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Garry Kasparov Profile picture
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Feb 17 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Calling Putin a chessplayer is wrong even if it weren't insulting! Dictators have advantages in bluffing & tactics because they can act quickly with no oversight. Democracies have, or should have, institutional consistency to rely on. bulwarkpodcast.thebulwark.com/p/garry-kaspar…
If Putin carries out his attack on Ukraine, it will be because he believes he won't suffer serious consequences, a calculation based on previous feeble responses to his aggression. By waiting & reacting only, instead of deterring, the West is encouraging more war.
It's good but not enough to openly and robustly support Putin's targets. Do not allow Ukraine to become a proxy battlegrounds. Putin and his mafia must have skin in the game, real consequences for the only thing that matters to them: money and the power in Russia to keep it.
The failure of imagination in the US & Europe is that allowing Putin to dominate the stage and make small gains is not success. The status quo is occupation of Ukraine and daily war, assassinations in Europe, hacking & election interference, and disinformation.

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More from @Kasparov63

Garry Kasparov Profile picture
Feb 18
Putin doesn't care if it's convincing or that something "looks bad". He only cares about consequences. He invaded Georgia in 2008 & Ukraine in 2014. He's still in power and still runs the richest mafia in the world.
Putin has been in power for 22 years, crushing Russian society while killing, jailing, and exiling all rivals and critics. He has assassinated across Europe and made war on neighbors. Calling anything he does a "miscalculation" requires proving it.
"Doesn't Putin realize how bad this looks?!" is one of most idiotic critiques of his oppression and aggression. Maybe he's better at being a brutal dictator than you are. Nemtsov murdered. Navalny poisoned and jailed. Ukraine occupied. How does that look?
Read 6 tweets
Garry Kasparov Profile picture
Feb 15
Scholz, another German embarrassment in Russia. The moment he said "Minsk" you knew he was there to screw Ukraine and do business. The only "security problem" is Putin. dw.com/en/ukraine-cri…
Scholz stood there at the press conference and said nothing when Putin said there's a genocide in Donbas, comparing it to NATO intervention in Yugoslavia. Pathetic. Sacrificing Ukraine's sovereignty for Russian gas.
A main reason Putin thought he could attack Ukraine now is because the Nord Stream 2 pipeline deal with Germany meant war wouldn't disrupt gas to Europe and his cash flow. Cash that also goes back to EU politicians' pockets, clearly.
Read 4 tweets
Garry Kasparov Profile picture
Feb 14
If Ukraine or NATO promise that Ukraine won’t join and Putin doesn’t invade again, he wouldn’t have anyway. The urge to find some way to compromise, a normal human instinct, isn’t something dictators possess. Conceding to a bully only encourages him.
Appeasers from Tucker and Gabbard to UK Labour, to French far right and left to Orban say—some as Putin sycophants, some in good faith stupidity—that Putin cares about NATO expansion when it has never been a factor in his 8-yr war on Ukraine and Europe.
It’s pathetic and self-destructive to run around to find some way to appease Putin when the only thing that changes his behavior is deterrence based targeting his money and his grip on power. Lavishing attention and groveling about NATO only emboldens him.
Read 6 tweets
Garry Kasparov Profile picture
Feb 10
Based on signals, I'm worried Putin's attack may come out of Donbas in the next couple of days. Whenever it comes, I expect it to be major but small enough for Western appeasers to say it doesn't qualify as the invasion they warned him against.
Putin is good at reading his opponents and taking the measure of their cowardice. He cannot afford to lose a major confrontation, so he advances on the edges so they can save face while doing nothing.
The greatest danger of not standing up against small provocations, as I've always warned, is that eventually many successes lead to overconfidence and the dictator losing that sense of danger and overstepping into a major conflict.
Read 4 tweets
Garry Kasparov Profile picture
Feb 3
Part of the usual pattern of aggression and appeasement. "Look what I can do if you don't give me what I want" and tossing toys out of the pram is annoying, but it gets worse if you actually give them what they want. They get stronger and more confident.
We will see more cyberattacks, disinfo campaigns and other hybrid war assaults as Putin demands concessions and attention. Escalation usually works for him because his opponents fold.
The appeasement cycle continues until the dictator oversteps, intoxicated by years of impunity and increasingly desperate at home. That's how small concessions lead to big wars. I detailed this historical process in 2015: thedailybeast.com/springtime-for…
Read 4 tweets
Garry Kasparov Profile picture
Jan 24
I'm glad to discuss Putin's latest aggression and how to stop him. But I said it all in my 2015 book Winter Is Coming. Even by then I was furious the West had done so little. Tragically, it's still valid. publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/garry-k…
I addressed Putin's war on Ukraine as a test for the US and the rest of the free world. As I've been saying since 2007, the longer you wait to deter a dictator, the higher the eventual price. Now a major war is looming.
Instead of running around in a panic at every Putin move, a strategic plan of deterrence by raising the costs of aggression and reducing his leverage should have been implemented in 2008 at the latest, when he invaded Georgia. The mask was off.
Read 6 tweets

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