Pro-Russian accounts have been relaying Putin's rhetoric and saying that Ukraine is the aggressor state which does not want to implement the Minsk Protocols. 2/8
Data from Crowdtangle, a public insights tool owned and operated by Meta, shows an increase in mentions of the Minsk Protocols in Russian-language posts right after the Putin-Macron press conference 3/8
The dynamics of posts about Minsk Protocols on Telegram are very similar to what was observed on Facebook. According to tgstat.com 886 posts mentioning the agreements were posted on February 8, reaching 5,294,805 users 4/8
The Kremlin's disinformation campaigns on Minsk Protocols are based on its own understanding of how these agreements should be implemented. 5/8
The Kremlin and its proxies in the so-called "DPR" and "LPR" escalated hostilities both in 2014 and 2015 prior to negotiation of the Minsk Protocols (referred to as "Minsk-1" and "Minsk-2" in order to force a deal on Russia's terms, using the strategy of "coercion to peace." 6/8
According to the Kremlin's narrative, voiced both in the statements of Russian officials and on social networks, Ukraine is an aggressor state egged on by the West to attack the pro-Russian militants in Donbas or even Russia itself. 7/8
Such a narrative could be used as a possible pretext for a new Russian invasion of Ukraine. 8/8
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🇺🇦 ex-Minister of Defence: large-scale operation, massive bombing, capturing Kyiv are the least probable scenarios. Moscow’s attempt to organise trigger event, aggravation in eastern Ukraine, sabotage operations, cyber attack - highly likely. 1/5 @ukrpravda_news@KyivIndependent
Russia’s forces are well-equipped with weapons (including Iskander ballistic systems) and logistical/medical units, but they are not ready for a large-scale offensive. Massive bombing is also unrealistic as it will bury Russia’s plans to win “hearts and minds” of Ukrainians. 2/5
Kyiv is not a “more budget-friendly” target given the quality of troops defending it - 100 km of multi-level-defence around 3-Mio people metropolis with complex topography. It is so "autocratic" to suggest that having captured 🇺🇦 capital, Russia will control all of Ukraine. 3/5