq’s :
BA.1/2/3 has 528,773, 10,873 & 86 (respectively).
BA.3 did manage to transmit in the population. It was found in 9 countries in 3 continents. In Poland and SA it seems to transmit over time.
But in comparison to the other two BA’s… it sucks.
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Those are the positions in which BA.3 mutated ,only NS and del’s(S gene marked in the middle).
Blue – shared with BA.2
Red – shared with BA.1
Grey – unique.
(Recombination shout’s out of course.) 3/8
Omicron. It not what you think it is.
Omicron is a name given by the WHO not from a scientific reason but mostly for journalist not calling it “The south African variant #2”.
But BA.2 is not (!!!!) BA.1 as I explained in the thread attached.
Can it evade our immune response? Well, look at it’s RBD, 16 NS SNP's, 12 are shared with BA.1.
No one will be surprised if it’ll be somewhere in the BA.1 level.
Is BA.2 different?
BA.2 share 32 mutations with BA.1, but it also has 28 (!) unique mutations.
28, That's a lot. it’s more than the defining in α,β,δ, and most of Δ main clades.
I took the defining mutations of BA.1 & BA.2 (NS only), and compared the resemblance between the 2 variants in main parts of the genome. Some difference in S1. E is the same, N & M are different in 1 mutation between the two variants.
And...quite a difference when we go to ORF1ab
SARS-COV-2 translate non structural proteins and negatively select stop codons and frame shits within those for a reason.
RNA replication, proof reading, inhibition of innate immunity and more. Mediated by nonstructural proteins. affecting transmissibility and severity.
Omicron is a weird variant.
Together with @SternLab i took a dive into it's strangeness from the genomic point of view by analyzing the defining mutations of the 3 Omi’s (BA.1/2/3) and 65 other variants having a long branch in the tree and high % of NS mutations.
The strangest thing of course is the RBD mutations. There are a lot. As seen, they are not in line with the trend of many other variants.
But when looking at S1 (non RBD), Omi’s seems more in line with the general trend.
I see a lot of Omi samples with Delta mutations recently. Maybe contamination maybe convergence.
I went to look at it.
I took all non UK Omi samples from 26.12 (~17.5K) and looked for ones with Delta mutations (21j or 21i) using a code by @DrorBendet. I found 890 samples.
Here we can see that most of the samples are with 1-3 delta mutations. As we go to higher #delta mutations the probability for this to be a lab contamination is going up.
Here are the # of samples with each mutation. What pops up immediately is that the most prevalent ones are the more converged with other variants.