🇺🇦 ex-Minister of Defence: large-scale operation, massive bombing, capturing Kyiv are the least probable scenarios. Moscow’s attempt to organise trigger event, aggravation in eastern Ukraine, sabotage operations, cyber attack - highly likely. 1/5 @ukrpravda_news @KyivIndependent
Russia’s forces are well-equipped with weapons (including Iskander ballistic systems) and logistical/medical units, but they are not ready for a large-scale offensive. Massive bombing is also unrealistic as it will bury Russia’s plans to win “hearts and minds” of Ukrainians. 2/5
Kyiv is not a “more budget-friendly” target given the quality of troops defending it - 100 km of multi-level-defence around 3-Mio people metropolis with complex topography. It is so "autocratic" to suggest that having captured 🇺🇦 capital, Russia will control all of Ukraine. 3/5
🇷🇺 Black Sea Fleet reinforced with ships of the Pacific and Northern Fleets carries out a blockade of the Black and Azov Seas under the pretext of military exercises. If there is no harsh reaction to the provocation, it is a matter of time before it is repeated. 4/5
Disclosure of 🇷🇺intentions is an opportunity for pressure: we know your plans and are prepared. Polls show 🇺🇦unacceptance of occupation and readiness to resist. Attack will fail, lead to sanctions and isolation - catastrophic outcome for all of Russia. 5/5 kyivindependent.com/national/cente…
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